Draftageddon 2016: Flexing Biceps Edition

We are drafting Big Ten teams because "Top 100 players in the Big Ten" #content wouldn't make us hate each other nearly as much.

Previously on Draftageddon:

1. Rounds 1-2: A Heisman candidate QB and the reigning Thorpe winner go after two members of Michigan's secondary. (M players: Peppers, Lewis, Butt)

2. Rounds 3-4: An underwhelming first swing through receivers, and lots of linemen. (Chesson, Cole, Wormley, Glasgow)

3. Rounds 5-6: A Michigan second-teamer goes before Purdue J.J. Watt. (Charlton, Hurst)

4. Rounds 7-8: Hodor. (Taco, Hurst)

5. Rounds 9-11: We go on a mini Iowa binge, and Brian takes a true freshman (YTTF).

How things stand:

We ran three rounds last time so now Brian gets to kick off.

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BRIAN: Round 12, Pick 1: RB LJ Scott, MSU

Dude's gonna be a handful for awhile.

O: RB LJ Scott(MSU), TE Jake Butt(M), WR Jordan Westerkamp (NEB), OL Cole Croston(IA)

D: DE Tyquan Lewis(OSU), DE Rashan Gary(M), DT Chris Wormley(M), DT Malik McDowell(MSU). LB Raekwon McMillan (OSU), LB Anthony Walker (NW), CB Gareon Conley(OSU), CB Will Likely (MD).

Everyone else already has a tailback but I know these crafty bastards and can't wait any longer before one of them spite-picks Scott as a wildcard. Everything you need to know about Scott in two clips. Clip one:

Clip two:

(start it at 2:28)

Scott is half dump truck, half ballerina, and he's going to blow up in year two. Scott averaged almost 5 YPC last year as a true freshman behind MSU's M.A.S.H. unit of an offensive line, leading MSU in rushing yards with nearly 700. I'm a little leery that Gerald Holmes and Madre London will continue to siphon carries away from him, but since neither of those guys holds a candle to Scott he should easily surpass 200 carries—I mean, it's not like MSU is going to be throwing much this year.

Scott's drawing Le'Veon Bell comparisons and... yeah. I can see that. Dude is 240. PFF doesn't have much on him but did note that after three weeks he was averaging a very Bell-like 3.5 yards after contact. He's going to make the person who took Justin Jackson again feel bad, just like every time someone takes Justin Jackson.

[After THE JUMP: Spartan family dynasties. And let the Nate Gerry argument begin.]

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SETH: Round 12, Pick 2: Godwin Igwebuike, safety, Northwestern

Offense: QB J.T. Barrett (OSU), RB Corey Clement (Wis), WR Chris Godwin (PSU), WR Simmie Cobbs (IN), OC Mason Cole (M), OC Sean Welsh (Iowa), OG Billy Price (OSU)

Defense: NT Bryan Mone (M), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), MLB Nyeem Wartman-White (PSU), FS Godwin Igwebuike, CB Desmond King (Iowa),

Specialists: KR/PR King

While we are tapping positions nobody's touched, we've got to draft eight safeties out of this conference and haven't taken one yet. The best we've got is...? I don't like Nate Gerry, a guy who made the PFF Top 100 but gives up an awful play for every three B+ ones; PFF admits their volume-based coverage numbers distort things for an iffy tackler who's just "around the ball."

It's certainly not Montae "I didn't come here to play awareness" Nicholson, despite the SpartanWeb believing he's the man to lead them to a 13-0 start. Not even Penn State's Marcus Allen, who will surely get drafted but has the same boner rate as Stevie Brown. From there it gets ugly. Like "Athlon put a Hoosier on its 3rd team ugly":

Well how about a RS freshman who replaced the boring guy Brian drafts every year and immediately won national DB of the week? That guy might be pretty good:

"But the most impressive play was when he chased down Melvin Gordon the second play of the game. He came from the other side of the field."

Igwebuike's dead sprint and ankle tackle of Gordon on a 58-yard run might have saved a touchdown. If that didn't, his leaping, one-handed interception at the goal line certainly did."

(He had two more INTs in that game by the way.)

The 4-star OSU legacy is our third Pickerington player after Butt (same school) and Taco (Central), and like them Godwin had a breakout 2015, finishing second behind Walker in team tackles after starting the year even with Walker in "guys NU SBNation writers are excited about." Walker proved the better football player, probably, but Teddy Greenstein found that Godwin is much more refined in his film tastes.

Northwestern safety Godwin Igwebuike is a "Lord of the Rings" buff. Linebacker Anthony Walker prefers a radically different genre, calling his favorite movie a "tossup between 'Remember the Titans' and 'Friday Night Lights.'"

As for scouting opinions that don't come backed by Medill degrees, Ace caught the Cats against Minnesota for FFFF last year:

[Walker] missed multiple tackles and got out of position a couple times, especially when asked to play in space—he went on the wrong side of a block when shaded over the slot on a bubble screen that would've resulted in a big play if not for a great tackle from safety Godwin Igwebuike.

Igwebuike and Traevon Henry both had great games in run support, helped by the fact they could play 8-10 yards off the ball since Minnesota was no threat to throw the ball downfield. Both are solid wrap-up tacklers and they take good angles to the ball. As for their ability in coverage, I can only go by the numbers, which show they've been great at preventing big plays.

We discussed putting a star on Igwebuike in my diagram, but didn't feel the Minnesota passing game provided enough data. The ensuing Saturday in the Big House Northwestern again played Quarters with hyperaggressive safeties all game, and Igwebuike emerged totally unscathed. Michigan broke four big plays against that:

1. Walker got suckered into the backfield by a swinging Smith and gave up 32 yards and a first and goal to Butt
2. Harris let Kerridge blow by him for 34 yards.
3. Walker got way out of position and Chesson ran right by him off a curl.
4. 4. VanHoose latched onto Smith after a 6-yard gain and got a 13-yard ride.

Meanwhile Igwebuike ended the Karan Higdon experiment before it broke the line of scrimmage (see video at top) and the stuffed a Chesson end-around that always worked before. Best safety in the conference? Hard to say with Michigan and OSU full of X-factors. But no doubt Godwin's a good one.

Bonus: team nickname now not in doubt.

(Sorry that ran long; I'll make it up on my next pick.)

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ADAM: Round 12, Pick 3: John O'Korn, QB, Michigan

[Eric Upchurch]

Offense: Pat Elflein (C/OG-OSU), Dan Feeney (OG-Indiana), Amara Darboh (WR-Michigan), Justin Jackson (RB-Northwestern), Brandon Reilly (WR-Nebraska), John O'Korn (QB-Michigan)

Defense: Jourdan Lewis (CB-Michigan), Dawuane Smoot (DE-Illinois), Taco Charlton (DE-Michigan), Maurice Hurst (DT-Michigan), Vince Biegel (OLB-Wisconsin), Matthew Harris (CB-Northwestern)

Another year, another time I take a QB who hasn't locked down a starting job yet. At least this time I went with a guy who's got at least a 50% chance of starting instead of 33.3%.  If you've read Hail to the Victors you'll know that O'Korn was our unanimous choice for the guy who will eventually win the QB competition and for good reason. O'Korn may have started biffing screen passes in his disappointing sophomore campaign at Houston, but he never stopped making plays like this:

We also saw the upside his mobility brings to the offense in the spring game, where he ran often because split-squad scrimmages do quite a number on already depleted position groups that hold out presumptive starters. Plays similar to the following litter O'Korn's Houston film; he works through his reads quickly before taking off:

Then there's the Harbaugh component. Last season he started working with Jake Rudock in early August, and the first few months of their working relationship produced up-and-down results.

Meh completion percentage, meh yards per attempt, and a bad touchdown:interception ratio left us resigned to Rudock being just a stopgap, less like a gleaming Golden Gate Bridge to next season and more a nondescript freeway overpass. And then...the Harbaughning.

Rudock's in-season ascension was nothing short of miraculous. His yards per attempt skyrocketed and his touchdown:interception ratio was sterling against some of the best pass defenses in the nation: per S&P+, Ohio State finished fourth, Florida fifth, and Penn State eighth. His lowest QB rating in the last five games of the year would have been his second highest in the first eight games. He finished the year first in the conference in completion percentage, fourth in yards per attempt, and second in passing efficiency rating.

Imagine what Harbaugh can do with a guy who's had a full year to learn the system and gone through a one-month crash course in piloting the first-team offense this spring, let alone a guy who passed for 7 yards per attempt and had nearly a 3:1 touchdown:interception ratio as a freshman.

Also worth noting: I could take Tommy Armstrong Jr., whose mobility is appealing but not so appealing as to supplant the slightly less mobile guy with the best QB coach in the country. Wes Lunt was also on my draft board, which says everything about the availability of proven quarterbacks in the conference.

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ACE: Round 12, Pick 4: Curtis Samuel, SLOT/RB, Ohio State

OFFENSE: QB CJ Beathard (IA), RB Saquon Barkley (PSU), WR Jehu Chesson (M), SLOT Curtis Samuel (OSU), TE George Kittle (IA), OG Jacob Bailey (IU), WEAPON Jabrill Peppers (M)

DEFENSE: NT Ryan Glasgow (M), DT Jake Replogle (PU), DE Sam Hubbard (OSU), ILB Josey Jewell (IA), OLB/NICKEL Jabrill Peppers (M), CB Jalen Myrick (MN)

SPECIAL TEAMS: KR Jabrill Peppers (M), PR Jabrill Peppers (M)

Ohio State has to get the ball to somebody this year after losing Ezekiel Elliott and their entire starting receiving group. Curtis Samuel has the potential to cover for a lot of those losses:

"Every time we watched him on film, I thought he was a really good player who sure seemed to make a lot of plays. He has some of the versatility of Jalin Marshall and some of the positives of Ezekiel Elliott too." -- Big Ten defensive coach

Samuel started his OSU career as a tailback, then moved to H-back (the Harvin position) last year; the guess here is he sticks at H-back, and even if he returns to the backfield, he should move around the formation quite a bit. He’s been very effective in limited time so far in his career. As a freshman in 2014, he averaged 6.6 YPC with six TDs on 58 carries. Elliott’s development into a workhorse back and Braxton Miller’s move to H-back cut into his time as a sophomore, but he still managed 132 yards and a score on only 17 rushes and averaged 8.3 yards on his 35 receiving targets.

My main concern with Samuel was his downfield receiving, and the highlights show he’s capable of making some spectacular grabs—he’s more than a screen and end-around maven. Samuel should get a huge uptick in touches and could very well be OSU’s top skill player this year; I’m surprised he fell this far, even with the positional uncertainty and short track record. Then again, I drafted Dontre Wilson two years ago; I think things will go better this time around.

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Brian: Some dudes i am srsly surprised are still on the board are still on the board

Ace: I’m sure I left some guys out there. Was very surprised Samuel was available.

Brian: He's all hat and no cattle ATM.

Ace: At this point in the draft, I’ll take a player OSU people are talking up as their #1 skill position guy. Main concern was his downfield catching and his highlights show he’s pretty capable.

Seth: Main concern is they can never just stick with one Percy:

They get a lot of production but even when you've got Braxton Miller averaging a first down every time the ball goes his way, no individual gets more than 60 touches or so.

BiSB: If you were going Ohio State you-don't-love-me-you-love-the-idea-of-me multi-position athletic types, I'm surprised you didn't go with Torrance Gibson. Or has the Dontre Wilson wound not scabbed over yet?

Ace: Bingo. My impression was Gibson is still probably a year away from being an integral part of the offense. They’ve already been working Samuel in quite a bit.

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ACE: Round 13, Pick 1: Nate Gerry, safety, Nebraska

OFFENSE: QB CJ Beathard (IA), RB Saquon Barkley (PSU), WR Jehu Chesson (M), SLOT Curtis Samuel (OSU), TE George Kittle (IA), OG Jacob Bailey (IU), WEAPON Jabrill Peppers (M)

DEFENSE: NT Ryan Glasgow (M), DT Jake Replogle (PU), DE Sam Hubbard (OSU), ILB Josey Jewell (IA), OLB/NICKEL Jabrill Peppers (M), CB Jalen Myrick (MN), S Nate Gerry (NE)

SPECIAL TEAMS: KR Jabrill Peppers (M), PR Jabrill Peppers (M)

Gerry is the last player on PFF’s top 101 list to go off the board; he ranks 90th in the 2016 edition after landing at #44 heading into 2015.

Gerry took a step back from an outstanding 2014 campaign, but he still enters 2016 as one of the nation’s best safeties. His play-making ways led to the second-best coverage grade in the nation in 2014, though he needs to cut down on his 25 missed tackles over the last two years. Still, Gerry has good instincts and he’ll anchor the back end for Nebraska this season.

In a year when someone is probably getting stuck drafting Montae Nicholson, I’ll take a safety with a two-year track record of excellent coverage. CBS ranks him as the #9 senior strong safety prospect, highest in the conference; the next Big Ten player on that list is Illinois’ Taylor Barton at #14. Gerry is poised for a bounce-back year; Nebraska lost a lot in the secondary heading into 2015, but this year they return both starting cornerbacks in addition to Gerry.

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ADAM: Round 13, Pick 2: Ben Braden, OG, Michigan

[Bryan Fuller]

Offense: Pat Elflein (OC-OSU), Dan Feeney (OG-Indiana), Amara Darboh (WR-Michigan), Justin Jackson (RB-Northwestern), Brandon Reilly (WR-Nebraska), John O'Korn (QB-Michigan), Ben Braden (OG-Michigan)

Defense: Jourdan Lewis (CB-Michigan), Dawuane Smoot (DE-Illinois), Taco Charlton (DE-Michigan), Maurice Hurst (DT-Michigan), Vince Biegel (OLB-Wisconsin), Matthew Harris (CB-Northwestern)

I bet you're trying to think of a Braden play that stands out in your mind and coming up empty right now. That's fine, since remembering a play where an offensive lineman stands out is probably because they just ole'd someone. In fact, your inability to find a play that stands out is pretty much why I took him. Braden was consistently good in his first year with Tim Drevno as his OL coach; the line should make a big jump in year two, and having no negative UFR grades gives a nice baseline from which Braden can improve.

 
You can see that his year-to-year improvement was impressive; for all his potential Kyle Kalis was still picking up net negative grades last year where Braden was not. He's a fifth-year senior with size (6'6, 322), a great OL coach, and a 2015 All-Big Ten honorable mention under his belt.

I don't see any guards left on the board playing in as favorable a situation; there are some guys who will justifiably be selected but they aren't starting from the same place and they don't have Michigan's coaching staff. With him on my roster my interior line is solidified, and though he might not be the best puller in the conference he'll fare just fine in pass protection and is a pretty dang good run blocker. I'll take all that from a 13th-round pick.

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SETH: Round 13, Pick 3: Riley Bullough

[USA Today via 247]

Offense: QB J.T. Barrett (OSU), RB Corey Clement (Wis), WR Chris Godwin (PSU), WR Simmie Cobbs (IN), OC Mason Cole (M), OC Sean Welsh (Iowa), OG Billy Price (OSU)

Defense: NT Bryan Mone (M), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), LB Nyeem Wartman-White (PSU), LB Riley Bullough (MSU), FS Godwin Igwebuike, CB Desmond King (Iowa)

Specialists: KR/PR King

Another goddamn Bullough. Q.E.D.

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Brian: I get one set of back to back before I have to take Scheelhaase.

Seth: (†_†)

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BRIAN: Round 13, Pick 4: Brian Allen, C, MSU
Round 14, Pick 1: Jermaine Carter Jr, LB, Maryland

[Left: Upchurch. Right: Patrick Barron]

Offense: RB LJ Scott(MSU), TE Jake Butt(M), WR Jordan Westerkamp (NEB), OL Cole Croston(IA), OL Brian Allen(MSU)

Defense: DE Tyquan Lewis(OSU), DE Rashan Gary(M), DT Chris Wormley(M), DT Malik McDowell(MSU). LB Raekwon McMillan (OSU), LB Anthony Walker (NW), LB Jermaine Carter(MD), CB Gareon Conley(OSU), CB Will Likely (MD).

[Ed—This pick was made before MSU released a depth chart putting Kody Kieler at center]

It's crazy that 2 teams have already filled their interior OL slots but even so I probably can't wait to grab Yet Another Michigan State Guy With The Same Last Name As Some Other Michigan State Guy. I do not put it past Seth to go full Heiko on the OL this year and draft five centers, one of whom will play TE. I could just go "QED" like Seth but there's some meat on these bones I should mention.

Allen was second-team All Big Ten a year ago as a guard and moves to center this year, like his brother before him. For the second straight year he was the first guy drafted as MSU split its squad for the spring game (); PFF had him significantly positive eight games into the season. CBS's admittedly speculative 2018 draft rankings have him the top guard available.  MSU's OL had a bunch of problems last year and will have more this year, but Allen will be the unit's Graham Glasgow.

Carter didn't have a lot of help last year but produced in a major way all the same, with 102 tackles and 14 TFLs as a sophomore. He was immense in Maryland's biggest games, notching a +6.4 from PFF against Michigan and a +2.5 against OSU. PFF named him a second team all Big Ten player and the third best returning ILB in the country.

Maryland fans are unanimous that he's their second best defensive player behind Likely. I'll slap him in at WLB and move Walker to the SAM/star/space LB spot he was born to play.

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Seth: In fairness, you can build a solid OL with this year's centers.

Brian: Actually... yeah. Cole back to LT and fill in the blanks. But you've been foiled, you have.

Seth: Non-center Dan Voltz is still on the board, as is the guy who pushed him there, but I'm probably going in another direction.

Brian: I know these Wisconsin gentlemen as Reason To Ignore Interior OL Early 1 and Reason To Ignore Interior OL Early 2

Smoothitron:

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SETH: Round 14, Pick 2: Greg Mabin, cornerback, Iowa

Offense: QB J.T. Barrett (OSU), RB Corey Clement (Wis), WR Chris Godwin (PSU), WR Simmie Cobbs (IN), OL Mason Cole (M), OC Sean Welsh (Iowa), OG Billy Price (OSU)

Defense: NT Bryan Mone (M), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), LB Nyeem Wartman-White (PSU), LB Riley Bullough (MSU), FS Godwin Igwebuike, CBs Desmond King and Greg Mabin (IA)

Specialists: KR/PR King

When scouting Thorpe winner Desmond King (#14) I caught myself watching #13 until I realized Iowa just plays them left and right regardless of hash or dangerman. Desmond King may have hogged the interception tree, but his 6'2/200 three-year starter opposite wracked up 8 PBUs and 54 tackles in the same Cov2/Quarters/cornerback-stressing system.

There weren't many passing threats in the Big West so we're back to the same games I used for King: the B1G Championship, Nebraska (because Westercamp) and Illinois (because Geronimo Allison), so I re-watched them. I thought Mabin was excellent versus Cook-Burbridge-Shelton, and against Nebraska I guessed he did well because Armstrong kept rolling out to Mabin's side, waiting days, and finding nothing. As for Geronimo, two medium-size chunks of his 148 yards were on Mabin, but Mabin won one back by baiting a critical interception. My biggest takeaways from this Iowa defense binge watch were 1) Jourdan Lewis is better than Desmond King, and 2) They're really not going to miss Lomax so much (the other safety is now on my board).

Then I turned on the Rose Bowl, and...well Mabin got blocked into Lomax on the big throw to McCaffrey to start the game and got fooled on the fake fumble TD. But nobody in the Big Ten came away from that one pretty (unless he built Stanford). When not getting trick played when already down 28-0 the corners were probably the most defensible bits in that garbage pile.

I've seen enough to like his game better than any available set starter. After him it's flipping a coin on Stribling/Clark, throwing a dart at the free-for-all opposite Gareon Conley, or fishing the treacherous seas of Spartan dreams.

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ADAM: Round 14, Pick 3: Hardy Nickerson Jr., LB, Illinois

Offense: Pat Elflein (OC-OSU), Dan Feeney (OG-Indiana), Amara Darboh (WR-Michigan), Justin Jackson (RB-Northwestern), Brandon Reilly (WR-Nebraska), John O'Korn (QB-Michigan), Ben Braden (OG-Michigan)

Defense: Jourdan Lewis (CB-Michigan), Dawuane Smoot (DE-Illinois), Taco Charlton (DE-Michigan), Maurice Hurst (DT-Michigan), Vince Biegel (OLB-Wisconsin), Matthew Harris (CB-Northwestern), Hardy Nickerson Jr. (LB-Illinois)

I'm as surprised as you are to have more than one Illinois player on my roster (or more than zero, really) but the best MIKE left on the board will be suiting up for the Illini this fall. Nickerson Jr. spent his first three seasons at Cal, where his 246 career tackles left him just 12 shy of their all-time top 10. He's starting to pick up some draft buzz, with CBSSports ranking him fourth on their top ILB prospects list and walterfootball.comranking him 14th on their list that includes potential early entrants.

That's all fine, but what really impressed me was his versatility on film. He's not the heaviest hitter but he takes good angles to the ball and is fast and agile enough to adjust and recover mid-play when he takes a half step the wrong direction. He's also excellent in coverage, which you'd expect from a guy who's going to step in and start in the middle of a Lovie Smith/Hardy Nickerson Sr. Tampa 2 defense. He finished with double-digit tackles against both Oregon and Stanford, and what I saw was a guy who should do well against the spread or a more traditional power running game while also having no problem carrying a back downfield or covering the flat.

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ACE: Round 14, Pick 4: Nick Gates, left tackle, Nebraska

OFFENSE: QB CJ Beathard (IA), RB Saquon Barkley (PSU), WR Jehu Chesson (M), SLOT Curtis Samuel (OSU), TE George Kittle (IA), OT Nick Gates (NE), OG Jacob Bailey (IU), WEAPON Jabrill Peppers (M)

DEFENSE: NT Ryan Glasgow (M), DT Jake Replogle (PU), DE Sam Hubbard (OSU), ILB Josey Jewell (IA), OLB/NICKEL Jabrill Peppers (M), CB Jalen Myrick (MN), S Nate Gerry (NE)

SPECIAL TEAMS: KR Jabrill Peppers (M), PR Jabrill Peppers (M)

While a couple people in this draft (looking at, uh, Not Brian) are tripping over themselves to draft every passable interior lineman in the conference, I’ll grab a promising third-year tackle. Gates earned second-team All-B1G honors from PFF in his first year as a starter despite missing three games with an ankle injury.

Gates was good enough as a redshirt freshman that when he returned from that injury, the coaches shifted a 6’8”, 320-pound senior who’d never played guard to the interior so Gates could remain at right tackle. Nebraska posted strong line stats last year, especially in pass protection; even with a scrambler at QB, they had the 14th-best adjusted sack rate in the country.

With fourth-rounder Alex Lewis gone, Gates will take over at left tackle this year. Unlike most of the tackles left on the board, Gates has proven he can play while still being far away from his ceiling. His potential to take a third-year leap—and his ability to play on the blind side—puts him above the likes of Erik Magnuson for me.

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Ace: Sorry, Adam, but that Braden pick was mind-boggling.

Seth: Dammit you found Gates. I already had that one written up. Bet it's the second year in a row you took the best left tackle after Brian took a left tackle.

Ace: Meanwhile there are still several quality LBs left on the board. This has been a weird draft.

Adam: I was weighing guys I like better than Braden against positions where there are lots of spots to fill. I figured there wouldn't be a run on MIKEs by guys I thought already had them and I guessed wrong. So, so wrong.

I still like Braden and think he's going to be a lot better than people think, but I would've picked him a few rounds lower if I could do it over.

/giphy echo chamber.

Seth: There will be an LB who may not start for Wisconsin this year we would have been all over any other year. Averaged 10 tackles a game for the second half of the season, missed two halves for targeting, then turned 1st and 10 on the 50 late in a close game into 4th and 30 all by himself.

But not starting=death sentence.

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Where things stand:

(click makes big)

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NEXT TIME ON DRAFTAGEDDON: Forced to take a quarterback, Brian runs around screaming then tosses a pick in the air while falling backwards. And sentences that start "most Penn State fans think…" are immediately retracted.