Fall Roster Overanalysis 2016!

You can jump now Steve:

Michigan has finally posted their rosters with new weights and freshman numbers and such. I haven't included spring weights this year since they didn't update those on the roster; listed weights as recruits or early enrollees are in the 2015 column, with the recruits in parentheses. The exits of Canteen and Pallante have been covered.

Remember the rules:

• All weight gain is burly muscle that won't slow them down AT ALL
• All weight loss is a guy in the best shape of his life who's going to do crazy fast things as his new svelte self.

NEW RULE FROM NOW UNTIL THE END OF HARBAUGH:

• Believe any of it at your own risk. Harbaugh wouldn't hesitate to list Nate Johnson 6'11"/375 pounds if he thought the confusion might gain a yard this year.

TO THE SPREADSHEETS:

[Things of GREAT IMPORTANT after the JUMP OF GREAT IMPORTANCE thing.]

ITEMS OF INTEREST

THESE ROSTERS ARE LYING LIARS WHO LIE WITH LYE: Truth, although part of the dissonance I believe is we haven't had any updates for a year. For example Ty Isaac is listed as gaining two pounds; he probably played closer to his 2015 Spring weight of 240 last year. Was Ty Wheatley really 290 last year? Asiasi doesn't look 287.

GRANT NEWSOME IS HAPPENING! He's up 18 pounds and was 300 already last year. However his spring performance that has us all on edge wasn't really about getting blown off the ball as much as footwork. Still: 6'7"/318 is a big thing to be in the way.

Lawrence Marshall at SDE is probably happening. He too is up 18 pounds, for a listed weight of 268. That is fine for an "Anchor" (strongside defensive end), whose job is to be part-DT and keep Peppers from having to thump like a neck-rolled linebacker. However it also probably means he's not going to be the pass-rushing weakside guy Michigan needed. His performance in the Spring Game made it look like this is for the best for him; he was technically sound and held up against blocks. This probably won't matter until next year, when Gary will take more snaps at 3-tech and Wormley is gone.

Jourdan Lewis is the best. He's up 11 pounds, which puts him at 5'11/186…and the best cornerback in the country.

Big gains for potential contributors: Chase Winovich (+10), David Dawson (+10), Mike McCray (+8), Drake Harris (+7), and Mo Ways (+7) are all probably good news, though Harris, at 188, is still working from behind; the rest have probably reached their ideal weight or (Winovich) are well on their way.

Brandon Watson passing 200 (he's up 12) I don't know what to make of. He's now close to the size of the possession receivers it would be his specialty to jam and erase, but it probably doesn't help the speed issue that's apparently kept him off the field.

It's not noted above but Kingston Davis is listed at 245, up from 225 in spring.

There's less of him: Wheatley (-15), JBB (-14), and Taco (-10) all seem like good things. Wheatley looked a lot thinner than the nearly 300 he was listed at last year so that's just reality closing in. Bushell-Beatty was at 325 last year and looked…not great at the spring game. Taco isn't going to lose any leverage at 272 as a weakside end, and that might take his speed to ludicrous. OTOH Mone being down 10 pounds to 310 could be he's in great shape or that he's still working his way back a bit.

Oh and Peppers is listed 3 pounds lighter, and as a "LB/DB." Get ready to laugh at the first Twitter person who thinks this means he isn't Clint Copenhaver enough.

GROWWWW: A lot of standing still from the upperclassmen is to be expected, but Keith Washington (170), Shelton Johnson (212) Reuben Jones (222) and Jared Wangler (229) remain 10-40 pounds lighter than the ideal weight for their respective positions.

Johnson in particular shouldn't still look like a DB if he's going to play on the line, and that goes to a lesser degree for Jones, who's apparently back to linebacker after flipping between that and DE in spring.

The redshirted OL, Ulizio (291) and Runyan (304), haven't gained a pound; if those weights weren't already average for OL I'd be concerned but they are.

Some of the freshmen are way big: Ben Bredenson is 310, which is a full grown lineman, and while Onwenu is just 350 that's still the largest freshman to ever arrive in Ann Arbor. To be honest I don't trust a lot of these weights. Is Eubanks really up to 240 already?

People are Linebackers. Reuben Jones I mentioned, and you already heard about Wyatt Shallman, who's wearing #40. Also among the freshmen, in addition to Elysee Mbem-Bosse and Devin Bush, Devil Gil (expected), Josh Uche (expected) and Carlo Kemp (half-expected) are "LB"s on the roster. Gil is a linebacker and always was (his film is him playing linebacker) but that will still surprise people who saw recruiting sites leaving him as a safety. Uche and Kemp I bet are OLBs right now—like how Michigan played Frank Clark and Brennan Beyer at SAM their first year.

Some walk-on weights I didn't show that might be relevant: Jordan Glasgow (210) is up 15 pounds (and is a Glasgow) so this Kovacsian Glasgow thing is still totally happening. Linebacker Jack Dunaway is up to 222, which is on the low range of plausible for the middle spot. However walk-on offensive lineman Greg Froelich is down 26 pounds…to 257, and Ben Pliska is down 7 to 276, so it appears there's no immediate OL help coming from there.

Numbers mean nothing. I've been beating this drum ever since the freshmen began tweeting out photos of lockers with other guys' numbers. I'm not even going to entertain your "omigod there are 53 guys wearing numbers <30!" emotions because three guys wearing #1 etc. is obviously not going to stick.

THEORY: Harbaugh is letting anyone who wants a number compete for it: Whoever wins a starting job first probably gets to wear the number he wants, and if the next guy earns a role on the field this year he'll have to take a different number. It makes things annoying for those of us making NCAA rosters, but Harbaugh don't care.

In case you care, here are the current competitions:

• #1 (offense): Kekoa (not listed as Dylan) Crawford and Nick Eubanks. Guessing Crawford wins this since he's the most polished of the freshman receivers and several will earn playing time, while Eubanks is Funchess-raw at a position that has plenty of seam threats. Mbem-Bosse is apparently wearing it on defense since the Braylon purists only have two fists to shake.
• #2 (offense): Ahmir Mitchell and Devin Asiasi. This is the converse of the Crawford-Eubanks battle. Mitchell looked a long way from playing time in spring while Asiasi is a play-immediately, AJ Williams-type OL-ish tight end; only Tyrone Wheatley is challenging him for snaps.
• #7 (defense): Shelton Johnson and Khaleke Hudson. If you're a betting man, take Hudson, who's probably already on the two-deep at safety, could be useful in multiple roles on special teams, and won't even make us mad if he sees the field this year because of it. Johnson is the same size as Hudson, and is a defensive lineman.
• #8 (offense): John O'Korn and Tyrone Wheatley Jr. Harbaugh is also making O'Korn fight someone for a bed each night, and has tasked several walk-ons with trying to steal O'Korn's Cheerios every morning. Last Christmas his gifts were air-dropped across the Savannah and labeled "Mufasa."
• #9 (defense): Mike McCray and raw as green onions linebacker Devil Gil. Yeah.
• #10 (offense): Zach Gentry and Nate Johnson. Kind of interesting this one, since Gentry has a year, is up to a totally plausible playing weight of 244, and some practice buzz, but has Jake Butt and Ian Bunting in his way. The true freshman I described as "actually 5'11 Jeremy Gallon" has a shorter route to playing time in the slot with just Grant Perry established there. However in a Harbaugh offense the fifth tight end and the second slot receiver probably see the field just as often.
• #10 (defense): Devin Bush and Josh Uche. I think Don Brown wants to get Uche on the field this year, however Devin Bush has been ticketed for the third linebacker spot since his commitment.
• #12 (offense): Alex Malzone hasn't gotten any bigger and every Harbaugh recruiting year makes his path to playing time tougher. Chris Evans is a speedster without a position and could end up on defense eventually. This battle could easily go into 2018.

  By the way, Brandon Williams is STILL the last player to play out his entire eligibility at Michigan wearing this number. Gant came closest but he just moved on with a year left to play. We'll see if Evans or Malzone can do it (or if a freshman switches).

• #15 (special teams): Winovich has changed numbers four times and positions three times. This year he's an obvious special teamer, which won't matter unless Quinn Nordin burns his redshirt for kickoffs or something. If Winovich is the starting WDE next year it becomes moot.
• #23 (defense): Tyree Kinnel is a personal fave-rave and is going to spend this year being groomed to start in 2017. Josh Metellus might play this year because free safety just needs bodies; if he burns his redshirt his blue one almost certainly will have a different number on it.
• #40 (offense): 5'11/250 fullback Nick Volk versus 5'11/170 Kenneth Sloss. If you're favoring Sloss you know nothing about Harbaughffense. If you're favoring Volk you know nothing about Sloss.

Nothing about this post matters. Unless you play NCAA 2014 still.