Upon Further Review: Defense vs Florida

It lives part II! When Homesure Lending sponsored these posts, Matt admonished me that his sponsorship was contingent on me actually doing all of them. So, yeah, next time you see him buy him a beer and get a mortgage. Matt just pinged me in case a refi made sense, demonstrating that 1) he's always on the lookout if he can save you money and 2) rates must be even more absurdly low than they were a couple years ago.

Matt's got a ticket offer going for a Michigan football or basketball game. If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call. (No pants required.)

Formation notes: Michigan spent almost the entire game in nickel, as you would expect against a spread. There were only a few plays on which they deployed odd formations. Here RJS is a standup DT in a dime package on third and eleven:

This was "dime standup DT," because sometimes obvious is obvious. Michigan also had a couple plays where they walked out a bonafide linebacker over WR bunches:

But it was mostly standard stuff as Florida failed to threaten those formations.

Substitution notes: Peppers missed this game with a broken hand. Michigan moved Lewis inside and played Clark and Stribling on the outside. Thomas and Hill rotated at one safety spot next to Wilson. LB was the usual Morgan/Bolden pairing with both guys getting spotted by Gedeon.

DL was variable, with Wormley seeing time at three tech and SDE; Charlton was at WDE and SDE; RJS got a lot of WDE time. Hurst and Henry started at DT and got the bulk of the snaps. Marshall saw some snaps at WDE. Godin and Strobel saw scattered snaps on the interior. Brady Pallante even got a few plays in.

[After THE JUMP: way less data than the offense provided.]

This was supposed to go up yesterday.

Cumong man, I'm making it all polished since I've got the time.

This had better be so polished I can see infinite reflections of myself spanning the width and breadth of space and time.

I... it is?

We'll see.

This wasn't quite as good a performance as the offense's, especially given the relative strength of the opposition unit. But it wasn't bad, either:

• 12 plays, 55 yards, fake FG fails
• 8 plays, 75 yards, TD
• four and out
• 6 plays, 48 yards, INT
• three and out
• three and out
• four and out, fake punt fails
• three and out

There wasn't much to learn here. Harris was so limited as a passer that the battle between Stribling and Clark never materialized, and UF's offensive line was not able to cope with the starting DL long enough to get to the increasingly depleted backups. Michigan put those backups out voluntarily and UF made no effort to keep them on the field with tempo. Aside from that wacky touchdown Florida didn't have many ideas to cope with their deficiencies. On their first snap they motioned in a 240 pound tight end to block Chris Wormley.

Analyzing that isn't much more complicated than "big man hit little man, little man folds up into origami poop emoji." Even though it was just 14-7 when Treon Harris threw his boggling interception...

...that felt like game over. It was.

The offense's grinding dominance gave the defense the luxury of watching the great bulk of the second half from the bench. After the break the defense saw a total of 13 play. As a result the numbers on the

CHA[finishes eating human heart]RT

chart are as low as the O's were high.

Michigan wasn't as dominant in coverage as they were for most of the season; they were still good but not +33 or whatever like they were against PSU. The DL was its usual self; the linebackers were middling. Pretty much the only thing Florida did well was have Treon Harris run around on broken plays. He had scrambles of 9, 17, 20, and 22 yards. Those four plays were almost 60% of the yards UF gained on the ground. A couple of their sizeable pickups on the ground were little dump routes on which offensive pass interference made the yards for 'em.

That Gedeon number is alarming.

Sample sizes were low, especially for non starters, and Gedeon had the misfortune to miss two tackles that collectively added 20-30 yards to UF's totals. You should keep that in mind but don't overrate the importance of those two plays relative to solid outings in the middle of the season when he was starting because of various ridiculous targeting calls. As always, the numbers are there to provide a baseline via which to discuss people and aren't a be-all, end-all.

The defensive line numbers were... not.

This was Penn State 2.0 with various Harris scrambles featuring in the role of "Saquon Barkley takes zone stretch 60 yards." UF did nothing else because they could not get the DL blocked and even when they did okay, Morgan was flying up into the lead blocker and giving sorta-blocked guys the time to rally.

Mo Hurst had a good game in the way he usually does:

There was a clear dichotomy between his performances against teams that couldn't handle that first step and those who could. Against the UFs and PSUs of the world Hurst crushed it. Against Indiana and OSU not so much. It's easy to lose sight of the fact that Hurst was a 280 pound redshirt sophomore and get fusty about the downsides; the upside is really good and not that far away. Earlier this summer he tweeted out that he'd hit 295. A little more responsible when people try to reach him and a little better able to stand up to double teams and that Pro Football Focus first round projection is very achievable. (After 2017, please.)

Charlton got a lot of playing time at a couple different spots and also did well. This is against a TE, so the DOD is low; still impressive instant zip around the guy:

This was aided by a fumbled snap but is still Charlton getting the LT off balance and then ripping down inside him:

(This was the grounding penalty they overturned for extremely dubious reasons.) His impact was limited by the scanty number of pocket passing snaps UF risked. On a per-opportunity basis this was about as good as the rest of his late-season surge.

Finally, I continue to think that Matt Godin can be a contributor even with the depth Michigan will field. He had a slick interior pass rush towards the end of the game; while he's never been good at holding up to double teams he should continue to improve, as players do. I'd be relatively positive about him if he was projected to start. As the #2/3 guy at three-tech or SDE he's an undeniable plus.

What did Michigan do in Peppers's absence?

They moved Lewis inside to slot corner and ran with both Stribling and Clark. Moving Lewis inside was an interesting experiment. He did all right against the run; he's no Peppers but here he helps out by driving his blocker into the RB:

The contrast between Lewis and Bolden there as they both take on size-appropriate opposition is instructive.

Lewis is highly unlikely to reprise that role much next year, but I could see passing down situations where Michigan decides to flip "linebacker" Peppers out to cornerback and puts Lewis's superior quickness against guys in the slot. Peppers is less likely to make this play:

Peppers has done that on a couple of outside routes when he can play press and line up to the inside; Lewis is playing off and with outside leverage and still gets there. Off coverage was not a Peppers strength a year ago, and that's usually what you're running in the slot. Or they could go with a quasi-dime with all four of Peppers, Lewis, Clark, and Stribling on the field simultaneously.

I clipped this item since it's incredibly rare: Lewis getting straight up beat.

That is one of the few completions he gave up all year on which he's not in position to make the throw and/or catch difficult. It happens even to the best of 'em.

Any clarity about the Stribling/Clark battle going on opposite him?

Not really, because Treon Harris. Clark was there to break up a pinpoint pass to the endzone:

That's a play on which Clark's unusual length serves him well. Unfortunately on a play earlier on that drive he drifted away from a pressure-induced pop-up and almost allowed a UF WR to come back to the ball.

Stribling meanwhile had an impressive play in zone coverage to take away a throw that seemed wide open:

Zone awareness is an open question for most of this secondary since Michigan was so heavy man to man last year. While they figure to be heavy M2M again, it won't to be such an extreme extent; there will be more opportunities to make—or not make—plays like this.

Something something safeties.

Safeties didn't have much to do; Hill did add to his reel of solid open-field tackles late on:

And his well-timed blitz put Harris out of his misery for good:

This concludes relevant safety play.

Don't you have anything else to say?

I mean... no? Michigan's DL was dominant in a game they were expected to be. The LBs played about like they did all year give or take a couple of missed tackles; the secondary was barely relevant. There weren't any new guys pushing through or dramatic changes in ability. There weren't even many plays. It was just kind of... there.

Heroes?

Pick a starting DL. Morgan had a nice sendoff as well. Godin may press for playing time next year despite the outrageous DL depth.

Maybe not so heroic?

Gedeon missed a couple of big tackles.

What does it mean for 2016?

Not much. More data that this DL will eat up any subpar OL they come across but I think we knew that already. Also there will be a new DC this fall.

Lewis is a potential slot corner on passing downs. He looked good in that role. He is not an elite run defender in space like Peppers, but on third and ten he's a better bet to stick in the pocket of a guy he has to play in off coverage because the slot's not lining up on the LOS. Meanwhile you can either stick Peppers outside—quite a luxury, that—or play a quasi-dime where he's covering a back or TE.

Gedeon is probably going to be fine. Again, the negative number there is based mostly on two plays where he missed tackles. Not ideal, not doom for his career.