The State Of The Roster: Basketball

Kam Chatman and DJ Wilson could play major roles in 2016-17. [Fuller]

With the news that Aubrey Dawkins will transfer to UCF, Michigan suddenly has an open scholarship spot and a few different options for what to do with it. Before I get into the different scenarios, here's my attempt at a depth chart for next season if the roster remains unchanged:

There's not much depth on the wings at the moment, especially if three-star SG Ibi Watson isn't ready to jump into the rotation right away. While much of the offseason consternation has focused on point guard and center, Michigan's most pressing need is another contributor at SG/SF, and there are a few ways they can make that happen.

John Beilein mentioned in his press availability today that the team will look to use DJ Wilson more on the wing—for Wilson, that would mean backing up Zak Irvin at the four—which would allow Kam Chatman to be Duncan Robinson's primary backup at the three. While that would go a long way towards alleviating M's depth concerns, both Wilson and Chatman would have to show considerable improvement for that to be an ideal solution. Unless one of Austin Davis or Jon Teske is ready to play spot minutes at center, which seems unlikely, Wilson will be needed at the five, too.

Of course, Michigan has that open scholarship, and it'd be a huge surprise (and failure) if they don't use it. I see four scenarios potentially playing out for Michigan, which I'll list in order of likelihood as I see it.

1. Add A Grad Transfer Swingman

This seems to be John Beilein's first choice. Michigan has already reached out to Columbia grad transfer Grant Mullins, a 6'3" combo guard who functioned as a point guard this season but would likely be an off-the-bench shooter; he took just over half his shots from beyond the arc and made them at a 44% clip. Mullins would bolster Michigan's depth at three spots: he'd primarily play shooting guard, alleviate the need for Derrick Walton to slide over when MAAR needs a break—and he could play the point himself if something happens with Walton/Simpson—and give Beilein the flexibility to play some smaller lineups featuring MAAR at the three.

If Mullins doesn't end up here, Michigan would still benefit from going after a guy who could play the two and the three; I'd love to see Beilein go after a strong defender to fill that role.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the scenarios.]

2. Add A Grad Transfer Stretch Four

I brought up Valparaiso's Alec Peters on Twitter when his name emerged—without any specific schools attached—as a potential grad transfer. Of all the players who've been mentioned so far this offseason, Peters is the best fit for this team. At 6'9", 230, he's a natural four, and he has the ability to play center as well. His rebounding numbers were quite good last year. He'd likely be an upgrade on defense—Valpo finished ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Most intriguingly, he's a high-usage, efficient, inside-outside scorer; Peters made 55% of his twos, 44% of his threes, and 85% of his free throws with no shortage of volume in any of those categories.

Unfortunately, there are a couple significant barriers to Peters ending up in Ann Arbor. Valpo coach Bryce Drew just took the open job at Vanderbilt, giving Peters an obvious landing spot with a coach he knows well. The other is that Peters' primary focus at the moment is on jumping to the NBA:

Junior star Alec Peters is set to graduate this summer and his name has been tossed around as a graduate transfer who could move to another program and have immediate eligibility next season. Vanderbilt was certainly be a possibility for Peters.

When reached late Monday night, Peters reiterated that he intended to enter the NBA Draft. Peters first spoke of declaring for the draft prior to the National Invitation Tournament semifinals in New York.

“All I’m working on right now is finalizing the paperwork to get my name in the draft,” Peters said Monday night. “I’m trying to get a few workouts and maybe get invited to the combine.”

Even if Peters tries to go the NBA route, however, there's a good chance he ends up back in college for his senior year because of the new rule allowing college players to declare for the draft, get the NBA's feedback, and return to school if they don't hire an agent. Peters isn't listed on Chad Ford's top 100 for 2016, which includes several players who haven't declared, and DraftExpress doesn't include him in mock drafts for either 2016 or 2017. Peters doesn't fit the profile of an early entry.

Whether or not Peters is an option, Michigan would do quite well if they can add a starter-quality stretch four, which would allow Zak Irvin to slide down to his natural spot at the three and provide a ton of lineup flexibility with Duncan Robinson coming off the bench. This is my ideal scenario, but it's harder to find a stretch four who fits the profile on the grad transfer market than a bench wing.

3. Bring Back Spike

While this option is still on the table, it's not hard to read between the lines here:

Beilein doesn't rule out bringing Spike Albrecht back for next year, but says filling Dawkins' position/role also an important consideration

— Lev Facher (@levfacher) April 6, 2016

Beilein on Xavier Simpson: "He plays the game the right way. He's an elite passer." Says talent plus team need give him chance to play a lot

— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) April 6, 2016

As I've written before, Spike moving on is probably best for both parties. Xavier Simpson could be every bit as good as Spike from the get-go and Beilein won't want to stunt his development by giving him only a minor role as a freshman. Spike, meanwhile, isn't coming back from dual hip surgeries to ride the bench, and he should have plenty of options where a bigger role and a shot at the starting job are available.

If Michigan isn't able to land a grad transfer, however, it'd be better to bring Spike back than leave that scholarship open. At the very least, that would allow Derrick Walton to play a lot off the ball, a role he's done well with in the past; while Michigan would have little choice but to field small lineups quite often, Spike's return would do a nice job of shoring up depth in the backcourt.

4. Add A Late-Rising Recruit

While Beilein has well-documented success with late recruiting fliers, this is the least desirable option. Michigan needs to add a player who could contribute right away, and before you ask, no, Josh Jackson isn't happening.* Beilein's late additions, from Spike and Caris LeVert to MAAR, took a little while to adjust before finding their roles. That would put a ton of pressure on Chatman, Wilson, and Simpson to be significant contributors when the season opens; there wouldn't be much margin for error.

*I will so, so happily eat my words if it does, but it'd be one of the most shocking recruiting coups in a long time.