[Ed-S: We asked SBW to cover one of the best teams in Michigan sports history. Previously: Postseason primer]
All photos from Bryan Fuller
Regional Review
The Ann Arbor regional featured one of the more noteworthy upsets of the opening weekend of the NCAA softball tournament. Fortunately for Michigan, it didn’t happen to us. The Maize & Blue marched through the regional with relative ease, not quite hitting on all cylinders, but never seriously threatened either. Before looking ahead to the upcoming super-regional showdown with the Missouri Tigers, let’s take a quick look back at how Michigan became one of 16 teams in the nation lucky enough to go to practice this week.
Valparaiso
The Wolverines started the weekend off against a Valparaiso team still trying to figure out just how they found their way into the tournament in the first place. With a record well below .500, the Horizon League tournament champions were one of the strangest sights in regional play in years. Michigan didn’t wait long to get on the board, with senior super-star Sierra Romero lining what’s known in Ann Arbor as a “Rom-Bomb” over the wall in the first inning. In addition to giving Michigan an early lead, the solo shot gave Romero her 300th career RBI. The Wolverines added a couple more in the 2nd, but were not able to fully solve Valpo’s pitching until the 5th inning, when all Hell broke loose. 5 singles earned Michigan 3 runs and brought about a pitching change. The change didn’t help, as the relief pitcher walked the next three batters on only 14 pitches to drive in the game-ending runs. Megan Betsa was majestic in the circle, ceding just one hit and one walk while piling up 9 Ks in the 8-0 run-rule walkover.
Miami (NTM)
On Saturday, Michigan was expecting a tougher challenge, and they got one from an unexpected source. Instead of the presumptive challenger Notre Dame, the Maize & Blue had to square off against Miami (NTM), who had upset the Irish with a controversial 3-2 win on Friday. Betsa was again phenomenal, but the story of the early part of the game was Redhawks hurler Amber Logemann, who didn’t allow a hit until the 4th inning. In the 4th, though, Michigan showed a tendency familiar to anyone who watched the 2015 NCAA tournament. A good pitcher can get through Michigan’s order once, maybe twice. After that, though, the offense starts to lock in on tendencies & weaknesses, and the runs can come in bunches. 2 runs in the 4th led to 4 more in the 6th, and Michigan finally had the breathing room they wanted. Hutch took advantage of the extra cushion, resting ace Megan Betsa for the rest of the game. After a wobbly start put runners on 2nd and 3rd with no outs, Driesenga retired the next 6 batters she faced on 6 consecutive ground-outs, securing a 6-0 win.
Notre Dame
To no one’s surprise, the Irish shook off their Friday funk and emerged from the losers’ bracket to face Michigan in the regional final on Sunday. The Irish have seen their season end in Ann Arbor again and again in recent years, and would need to take 2 in a row from #2 Michigan to avoid the same fate in 2016. Sierra Romero sent a message early on that the “luck of the Irish” wasn’t going to apply in Ann Arbor, getting her money’s worth on her 300th career hit, launching a first-inning long ball for the 2nd time on the weekend (the blast was also good for her 299th career run scored, extending her own NCAA record). Another Sierra home run, this one from Sierra Lawrence, put Michigan up 2-0, but an unexpected blast from Irish lead-off hitter Karley Wester trimmed the lead back down to 1. Again it took a few innings for Michigan’s bats to acquire target-lock, but when the Irish gifted Romero 1st base on an error to start the 5th, the Wolverines were determined to take advantage. A bunt single & a walk loaded the bases, and singles from Aidan Falk and Lindsay Montemarano stretched the lead to 6-1. The Irish would get one back in the 6th, but never seriously threatened to catch up to the heavy favorites.
On the weekend, Michigan outscored their opponents a combined 20-2. On a historical note, Sierra Romero joined the extremely exclusive 300/300 club (hits & RBIs), and moved to just one run away from creating an entirely new 300/300/300 club (hits, RBIs, & runs-scored). For a team of Michigan’s caliber, the victories were expected, and celebrations were moderate compared to scenes around the country. The Wolverines will not be satisfied with anything less than a trip to Oklahoma City for the Women’s College World Series, and they know that just one team stands between them and that goal.
[Hit THE JUMP for a Super-regional preview]
Super-Regional Preview
That team is the Missouri Tigers. Rich in postseason experience, no current Missouri player has ever missed the NCAA tournament, and their only recent early exit came in 2014. They have struggled at the super-regional stage, however, missing out on the WCWS every year since 2011, and will come to Ann Arbor hell-bent on changing their run of second-round misfortune. While Michigan beat the tar out of Mizzou in an early-season matchup, winning 13-0 in a 5-inning run-rule decision, no one is expecting to get away that easily a second time. While Missouri has had plenty of ups and downs this year, they ended their regular season strong before absolutely blasting their way through a home regional. Beating BYU once, 9-0 (5 inn.) and Nebraska twice, 8-0 (6 inn.) and 9-0 (5 inn.), Missouri became just the second team under the current format to win three regional games in run-rule shut-outs (2014 Washington was the first). To get a sense of the streaking team making the journey to Ann Arbor this weekend, let’s take a look inside their roster.
Offense
On offense, Emily Crane is the unquestioned headliner, leading the team with an impressive 17 home runs and coming in 2nd with an equally eye-catching .415 batting average. She is far from the only threat, however, with Sami Fagan boasting a sparkling .425 average with 11 long balls to boot. Chloe Rathburn also has a double-digit home-run total (11), while Taylor Gadbois gives Mizzou 3 separate batters hitting over .400 on the season. Indeed, with 7 players hitting over .320 for the season, Missouri is one of the few teams with an offensive line-up that can come close to Michigan’s for sheer lack of weak points. Once the Tigers get on the base paths, that’s when the real trouble starts. Only Southeastern Louisiana (a dismal Southland Conference team) steals more bases per game than the Tigers, and no serious team is close. Aidan Falk gave Michigan fans a big boost of confidence, throwing out one of the deadly Wester sisters in the regional – she’ll be asked to make more than one repeat performance during the super-regional. This is an offense that can and will score runs in multiple ways.
Defense
In the circle, Missouri seems fully committed to ace Paige Lowary at the moment, who went the distance in the regional. It is true that she got shelled when these two teams met earlier in the season, but in her defense, she was still recovering from a taking a rocket come-backer to the eye just days earlier. The injury may help explain the fact that she has retained the ace role, despite an ERA more than a full run higher than that of Danielle Baumgartner, the only other Mizzou pitcher to have seen major action this year. Neither pitcher’s season stats dazzle the eyes, with both carrying middling K/BB ratios, but each appears solid. Lowary has been on fire lately throwing 16 scoreless innings in the regional, fanning 13 and holding opponents to a .127 average on the weekend. Michigan will need to find a way to break her momentum. Lowary gets her share of strike-outs, but is not a master of the art, so Michigan should get some chances to make contact. Making that contact count will be critical. Missouri just might give Michigan a little help in that department, ranking an unremarkable 50th nationally in fielding percentage.
Projection
Missouri comes to Ann Arbor loaded with weapons, and Michigan fans with long memories will recall the disappointment in 2010 when another 15 seed, Tennessee on that occasion, spoiled Michigan’s national title dreams at Alumni Field (the deciding game was the first softball game I ever attended, incidentally). Nevertheless, Michigan is the substantial favorite in the best-of-three series. Where Missouri is good, Michigan is great, scoring an average of around 1.5 more runs per game than the Tigers, giving up just under 1 fewer earned runs, and fielding in the top 5 instead of the top 50.
Missouri is more than capable of playing spoiler, but if Michigan performs at their top level, there is nothing the Tigers will be able to do. With senior legend Sierra Romero playing in her final home series, along with fellow seniors Sierra Lawrence, Kelsey Susalla, and Sara Driesenga, focus should not be an issue. If you’re looking for a difference-maker, though, your answer is probably junior hurler Megan Betsa. Betsa is currently the nation’s strike-out queen, blowing away a staggering 11.3 hitters per 7 innings. If Betsa is off, Michigan could get in trouble, but if the Ks start to add up for the Tigers, it should be just a matter of time before the Wolverines put the required runs on the board.
No matter what, a thrilling weekend is in store for certain. Only a fortunate few will be able to watch history unfold in person, but the rest of us can tune in on ESPN/ESPNU. We’re at the business end of the season, and it’s time to go to work.
