Obligatory

NOTE: Since most of us can’t remember who’s in what division without looking it up, the Coastal teams are Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Pitt, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. The Atlantic teams are Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina State, Syracuse, and Wake Forest. No, it doesn’t make sense to me either.

Like the Big Ten, the ACC suffers from imbalanced divisions (though to a lesser extent) – the winner of the annual Atlantic Division matchup between Clemson and Florida State has gone on to win the conference five years running, and there’s a very good chance that it will remain the case this season. The ACC’s nonsensical division split was designed to keep Florida State and Miami – the two clear powers back then – in separate divisions with the possibility of a championship game rematch (which still hasn’t happened). Miami’s struggles since joining the ACC, as well as Clemson’s rise under Dabo Swinney, has made for a “Big Two, Little Twelve” situation, with both power programs sharing a division. The league’s well-documented parity – or mediocrity, depending on your point of view – behind those two has left an amorphous tier of programs fighting for the scraps beneath FSU and Clemson. For the other teams in the Atlantic, there’s an enormous mountain to climb and cracking the top two would be a monumental achievement, based on the presumed staying power of the Noles and the Tigers.

The Coastal is a different story. Though Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have most often represented the division in the ACC Championship Game, UNC and Duke have each won the division in the past three years. With GT and VT in states of uncertainty (the former went 3-9 last season, the latter is replacing a legendary coach who saw the program atrophy in the last few years of his reign), the Coastal is quite unpredictable. Miami and Virginia Tech, ostensibly the programs with the most inherent advantages in the division, are breaking in new coaches (Mark Richt and Justin Fuente). Like their in-state rival, Virginia also made a good hire (Bronco Mendenhall). ACC newcomer Pitt was a pleasant surprise under first-year head coach Pat Narduzzi* and with Penn State’s malaise, they could be primed to build a formidable program there. Duke and Carolina are actually seeing some gridiron success these days. While the Atlantic will deservedly receive more attention from the college football world at-large, the Coastal has a lot of intriguing subplots for the more diehard college football junkie.

*please don’t go to State when Dantonio retires

[Team previews after the JUMP]

QB Deshone Kizer stepped in nicely for injured starter Malik Zaire

Notre Dame

While Notre Dame isn’t technically a part of either division in the ACC, the agreement that they have with the conference essentially strips them of their true “independent” status. Since the powers that be in college football are content to let ND glom on to the conference and reap the benefits of being in the Power 5 without actually having to compete for the ACC title, their quasi-ACC existence suits them for now.

On the field, it looks to be a rebuilding season, relatively speaking, for the Irish. They have two very capable quarterbacks: Malik Zaire went down with a broken ankle early last year after beating Everett Golson for the starting job and Deshone Kizer – more of a pocket passer in contrast to Zaire – eventually became comfortable in the job and developed into a real asset as the season progressed. Whichever QB wins the starting spot will have beaten out one of the best backups in college football, so the Irish shouldn’t be concerned about the most important position on the field. Unfortunately for ND, the quarterback will be surrounded by quite a few inexperienced players on offense. Two very good receivers – Will Fuller and Chris Brown – depart. The offensive line loses Ronnie Stanley (a first round tackle) as well as Nick Martin and Steve Elmer, two stable interior linemen. Brian Kelly’s offense has typically been excellent at each of his stops as a head coach and this season should be more of the same, but it will require some new faces to step up in bigger roles.

Defensively, there are also significant losses, starting with Jaylon Smith, a terror of a 3-4 OLB who unfortunately suffered a brutal injury in the bowl game that may throw his pro career into doubt. In addition to Smith, Notre Dame loses Sheldon Day and Romeo Okwara, perhaps their two best defensive linemen (who combined for 29(!) tackles for a loss), Joe Schmidt, a solid if unspectacular OLB who played opposite Smith, and three of four starters in the secondary. Predictably, the replacements are mostly former high-profile recruits, and Notre Dame did suffer from a ton of injuries (on both sides of the ball, really) so there’s some level of experience with a lot of the new starters. For example, safety Drue Tranquill – who injured ACL while celebrating last year – should solidify the back four. Like last season, it’s a pretty safe assumption that Notre Dame’s offense will be better than its defense.

Last season, ND lost just two regular season games by two points apiece, each on the road against two teams that made it to New Year’s Six bowls (Clemson and Stanford). Despite the injuries, they managed to keep their heads above water and turned in a nice season – but it might be tougher in 2016. The schedule, which only has three true road games (and three neutral site contests, for some reason) isn’t too tough: trips to Texas and USC bookend the season and home games against Michigan State and Stanford might be the Irish’s toughest tests. They don’t play Florida State or Clemson. Kelly has built ND into a formidable program and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get to nine or ten wins, but playoff contention might be too much to ask for this season.

North Carolina RB Elijah Hood is one of many awesome juniors in the ACC

North Carolina

In his first three seasons in Chapel Hill, Larry Fedora compiled a 21-17 record and had the high-flying, wide-open offenses he was known for at Southern Miss; the defense was mostly a disaster and he brought in Gene Chizik as defensive coordinator to shore up things on that side of the ball before last season. While they didn’t exactly have a good defense, it was much improved, and that – paired with an explosive offense led by senior quarterback Marquise Williams – was enough to get the Heels to eleven wins. They lost the season-opener at a neutral site to what turned out to be a bad South Carolina team before winning eleven games in a row – a narrow loss to Clemson in the ACC Championship and a shootout loss against Baylor in the bowl game didn’t take the shine away from what was a very good season in Chapel Hill. Caveats about opponent strength were warranted, and with Florida State rotating onto the schedule, it’s not likely that UNC will go 8-0 in ACC play again.

Still, there’s good reason to consider UNC the front-runner in the Coastal, even though they have to replace Williams. New QB Mitch Trubisky has the benefit of a formidable running game (and he’s pretty mobile himself): Elijah Hood had 1,463 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground and he’ll run behind an experienced offensive line that returns four starters. While receiver Quinshad Davis is out of eligibility, dynamic slot receiver and kick / punt returner Ryan Switzer is an electric target and Mack Hollins and Bug Howard add proven talent to the receiving corps. Trubisky has long been slated as Williams’s heir apparent and even though he’s unlikely to replicate Williams’s excellent season, solid QB play could go a long way with the supporting cast and coaching ability UNC has.

In quite a few games last season, Carolina was able to simply outgun their opponents – conceding a number in the thirties isn’t a problem when you’re scoring in the sixties. A bend-don’t-break defense was capable of preventing big plays through the air and most of the secondary returns. However, it might be that the pass defense was pretty decent only because opponents were content to run all over UNC: the bowl game against Baylor was a great example as the Bears, who saw several quarterbacks go down to injury near the end of the regular season, ran for an unfathomable 645 yards (at 7.7 yards per carry) and 7 touchdowns in a win. If Carolina shores up its run defense – and honestly, it can’t get much worse than last year – and Chizik continues to make modest, though significant, improvements on that side of the ball, UNC should be right in the thick of the Coastal race yet again. The schedule this season does get a little bit tougher: they open the season with a neutral site game against Georgia and travel to Florida State.

RB James Conner is back on the field and cancer-free after a year on the sidelines

Pitt

With the hire of Pat Narduzzi, Pitt managed to wrest away one of the most sought-after coordinator coaching prospects; in year one, the Panthers went 8-5 with a pretty young team and showed tangible signs of improvement after wallowing in mediocrity in the post-Wannstedt era. A few other Coastal programs have recently made good hires (or hires that we think will be good, at least), but Narduzzi gets a one year head start over Richt, Fuente, and Mendenhall. Pitt was typically very competitive in 2015: they lost by three on the road to a 12-win Iowa team; they managed to total five wins by one score or less; they came back from a huge deficit to just barely lose against North Carolina in a game that would have won the Coastal. They weren’t especially great on offense or defense, but on the aggregate, they played well and outperformed their ability, record-wise.

This year, Pitt’s poised to be Carolina’s primary competition in the Coastal, mostly due to the amount of experience returning. They’re breaking in a new offensive coordinator (Matt Canada, formerly of Wisconsin) after the old one joined Kirby Smart’s staff at Georgia, but Canada has plenty to work with in his first season in Pittsburgh. Quarterback Nate Peterman returns, as do running backs Qadree Ollison (a huge back who rushed for 1,121 yards and 11 touchdowns as a freshman last year) and James Conner – Conner hurt his MCL in the season opener and was later diagnosed with cancer. He’s back and in good health; Conner was one of the most underrated running backs in the country before his injury – in 2014, he ran for 1,765 yards and 26 touchdowns. Since most of the offensive line returns – and star wideout Tyler Boyd (Peterman’s first, second, and third option), who defected early to the NFL, does not – expect Pitt to pound the ball, which should suit Canada and Narduzzi just fine.

Pitt was perhaps short of what you’d expect from a Pat Narduzzi defense, but a ton of contributors are back and it’s reasonable to expect a jump from that unit. Defensive end Ejuan Price – who totaled 11.5 sacks last season – is the star on that side of the ball and can consistently pressure the quarterback by himself; unsurprisingly for Michigan fans, Narduzzi’s middle linebacker was second on the team in sacks – I’m willing to assume that he still enjoys double A-gap blitzing and aggressive cover four pass coverage. The Panthers only lose a contributor or two from each level of the defense, so depending on your count, they return eight or nine starters. With an early game on the road against Carolina, the frontrunner for the Coastal could be determined early, though I’m most excited for the September 10 matchup between Pitt and Penn State, longtime rivals who haven’t met on the field in a while.

Longtime Beamer DC Bud Foster is staying with new head coach Justin Fuente

Virginia Tech

Moving on after losing the longest-tenured head coach in college football – a guy who’s synonymous with the program – is usually difficult, but Virginia Tech quickly moved on one of the coaching carousel’s hottest names, hiring Justin Fuente away from Memphis. Fuente had inherited one of the most moribund programs in the country and within a few years, had built it into one of the best Group of 5 teams, led by prolific quarterback and first round draft pick Paxton Lynch. Fuente’s expertise is on the offensive side of the ball; over the past few years in Blacksburg, the offense was often too inept to take advantage of typically good defenses. That should change somewhat this year – while Fuente didn’t turn the Memphis offense around overnight, he has some promising pieces and more general talent at Virginia Tech. Wide receiver Isaiah Ford is the headliner, as he managed 1,164 yards and 11 touchdowns receiving while in a Scot Loeffler offense. Fuente brought in JUCO QB Jerod Evans, who will compete with part-time starter Brendan Motley – both are mobile quarterbacks. Tech also boasts one of the most experienced lines in the country.

Interestingly, Fuente was able to retain Bud Foster, the defensive coordinator who helped Beamer build the best team in Virginia Tech history. Foster had always been named a head coaching candidate – for other schools and as Beamer’s eventual replacement – and never took a lateral move to be the coordinator at another school; Tech opted for an up-and-comer with head coaching experience and Foster decided that he was comfortable in Blacksburg with his current role, even with a new boss. While the Hokie defense wasn’t quite up to its usual standard last season – look no further than the 55-52 bowl win over Tulsa, which saw over a hundred total points in regulation – inexperience, particularly in the secondary, was a big reason why. Foster defenses are typically quite good, and it would be a surprise not to see some improvement this year. Depending on how quickly Fuente can resurrect the offense, VT could contend in the Coastal as early as 2016.

Yes, this is really happening

Miami

Al Golden entered the season with as much hot seat talk as anyone; after starting the season with some narrow, uninspiring wins and two close losses, the Canes hosted Clemson in a game that dropped the axe on Golden – Miami lost 58-0, the worst loss in school history. They made it through the rest of the season with an interim coach and finished 8-5, losing to Washington State in the Sun Bowl. After Georgia fired Mark Richt (a surprise, surely, but perhaps not that unbelievable (though hiring Kirby Smart as his replacement doesn’t seem like a great idea)), Miami found an ideal candidate to replace Golden: Richt played at Miami and though he ultimately topped out at “consistently very good,” that’s far better than anywhere Miami’s been since joining the ACC – amazingly, they still haven’t ever won the Coastal. Drawing Florida State as their yearly cross-division matchup is an anchor on their schedule, but it’s hard to believe that they haven’t broken through at least once. It’s not hard to envision Richt getting them there… eventually.

In his first season back in Coral Gables, Richt has stability at the most important position on the field: quarterback Brad Kaaya will be entering his third season as the starter and will be tasked with creating most of Miami’s offense. Despite the bevy of highly-regarded recruits up and down the roster, the Canes were anemic running the ball last season and though they return pretty much every back and lineman – headlined by RB Joseph Yearby, a physical runner who may be best as a pass-catcher out of the backfield – they were so inept on the ground that significant improvement still might be a year or two away. On defense, new coordinator Manny Diaz (formerly of Mississippi State and Texas, most notably) will bring his signature blitz-heavy style to Miami and needs to work with a front seven that didn’t have that playmaking ability last year. The secondary should be a bright spot. Richt has his work cut out for him, but he’s a more natural fit than Golden was and could very well bring Miami back to prominence in time.

Dual-threat quarterback Thomas Sirk is recovering from an offseason Achilles injury

Duke

It took a while, but David Cutcliffe was able to turn things around at Duke: after finishing last or tied for last in the Coastal in four of his first five seasons in Durham, he’s led the Blue Devils to a combined record of 27-13 over the last three seasons, perhaps the best three-year stretch Duke football has ever had. Last season, they went 8-5 – Duke started out 6-1 before losing on a truly bizarre (and patently unfair) lateral-the-ball-a-bunch-of-times play against Miami. From there, the wheels sort of fell off, as the Blue Devils lost three in a row (mostly in blowout fashion) before rebounding to sneak past Wake Forest in the regular season finale. An exciting bowl win over Indiana provided some good feelings headed into the offseason, but 2016 stacks up to be a rebuilding year in Durham. Star safety Jeremy Cash is gone, as is leading tackler Dwayne Norman and most of the starting defensive line. Quarterback Thomas Sirk was responsible for most of Duke’s offensive production – he was the leading rusher, in addition to manning the helm of Cutcliffe’s pass-heavy attack – and he might not be able to play after suffering an offseason Achilles injury. The schedule isn’t too difficult – though a trip to Notre Dame is a very tough early test – so the Blue Devils should be a bowl team, but it’s unlikely that they’ll be contending for a trip to the ACC Title game come November.

QB Justin Thomas leads Georgia Tech’s triple option attack

Georgia Tech

Through seven seasons, Paul Johnson was wonderful at Georgia Tech, carrying the Yellow Jackets to a 58-35 combined record with four Coastal titles (though no ACC Championships). Tech’s big gamble in hiring Johnson, and thus becoming the only Power 5 team in college football to run the Flexbone offense, paid off, and GT punched above its weight class for the better part of a decade. In 2014, they won eleven games, their most under Johnson – and entered 2015 with top ten / top fifteen hype. After destroying two cupcakes in their first two games, the Jackets finished the rest of the season with a 1-9 record and eventually finished last in the division. Interestingly, their only win was a shocking upset over Florida State – the best team on their schedule. 3-9 was by far the worst season under Johnson, and while a regression to the mean seems inevitable, last year’s implosion was a troubling blip. Fortunately for Tech, dynamic QB Justin Thomas is surrounded by experience – like he was in 2014 – and the offensive line, so critical in such a run-heavy offense, should be much better. While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see GT make it back to a bowl game or perhaps finish near the top of the division, they have a long way to go to come back from 3-9.

Taquan “Smoke” Mizzell is a playmaker out of the backfield

Virginia

Like some of its division rivals, Virginia made a very good coaching hire this past offseason – unlike VT and Miami, UVA’s new coach came out of the blue. From the outside, it looks as if Bronco Mendenhall departing BYU – a program he had built into respectable consistency, if not excellence – for Virginia is a step down, but theoretically the Cavaliers could develop into a more solid program in time and they’re actually in a Power Five conference. The departed Mike London didn’t leave the cupboard bare for Mendenhall: scatbacks Taquan Mizzell and Olamide Zaccheaus provide some electricity on offense and former 5* safety Quin Blanding has fulfilled his potential so far in Charlottesville. Still, the Hoos went 4-8 last season and have a ways to go before climbing out of the division cellar. Mendenhall may turn things around in time, but this isn’t a one year rebuild.