it was one or the other this weekend for Michigan's 18-to-20-year-old hockey prospects
An eight-man recruiting class will enter Michigan this fall ready to patch some of the holes left by this spring's exodus. Though there are no players the caliber of Kyle Connor or Dylan Larkin in this class, it seemed almost certain that five of the eight would be drafted in this past weekend's NHL Draft.
Almost, but not quite. Only three of Michigan's eight incoming freshmen (and an addition 2017 prospect) were selected in the draft despite projections that had the two who went undrafted, Griffin Luce and James Sanchez, safely above the bottom of the draft.
Scouting reports for hockey prospects are typically short and published irregularly, so I thought I'd use the boom in available scouting materials to look at what you can expect from Michigan's newest draftees' games, as well as where they're likely to fit when they suit up for their first game in a Michigan sweater this fall.
Will Lockwood, RW
Third round, 64th overall- Vancouver Canucks
[Rena Laverty/USNTDP]
Scouting:
Lockwood's 13-20-33 scoring line in 59 games with the USNTDP is fine, I suppose. He's not going to be a revelation, but he should put up a fair but not-at-all sterling stat line in his first season. SB Nation College Hockey's Chris Dilks hints at that toward the end of his scouting report while also making him sound a lot like a third- or fourth-liner:
What I Like:
-High Motor
Lockwood plays with a lot of energy and effort. He's a very consistent player that always gives 100%. He creates opportunities for himself by taking away time and space from the opposition and forcing mistakes
-Good Skater
Speed is Lockwood's best asset. He's got light feet which gives him a very quick first step and above average straight-line speed. He doesn't always use that speed to his greatest advantage, but it could be a pro-level tool if he learns how to use it better.
-Finishing Ability
Lockwood wasn't a huge scorer for the NTDP this year, but when he got opportunities, he showed a nice ability to finish off plays. He'll have to show he can do that more consistently, but matched with the right linemate that can set him up, he could be a much bigger scorer.
Dilks goes on to mention Lockwood's inability to create with his hands and win puck battles; you can work on winning puck battles, but relying completely on speed is a bit of a red flag in terms of NCAA point production.
Steve Kournianos of The Draft Analyst agrees with Dilks' assessment while also noting that Lockwood played against good competition and shouldn't have much of a learning curve at Michigan:
Lockwood is near the top of a decent list of draft-eligible sandpaper forwards thanks to excellent straight-line speed and a fearless mindset when engaging opposing skaters. He gets most of his points from a crash-and-bang style that would normally compliment line mates of the finesse variety. Lockwood, however, played most of the season with similar players, yet he was easily one of the NTDP’s most reliable and consistent in that regard.
Hockey Prospectus' Ryan Wagman sees something in Lockwood's physical game that other scouts did not and has a generally less optimistic take:
He is a good penalty killer with a decent wall game. Although well undersized, he is generally a pretty physical player and a frequent hitter. Committed to the University of Michigan, he has low upside, but plays a coach friendly game.
Elite Prospects does a nice job collecting player rankings from around the internet, and you can see Lockwood's all over the place. A few sites had him in the 70s, but others had him as low as #197. Most sites that don't rank expected him to be a mid-fourth round pick; no matter which site's rankings you prefer, he was taken higher than expected.
At Michigan:
There's going to be plenty of room to move up with Michigan losing five of their top six forwards. I'd keep the Warren-Marody-Calderone line intact and make that the top line; Lockwood could play on the second line with Alex Kile on the opposite wing and centered by…uh, someone's going to have to learn how to play center in a hurry. Lockwood plays a similar style to Warren and could hit 15-20 points as a freshman.
[After THE JUMP: two more commits get picked]
Jack LaFontaine, G
Third round, 75th overall- Carolina Hurricanes
[Anthony Wahl/GazetteXtra]
Scouting:
There's not as much out there on LaFontaine, which isn't surprising considering he played last season in the NAHL. The Draft Analysts' Steve Kournianos penned the most thorough report available, and it's awfully enticing:
Mature and personable big-bodied goalie fromt he NAHL who will don the blue and gold of Michigan in the fall. Lafontaine is an active goalie who reads plays well, especially cross-ice passes. He’s quite athletic for a big kid (6’3, 200 pounds) and plays an aggressive style. The fact that he has an active stick and exceptional puck-handling abilities almost makes a third defenseman, but his timing on dump-ins is somewhat inconsistent. Still, his posititioning is solid, and his reset ability coupled with a quick glove make him hard to beat when he allows rebound attempts. Lafontaine has a great attitude towards both his craft and the game of hockey, and will likely develop faster than most of his peers.
Chris Dilks of SB Nation College Hockey took in four of LaFontaine's games at the NAHL Showcase and differed in his take on LaFontaine's athleticism but otherwise corroborated Kournianos' report:
He's not super athletic, but is a very technically sound goalie. He showed a nice glove hand but otherwise isn't likely to make a lot of great saves, but he'll make all the saves that he should. Also to his advantage is that he is a very good puckhandler and isn't afraid to leave his net to make a play.
NHL Central Scouting had LaFontaine ranked as the #13 overall North American goaltender, while Elite Prospects has only one ranking available: #155 overall per Future Considerations. Draft Site projected him going in the seventh round (#182 overall) and the previously linked Draft Analysts mock had him going #157 overall. LaFontaine was a huge reach in the technical sense of the term, but I don't think Carolina fans will end up disappointed; Michigan's bringing him in a year earlier than expected..
At Michigan:
LaFontaine will battle Zach Nagelvoort for the starting job in camp. Nagelvoort may have a bit of an upper hand considering he comes equipped with lots of starting experience, though he has been unable to hold the job for a full season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat of what we saw from Racine and Nagelvoort the last few seasons with Nagelvoort and LaFontaine trading the starting position back and forth.
Nick Pastujov, LW
Seventh round, 193rd overall- New York Islanders
[Tom Sorensen/USNTDP]
Scouting:
Jeff Cox of SB Nation College Hockey took in an early-season contest between the NTDP and Boston University and walked away with an unenthusiastic opinion of Pastujov:
He doesn't look out of place, but there just isn't that much that sets him apart from other players. He's good, but others have caught up to his skill set compared to when he was picked for the NTDP.
SB Nation College Hockey's Chris Dilks didn't author a scouting report on Pastujov's play in 2015-16, but he liked what he saw enough to rank him #105 of his top-140 draft-eligible players.
Draft Site's Bill Placzek makes Pastujov sound more like a fourth-line skater than a top-line talent, a decidedly different take than when he committed but true to his 13-8-21 stat line in 60 NTDP games last season:
…solidly built six footer who is still developing, and has no weaknesses that will be impediments in the growth process. A lunch pail centre who might project to the wing, he finishes his checks and plays hard in both ends. Scored two important goals at the U-18 Five Nations in February.
Pastujov's draft projections were all over the place, from #96 overall per ISS Hockey and just outside ESPN's Corey Pronman's top-100 prospects to #189 overall according to hockeyprospect.com. Draft Site had him projected as a fourth-round pick, whereas Dilks had him going in the seventh round. At #193 he went lower than projected, but not by much—at least, according to about half of the sites that rank players.
At Michigan:
Should slot in as a bottom-six winger unless the coaches like him as a center, in which case he could center anything from the second line on down. I haven't seen enough of him to make an informed projection about his defensive game, but I do feel that he sees the ice well offensively; his assist against Michigan (00:20 mark) in last year's exhibition was a microcosm of that, a result of reading two defenders and waiting for them to commit before passing.
Undrafted:
James Sanchez is another NTDP product, though his game is in stark contrast to Lockwood and Pastujov's. Sanchez is a big guy and great puck-handler who doesn't skate well, instead making up for it as often as he can with his dynamic offensive skill set (though that rarely works according to Chris Dilks). Dilks projected Sanchez going in the last three rounds of the draft, and Elite Prospects had three sites ranking him in the mid-to-late 100s overall.
Griffin Luce was supposed to be a third- or fourth-round pick and somehow slipped out of the draft. He's got good size for a defenseman at 6'3 and 214 pounds, and he's been extensively scouted thanks to playing for the USNTDP. There were a few outlets that had him ranked toward the bottom of the draft—Draft Site's mock draft had him going in the seventh, and he was ranked #173 by hockeyprospect.com and #210 by Future Considerations.
Most relevant to your interest, however, is what he brings to Michigan. Chris Dilks said there aren't many players he's seen play more and, for better and worse, had less of an opinion about; his scouting report paints a portrait of a guy I think will eventually be a top-pair collegiate defenseman. Dilks notes that Luce does a lot of subtle things well in his hitting and defensive positioning, which is what you want from one of the top two defensemen on a team. He's not going to be an offensive force like Zach Werenski, but after the last few seasons it'll be nice to have a guy who's known for bumping opponents out of prime scoring space.
Kenny Johnson, younger brother of Jack, also went undrafted; he's expected to suit up for Michigan in 2017. Chris Dilks penned a scouting report that will probably make you think of a less offensively gifted Michael Downing when you read it. It's not too surprising to see him go undrafted since he's the kind of player who would have been taken because he's a big dude who can move but with a lot of development needed in terms of positional skill set and hockey IQ.