Joseph Dressler
Despite losing star guard Caris LeVert for a month due to injury, Michigan currently sits in fourth place at 7-2 in the Big Ten; after a so-so non-conference showing, the Wolverines’ strong start to conference play has allayed any concerns about missing the NCAA Tournament. Still, there’s a lack of clarity with this team – even disregarding the uncertainty regarding LeVert’s return and ability to quickly and seamlessly reintegrate into the lineup.
With the notable exception of the win over Maryland, Michigan still is essentially a team that’s beaten the teams they should’ve beaten and lost to the teams they should’ve lost to (two neutral site games, UConn (loss) and Texas (win), were the only two against opponents close to U-M in Ken Pomeroy’s ratings). For the most part, the Wolverines’ wins in the Big Ten have been rather pedestrian: Rutgers and Minnesota were uninspiring home victories over terrible teams, sweeping Penn State isn’t a notable resume event, and the road wins in Big Ten play – over Illinois and Nebraska – were against teams that will surely miss the NCAA’s.
Still, between that win over the Terrapins, the complete lack of bad losses, and the tantalizing potential of adding an All-American level player to a team that’s already playing pretty well, there’s reason to hope that Michigan can round into a formidable squad heading into postseason play. The schedule from here on out in the Big Ten is undeniably harder – starting this week with home contests against Indiana and Michigan State. After Michigan’s solid start to the conference season, there are a few things we can point to as pretty important moving forward:
[After the jump, those things]
THE EVOLUTION OF MARK DONNAL
During non-conference play, it wasn’t difficult to diagnose Michigan with a severe weakness in its revolving door of young big men, but starting with Donnal’s breakthrough against Illinois (26 points on 15 shot equivalents, 9 rebounds, 3 blocks, 2 steals) in the Big Ten opener, Michigan seems to have found an answer for that problem. In the 9 games of league play, these are some of Mark Donnal’s tempo-free stats (no, I’m not joking):
- Offensive rebounding rate of 15.5, second-best in the Big Ten
- Effective FG % of 61.2, true shooting % of 63.3, both good for third-best
- 2-point % of 61.4, fifth-best
- Block rate of 5.5, tenth-best
- Free throw rate of 47.9, tenth-best (FT% is a nice 69% against Big Ten opponents)
- Offensive rating of 120.0, usage rate of 22.7 (only Big Ten players with better usage and efficiency in conference play are Andrew White, Matt Costello, Peter Jok, Diamond Stone, and Denzel Valentine)
Gyarados Mark has been a revelation as the starting center. He fits well in Michigan’s pick-and-roll game as the Wolverines’ best screener and makes himself available on rolls to the basket better than anyone; he stabilizes Michigan’s defense with a great sense of verticality, surprisingly ferocious blocks, and the ability to hedge and recover unlike Michigan’s other options at the five. Donnal has finally been playing with some physicality and toughness and that’s enabling him to show off the mobility and coordination that helped make him a highly-regarded recruit.
It should be noted that he’s thrived against mostly lower-tier Big Ten centers, but after a career in which he had done little, his emergence to being approximately league-average has been huge. Michigan doesn’t ask for much out of their bigs on the offensive end, and Donnal’s improved finishing in the pick-and-roll coupled with the passing ability of Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin has been a newfound offensive staple since the start of Big Ten play. Defensively, Donnal has been adequate at worst – far better than the collective play of the big men on that end of the floor in non-conference play.
Michigan’s other options at the five still haven’t come around and even though Donnal’s kept a decent foul rate, the Wolverines are still forced to play at least 15 minutes per game with a backup in most contests. As evidenced by the shuffling of Moritz Wagner and Ricky Doyle as Donnal’s primary backup and recent moonlighting as a four by D.J. Wilson, it’s clear that the coaches are still looking for an answer there.
via Ace
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Zak and Derrick are leading the way
With Caris sidelined again, Michigan’s remaining pieces of The Big Three That Sorta Never Was were tasked with creating most of the Wolverines’ offense and they’ve stepped up to the task so far. Irvin and Walton are unique players: the former a versatile wing who attacks off the pick-and-roll and is tasked with defending burly power forwards, the latter a 3-and-D point guard that attacks the defensive glass like a guy a foot taller than him. Both juniors can score, pass, and rebound, and they’re probably the best individual defenders in their respective position groups.
At this point of his career, it’s starting to look like Zak Irvin might be the best four Beilein’s had at Michigan. The promise of his late-season sophomore surge a year ago didn’t show through early on this season as he recovered from a back injury, but as he’s gotten healthier, Irvin has started to build on that strong finish: in the last month, his three-point shot has recovered, he’s averaged over four assists per game, and he’s often drawn the toughest individual matchup on defense in that time.
Most importantly, he’s a matchup issue for teams that like to go big: consider Michigan’s win over Maryland, in which 4-5 pick-and-rolls and hot three-point shooting leveraged the Terrapins out of their preferred lineups featuring Layman/Carter/Stone. That Irvin enables U-M to unlock the advantages of playing a wing at the four on offense – shooting and playmaking – without conceding the usual disadvantages on the other end is critical in mitigating the disadvantage the Wolverines have against bigger teams.
Paul Sherman
Kenpom now has a feature in which it names an “MVP” in each individual game based on an algorithm of traditional box score stats; in the last four games – granted, against mediocre or worse opponents – Walton has been the most valuable player:
- Minnesota: 22 points (19 shot equivalents), 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal
- Nebraska: 19 (11), 12, 6, 2
- Rutgers: 14 (12.5), 3, 4, 1
- Penn State: 13 (12), 10, 7, 3
As we noted recently, Derrick Walton is a truly singular player. His combination of three-point shooting, assist rate, and defensive rebounding is virtually unparalleled and while he does have some weaknesses in his game (like only 36% shooting from two), Walton’s done well to play to his strengths. Even though he’s still likely best as a role player – remember, he was very effective as a freshman as a spot-up shooter off the ball – he’s been able to handle the responsibility as Michigan’s sole creator whenever Irvin is off the floor.
Entering the season, Michigan looked to have four rotation-quality guards: Caris LeVert, Derrick Walton, Spike Albrecht, and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman. Now, only two of those four have been healthy, and while Caris is likely to return somewhat soon, Michigan’s been able to stay afloat with just Walton – who missed most of last year’s Big Ten season due to injury – and Rahkman – who tends to stop the ball and drive with a singular focus towards shooting the ball. It’s impressive that Michigan’s guard play hasn’t really suffered; while credit should go to Rahkman for ably stepping into starter’s minutes and Irvin for occasionally playing as a two on offense, most should go to Walton, who’s been crucial in ways that aren’t readily evident – just consider his excellent work on the defensive glass.
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Other thoughts
- Duncan Robinson’s recent stretch of (relatively) cold shooting isn’t too much of a concern, as Michigan is still hitting over 40% in conference play. Still, Michigan’s chances at upsets often hinge on good outside shooting – and by extension Robinson, who’s capable of making enough by himself to turn an average shooting night into a great one.
- Michigan’s big man depth is iffy, but if Caris is able to come back healthy and play as much as he was before the injury, the Wolverines’ depth at guard and at wing should be pretty decent with Rahkman and Dawkins coming in off the bench. Beilein typically favors shorter rotations anyways, so the backup minutes at the five are the only really serious lineup concerns if LeVert makes it back.
- Beilein has been tinkering with a 2-3 zone lately and it seems to have been pretty effective. When teams have more than one defensive minus on the floor at the same time, a zone can be a good idea – unless Michigan’s facing good shooting, packing it in and daring opponents to shoot over them is a decent strategy with their personnel.
- The 1-3-1 still makes an occasional appearance – it’s good that Michigan feels comfortable enough with that to use it, as it’s often more effective against non-conference foes come tournament time as opposed to Big Ten teams that have scouted it for years.
- By and large, the defense is still pretty bad. With Michigan’s recruiting emphasis and coaching strength’s, Beilein’s teams will always be offense-first (which is great from an aesthetic perspective), but that offense has to be good enough to cover for a pretty mediocre defense this season.
- The quest for a backup four continues and it hasn’t been going well – neither Kam Chatman nor D.J. Wilson have been able to contribute solid minutes there, which creates a real problem when Irvin is off the floor. Even when LeVert comes back, this will still be an issue; I’m guessing Beilein will eventually have to accept that minutes with both Aubrey Dawkins and Duncan Robinson on the floor are a necessity.
- MARK DONNAL. Seriously. What a transformation.
As Caris continues to work back – my totally uninformed guess is that he won’t be back for the Indiana game tomorrow, but who knows – it still feels like this is an incomplete team, but the development of Michigan’s junior class has been an incredibly positive sign. With a backloaded Big Ten schedule, we’ll see how much Michigan has improved – this team could very well be a threat to reach the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament, and, in the meantime, is poised to finish in the top four of the Big Ten this season.