Is this man really the best coach in the Big Ten West?

Previously: Pac-12 North, Pac-12 South, ACC Coastal (and Notre Dame), ACC Atlantic, Big 12, SEC East, SEC West

The Big Ten has now had two seasons in its new alignment and a clear picture of the dynamics in each division are emerging. The East has Ohio State, Michigan, and Michigan State, each led by some of the best coaches in college football – the East has sent a team to the playoff two times in two tries (same as the SEC West and ACC Atlantic). While Penn State struggles in the James Franklin era, and as long as the current coaches remain at OSU, UM, and MSU, the East will likely feature those three teams at the top, in whatever order.

The West is far less certain. A year ago, Iowa was the biggest surprise in the college football world during the regular season as they strung together twelve wins to start the season. They missed the playoff after conceding a late game-winning touchdown after a long, slow, backbreaking Michigan State drive in the Big Ten championship game, and were utterly destroyed by Stanford in the Rose Bowl. The Hawkeyes won five games by a single score last season against an easy schedule, but it was still a sensational season – though it may not be able to be replicated.

Big-picture, the West is unclear, for many reasons. The only historical powerhouse in the division (Nebraska) doesn’t seem capable of attaining anywhere near that level of success in their new conference. Mike Riley certainly doesn’t seem equipped to unlock their potential. Wisconsin lost a Rose Bowl-level coach in Bret Bielema and might not be able to find another for a while. More generally, even if programs like Iowa and Northwestern can put together very solid squads every so often, they, and all the other programs in the division, lack the recruiting and the top-level coaching requisite to establish themselves as dominant enough to stay atop the division.

There’s definitely room for the right coach at the right program to own the West in the future. Right now though, it’s unpredictable and should be pretty competitive – aside from Illinois (who may have made a great hire in Lovie Smith) and Purdue (NOPE), the rest of the division should find themselves with winning records and in bowl games, though no obvious frontrunner stands out to win ten games. Odds dictate that someone probably will, but it remains to be seen which program emerges from the muddled ranks of the “pretty good” to win the West in 2016.

[Team previews after the JUMP]

PFF has CJ Beathard as the best quarterback in the Big Ten (over JT Barrett)

Iowa

The discussion starts with Iowa, who’s the tentative frontrunner after the stellar 2015 campaign. Assuming that there’s a regression to the mean in close games and considering that Iowa’s playing a more difficult conference schedule, it’s safe to assume that there will be a step back of some kind. Still, there are indicators that point to another good Hawkeye team: CJ Beathard is back – 2,809 yards passing, 23 total touchdowns and just five picks are more than enough to solidify him as the best QB in the B1G West – as is most of Iowa’s defense, highlighted by All-American CB Desmond King.

In 2015, Iowa’s offense was just good enough as OC Greg Davis cobbled together a decent running game featuring now-departed Jordan Canzeri and LeShun Daniels Jr., who should get plenty of carries this season. With the departures of two linchpin interior linemen, Daniels and Akrum Wadley may find it tougher to move the ball on the ground, which will force Beathard to throw it more than he did last season. Most of his receiving corps will be new, but he does return senior Matt Vandenberg, who was his leading target last season. George Kittle could be a breakout player at tight end.

It will be critical for the Hawkeyes to establish some sort of a running game so they can avoid getting caught in down-and-distances that dictate a passing play. Beathard is mobile (and doesn’t get many designed runs, but still) and risk-averse, and does best when the offense has leverage because of a stable dose of running plays that move the chains. If he’s tasked with throwing it quite a bit to an underwhelming group of receivers in a Greg Davis offense, he’s gonna have a bad time.

Iowa’s defense should be good enough to turn games into low-scoring slugfests. King led the country in picks last season (with eight) and thrives in Iowa’s Cover 2 shell; he might not have the same amount of interceptions, but he’s more than good enough to completely shut down most #1 receivers on their schedule. Greg Mabin is a solid #2 corner as well. Josey Jewell is a productive middle linebacker in the Hawkeye 4-3 and racks up a ton of tackles. Several defensive linemen return as well, which should give Iowa a stout run defense.

The computer metrics and many people downplayed Iowa’s 12-0 start, and the Rose Bowl blowout may have provided some level of validation to those criticisms. Still, credit should be given to the Hawkeyes for what they accomplished last season and it feels like they might be underrated entering 2016. They’re not the clear favorite to win the West, but from my point of view, they’re as good a bet as anyone at this point.

OLB Vince Biegel is the stalwart of the Badger defense

Wisconsin

In Paul Chryst’s first season back in Madison as the head coach, Wisconsin turned in a ten-win season, something that’s become commonplace as the Badgers have more or less been the best program in what’s now the B1G West for a while now. After facing Alabama in week one (and losing 35-17), Wisconsin faced a pedestrian schedule – they won close on the road against Nebraska and Maryland and lost close at home against Iowa (10-6) and Northwestern (13-7, in which a late touchdown was incorrectly taken off the board). A win over USC in the Holiday Bowl got them to their final 10-3 mark, though building on that record in 2016 will be exceedingly difficult.

The schedule is the biggest reason for that. The Badgers open the season at Lambeau Field against LSU – who hired away Dave Aranda, Wisconsin’s DC in 2015 – and the Tigers are a legit playoff contender. Wisconsin has a brutal start to Big Ten play after missing out on the best teams in the East for a few years; their first four conference games are at Michigan State, at Michigan, vs. Ohio State at home, and at Iowa. The last month of the season features the dregs of the West and might be crucial for bowl eligibility as the Badgers are likely to struggle against the best teams from the other division.

Stunningly, the Wisconsin ground game was far from its typical standard, averaging just 4.4 yards per carry (108th nationally). An injury to RB Corey Clement – a guy who had a clear next-man-up vibe behind standout Melvin Gordon – forced Dare Ogunbowale into the starting role. Most of the problems started up front, as the assembly line of monstrous offensive linemen mysteriously halted a year ago. Four starters will be back, as will Clement, so the ground game should improve. Unfortunately for Wisconsin, adequate starting QB Joel Stave and leading WR Alex Erickson depart, leaving questions in the passing game.

Wisconsin conceded less than 14 points in two of its three losses, evidence that the Badgers had a stout defense a year ago. Even though the defensive coordinator is gone, many on-field parts return: 3-4 OLB Vince Biegel is as productive of a pass rusher as there is in the Big Ten, most defensive line contributors are back, and TJ Edwards and Jack Cichy form the ILB backbone of Wisconsin’s great run defense. CB Sojourn Shelton is the best player in the secondary, but there are more personnel losses from there than from any other defensive position group.

It will be tough to tell if Wisconsin takes a step forward because of their schedule. In order to compete for the West with the worst possible cross-division matchups will take a leap forward (which will require a resurgence in the running game).

Tommy Armstrong is pretty solid when he’s not throwing picks

Nebraska

After firing perpetually 9-4 Bo Pelini, Nebraska hired Mike Riley away from Oregon State – who he’d built into a pretty good program despite falling off a little bit at the end. His first season in Lincoln was mostly a disaster: they lost six regular season games by just a score in different excruciating fashions and somehow were defeated by Purdue, 55-45. The final record was 6-7; the Huskers did upset Michigan State at home (one of few games in which the stars aligned for them, not against them) and won over UCLA in the bowl game after showing a newfound ability to run the ball. On the aggregate, it was a very disappointing year.

Perhaps the bowl game foreshadows a 2016 offense that takes advantage of QB Tommy Armstrong’s skills. Last season, he was frequently tasked with throwing the ball downfield, which led to a low completion percentage, a high yards per completion number, and 16 interceptions. Armstrong runs the ball well – against UCLA, he had 10 carries for 76 yards and a touchdown – so Riley might be forced out of his comfort zone to accommodate a run-heavy offense with a dual-threat quarterback. Seemingly by default, Armstrong is one of the better quarterbacks in the Big Ten and could be in for a better-than-expected senior season.

He still has a solid receiving corps. Jordan Westerkamp has had his share of insane catches in Lincoln and is on track to re-write some career receiving records at Nebraska; Brandon Reilly, Alonzo Moore, Stanley Morgan, and De’Mornay Pierson-El provide plenty of depth at the position. They’d be a good group in a pass-heavy offense, but Armstrong’s decision-making makes passing risky for the Huskers. Terrell Newby is a good scatback for what Riley likes to do and Devine Ozigbo would work well as a full-time I-back as a powerful option. The offensive line breaks in three new starters.

Defensively, there are questions. The Huskers had a pass defense prone to conceding big plays a year ago, and with the level of inexperience on the defensive line, there will be a lot of pressure on the secondary to perform better. Nebraska loses Maliek Collins and Vincent Valentine from the DT position; Freedom Akinmoladun is the main candidate to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks to give that secondary some relief. Third-year starter Nate Gerry is the headliner of that secondary (and not only the Huskers’ 2015 interceptions leader, but their leading tackler too); corners Joshua Kalu and Chris Jones need to perform better.

Nebraska has an intriguing non-conference game against Oregon and has a Big Ten schedule that features road trips to Madison, Columbus, and Iowa City, but it feels like they’re the strongest candidate in the league to regress to the mean in close games, which would indicate that the Huskers could surprise this season and win the West.

LB Anthony Walker totaled 122 tackles and 20.5 TFL(!) last season

Northwestern

Starting with a surprising 16-6 upset over eventual Rose Bowl champ Stanford in week one, Northwestern exceeded expectations. They won ten games, and even though the losses were ugly – 38-0 at Michigan, 40-10 home vs. Iowa, 45-6 against Tennessee in the bowl – Northwestern had one of its better seasons. The Cats had a ton of close wins; in one four week stretch, they posted win margins of 2, 2, 7, and 6. They’re pretty much the inverse of Nebraska – expect things to regress to the mean in the other direction.

Things have progressively gotten worse under OC Mick McCall, and many of the same guys will be reprising their roles from last season. QB Clayton Thorson has some mobility, but he completed only half his passes and threw more interceptions than touchdowns; the decided lack of a passing game was a severe issue in 2015. Justin Jackson had a breakout sophomore campaign, but he only totaled 4.5 yards per carry and his lofty yardage numbers were attributable to the sheer volume of carries he had – fifth-most nationally. Most of the offensive line is back. Thorson will be breaking in new targets at the WR and “super-back” (sort of like an H-Back) positions. Unimaginative scheme and playcalling will probably lead to them relying on Jackson too much again.

Northwestern’s success came pretty much entirely from its defense. The defensive line improved drastically – and they have both starting DTs back, as well as former blue-cheap Ifeadi Odenigbo at DE – but the real star was Anthony Walker: he had 20.5 tackles for a loss and is the backbone of a solid Northwestern run defense. A few members of what was a great secondary (though, in retrospect, they played few teams who could really throw the ball at all) are gone but S Godwin Igwebuike is back and makes plays from the last line of defense. Walker is what ties things together and he’s only a junior – possibly an All-American candidate.

With a few tough road games (Michigan State, Ohio State, and Iowa), Northwestern is unlikely to replicate their 10-3 record from a year ago. The defense is certainly good enough to play at that level but they’ll need some life in what was a poorly-managed offense. Thorson could improve with another year of experience, though it’s hard to imagine that things will get that much better unless a change happens at offensive coordinator.

Todd McShay has Mitch Leidner as one of the best QBs in the draft. Mitch. Leidner.

Minnesota

Like Nebraska, Minnesota finished a 5-7 season with a bowl appearance and actually won – the Gophers might have had their best win of the season (over… Central Michigan). They were close in losses against TCU, Michigan, and Iowa, but ultimately they weren’t able to beat anybody in the Big Ten other than the lowliest programs in the West, Illinois and Purdue. Of course, Jerry Kill’s health-related absence and eventual midseason retirement was the biggest story: he’d turned things around from the disastrous Tim Brewster era and Minnesota promoted his defensive coordinator, trying to maintain continuity. While Tracy Claeys was ultimately an underwhelming permanent hire, it’s easy to see the rationale.

New offensive coordinator Jay Johnson comes in from Louisiana-Lafayette and will retain much of the same general strategy that the Gophers have been using for the last several years. Leidner will now be a fourth-year starter and even though he’s had pedestrian numbers (14 TDs / 11 INTs, 6 TDs on the ground in 2015), he’s a solid complement to the running backs in the ground game and seemingly has the physical tools to improve as a passer. Sophomore backs Shannon Brooks and Rodney Smith will be a one-two punch for the next several years in Minneapolis and tight end Brandon Lingen could emerge as Leidner’s go-to target. The line loses two starters and replaces them with JUCO transfers.

Minnesota’s defense is one of the best at preventing big plays and most of that comes from the secondary; while a few standouts are gone from the 2015 defensive backfield, corner Jalen Byrick and former walk-on safety Adekunle Ayinde are proven commodities. The Gophers get both of their starting tackles back, but lose both ends. Linebackers Cody Poock and Jack Lynn were productive tacklers and help form one of the better linebacking units in the Big Ten West. Claeys’s expertise is on the defensive side of the ball and he promoted the former secondary coach to coordinator, so stability should continue for the Gopher defense.

Wes Lunt has the potential to be a great quarterback

Illinois

After firing Ron Zook, Illinois made the mistake of hiring Tim Beckman away from Toledo. But, because of allegations that he was abusing players, Illinois was able to fire him for cause. They eventually decided to take the interim tag off of promoted offensive coordinator Bill Cubit, but he was suddenly fired by a new athletic director in March. The Illini then hired former NFL coach Lovie Smith, a Tampa 2 guru who once took the Chicago Bears to the Super Bowl (making him one of two coaches in the Big Ten to do so). Lovie has quite a task ahead of him as Beckman’s teams were consistently mediocre-at-best, but this is the most exciting hire Illinois has made in some time and if Smith can adapt to the eccentricities of the college game, there could be something big coming up in Champaign.

For now, they’ll set their targets on making a bowl game. QB Wes Lunt is a big senior who’s thrown for 28 touchdowns to just 9 picks during his twenty starts for the Illini; an injury to receiver Mikey Dudek and the departure of Geronimo Allison will force Lunt to look for some new targets. Ke’Shawn Vaughn was an impressive back as a freshman. On defense, the headliner is end Dawuane Smoot, who might be the best pure pass rusher in the Big Ten. Illinois had a good pass defense a year ago and that plays to Lovie’s strengths as a coach.

Pictured: Ross-Ade Stadium

Purdue

Just wait until Kevin Sumlin comes back home.