Preview: Indiana

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Like it was going to be anything but this picture. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE US

John Beilein still won't speak in anything resembling specifics, but we're getting closer to Caris LeVert's return:

"Caris did more (Sunday) than he's done at all," Beilein said. "This was the first time he really tested himself more than he has. So it's day-to-day, and we'll wait and see when he's ready to go. It's ultimately going to be his decision. It could be soon. It could be later."

Beilein mentioned hoping for LeVert to return to the court "this week or next" on Dan Dakich's radio show Monday, so there's a possibility he sees some time tonight—he'll most likely come off the bench in his first game back, whenever that may be. As Beilein has said repeatedly, we'll know LeVert is back when he's participating in warmups, so your guess is as good as mine when it comes to a specific return date.

THE STAKES

Both Michigan and Indiana have benefited from easy opening halves of the Big Ten schedule; at least in part due to the schedule factor, both squads are in the thick of the conference title race. Indiana is tied atop the standings with Iowa; Michigan is a game back. This is the only regular-season meeting between M and IU this season; discussing tiebreaker situations at this stage is very much putting the cart before the horse, but it's at least worth noting.

This game also carries extra importance because Michigan and IU are both on the seven-seed line in the latest Bracket Matrix. There's a decent chance these two teams end up compared head-to-head when it's time for tournament seeding; in that context, it's critical for M to defend their home court.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Indiana, as usual, is a really dangerous shooting team that occasionally gets themselves into trouble with sloppy play. Unlike last year, however, they now have a true post presence in freshman Thomas Bryant, who's shooting 75% on two-pointers while posting rebounding and block rates that rank among the best in the conference. He's helped make Indiana a more balanced offensive team and a much-improved defensive squad—while the schedule plays a significant factor, Indiana currently has the best defensive efficiency in the Big Ten after finishing 13th in 2014-15.

The heart of the team remains point guard Yogi Ferrell, who has a top-ten assist rate in the Big Ten while posting shooting splits of 43/55/77—yes, he's shooting better from outside the arc than inside in conference games by a large margin. Ferrell is joined in the backcourt by Robert Johnson, who's really struggled with his shooting and turnovers in B1G play; when he's on, he's a dangerous outside shooter.

Wing Collin Hartman mostly sticks to the perimeter; he's shooting a hair below 40% from three on the season and should draw Duncan Robinson in a matchup of similar-style players. Human pogo stick Troy Williams rounds out the starting lineup. In addition to being a constant threat to make Sportscenter, Williams is a good defensive rebounder, a major threat to get to the line, and he can even step out and knock down the occasional three. He'll be a tough test for Zak Irvin.

The two primary bench pieces are Nick Zeisloft, who almost exclusively attempts threes and makes 39% of them, and former Wolverine Max Bielfeldt, who plays both the four and the five. Bielfeldt's season-long numbers and conference-only numbers are quite impressive, but a closer look at his KenPom page reveals a significant dropoff against top competition, one that probably isn't shocking to those who watched him at Michigan:

Tier A is top-50 opponents (adjusted for home court); Tier A+B is top-100

Bielfeldt will likely have to defend either Zak Irvin or Mark Donnal when he's on the court; either matchup could be one Michigan chooses to exploit.

THE RESUME

Indiana played a relatively soft nonconference slate that featured wins over #31 Notre Dame and #47 Creighton, a blowout loss at #19 Duke, and upset losses against #91 UNLV and #120 Wake Forest. They've faced the easiest conference slate of any Big Ten team thus far; the Hoosiers split their season series against Wisconsin, which has been their highest-ranked B1G foe. Minnesota pushed them to the brink of an embarrassing home defeat on Saturday but IU held on. They're a tough team to figure out in large part because they've gone relatively untested in conference play.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Conference-only stats.

Four Factors explanation

Again, Indiana's schedule (and, in fairness, Michigan's too) makes it hard to take away too much from the conference-only stats. There's no question, however, that Indiana boasts one of the better shooting teams in the country; they're second nationally in eFG%, third in three-point percentage, and sixth in two-point percentage. They also do a good job crashing the boards—Bryant is especially effective in that regard—and their weak point is turnovers; aside from Zeisloft, who pretty much just catches and shoots, every rotation player has a turnover rate of 16 or higher.

The key to cracking Indiana's defense is finding a way to generate good looks from the outside; the Hoosiers are 19th nationally in 3PA/FGA allowed and their opponents score just 25% of their points on threes—for comparison, Michigan gets 42% of their points from beyond the arc.

THE KEYS

Capitalize in transition. Indiana, as discussed above, has done a great job of preventing opponents from getting good looks from the outside. They've struggled to take care of the ball, however, and Michigan has been very effective at creating wide-open threes in transition, especially for Duncan Robinson. The going won't be so easy in the halfcourt, so M must take advantage of their opportunities when they can run.

Attack mismatches. You can probably tell that I think Michigan should go at Bielfeldt when he's on the floor, whether that's getting the ball to the post when he's at center or running the offense through Zak Irvin when he's at the four. Dylan points out another potential mismatch that Irvin can exploit: Troy Williams is IU's worst pick-and-roll defender, according to Synergy.

Minimize second chances. The Hoosiers are going to get their points. The only starter who isn't a good outside shooter is Bryant, a dominant post scorer, which will make it difficult for Michigan to do anything but match up in man and do their best to limit the damage. In a game like this, it's imperative they keep the Hoosiers from crashing the glass and getting second-chance buckets; Michigan is going to have a very tough time doing the same on the other end, and keeping up with IU's shooters is difficult enough as is. A big all-around game from Derrick Walton, who's been excellent of late, would be really helpful tonight.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 3.

As long as Bryant doesn't go off, Michigan can keep pace with Indiana's shooters, and they can gain a distinct edge by taking care of the rock—something the Hoosiers have struggled to do even in their best games.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. MnB Q&A with Crimson Quarry's Kyle Robbins. KenPom takes a look at Washington, which has embraced allowing its players to foul out of games, and his last paragraph probably won't shock you:

By the way, there has been only one team to avoid a disqualification this season. The last time a Michigan player fouled out was February 17th of last season when the human box-score line-break, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman fouled out against Michigan State. My stance on when to sit players in foul trouble is somewhere between “ignore foul trouble completely” and “always sit guys in the first half that have two fouls”. It’s a very tough problem to study. But it seems to me that if you do subscribe to the latter approach, the fact that none of your players are fouling out is an indication your instincts for loss aversion are too strong.

Death to Autobench.