THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
Michigan (14-5, 4-2 B1G) at Nebraska (12-8, 4-3) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Pinnacle Bank Arena Lincoln, Nebraska |
| WHEN | 2 pm ET, Saturday |
| LINE | Nebraska -1 (KenPom) |
| TV |
ESPN2 PBP: Dave Lamont Analyst: Dan Dakich |
Right: The last time these two teams met, Andrew Dakich was all smiles. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]
THE US
LeVertWatch continues. John Beilein said today that he's "doubtful" for tomorrow's game. While Beilein still won't reveal the specific nature of the injury, he said it wasn't related to the stress fracture that cost LeVert most of 2014-15 (it's "just an injury"), and he still expects him to be back this year. I have no idea how comforting that is supposed to be, but with Rutgers next on the docket, I'd be surprised if we see LeVert on the court for another week at the earliest.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 32 | Benny Parker | Sr. | 5'9, 175 | 63 | 12 | No | ||||||||||||
| Short, low-usage, decent outside shooter, mediocre assist:turnover ratio. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 5 | Glynn Watson Jr. | Fr. | 6'0, 160 | 55 | 22 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
| Iffy shooter, team's most efficient distrubutor, top-100 steal rate. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 3 | Andrew White III | Jr. | 6'7, 216 | 70 | 24 | No | ||||||||||||
| Impressive 61/43/79 shooting splits on high usage. Good def. rebounder. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 31 | Shavon Shields | Sr. | 6'7, 225 | 76 | 28 | Kinda | ||||||||||||
| Dominates ball, excellent mid-range shooter, decent finisher. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 12 | Michael Jacobson | Fr. | 6'8, 222 | 38 | 15 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Solid offensive rebounder, decent shot-blocker, finishing needs work. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 0 | Tai Webster | Jr. | 6'4, 196 | 66 | 20 | No | ||||||||||||
| 51/41/77 shooting splits. Turnover-prone but much-improved. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 10 | Jack McVeigh | Fr. | 6'8, 210 | 42 | 17 | No | ||||||||||||
| Just A Shooter™ type making 35% of his threes. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 30 | Ed Morrow | Fr. | 6'7, 225 | 35 | 16 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Undersized post shooting 62% but high turnover rate ruining efficiency. | |||||||||||||||||||
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
While Nebraska's record doesn't make them look too dangerous, this is a tricky game for Michigan. The Huskers are coming off an upset of Michigan State at the Breslin Center and earlier this season they pushed #13 Miami (YTM) all the way to overtime before falling a home. After languishing in the 100s for most of the season, they've risen to #78 on KenPom after four straight wins.
The Huskers are led by forwards Shavon Shields and Andrew White, two high-volume scorers with very different styles. Shields does most of his damage inside the arc; he's a great midrange shooter who can create his own looks. While, on the other hand, eschews the midrange game almost entirely in favor of three-pointers or drives to the rim—he's a very good shooter and finisher.
The starting backcourt is undersized with 5'9" Benny Parker and rail-thin 6'0" freshman Glynn Watson Jr., and neither of them are very good shooters. Parker is more turnover-prone; Watson actually has the better point guard profile. The Huskers get a major boost off the bench in Tai Webster, who's taken a big leap forward as a scorer this season—he's shooting 41% from beyond the arc.
Nebraska's bigs also aren't particuarly, um, big. Their current one-two at center is 6'8", 222-pound freshman Michael Jacobson and 6'7", 225-pound freshman Ed Morrow. Jacobson is only shooting 48% from the field but he draws a ton of fouls and makes 81% of his free throws; he's also a strong offensive rebounder. Morrow is a much better finisher (62% FG) and even better on the offensive glass, but he's plagued by turnovers and fouls.
THE RESUME
I kinda got this section out of the way already, but more details: Nebraska is 3-7 against top-100 KenPom teams, and their best win prior to MSU was over #74 Rhode Island. They have one bad loss, which came by 11 points at home against #194 Samford. After a tough 0-3 start to Big Ten play with losses to Northwestern, Indiana, and Iowa, they got back to .500 against the dregs of the conference (Rutgers, Minnesota, Illinois) before springing the upset in Breslin.
THE TEMPO-FREE
I've switched over to conference-only stats. Sample size caveat applies but these should give a better idea of how teams stack up at the moment.
Nebraska is heavily two-point reliant, which isn't a huge surprise since Shields is their top option. They've been shooting well from three this season, but on a relatively low volume. Their low turnover mark in Big Ten play may be a short-term anomaly; their full-season numbers aren't nearly as good.
The Husker defense is quite mediocre. They rank between 6th and 9th in the B1G in all but a couple categories: steals (fourth) and foul rate (13th). Opponents attempt the second-highest rate of three-pointers against Nebraska in the conference, which is good news for a Michigan team not built to take full advantage of their hack-heavy ways.
THE KEYS
Attack the basket. Nebraska doesn't have a fearsome interior presence, they foul a lot, and they're prone to giving up open drive-and-kick looks. Zak Irvin and Derrick Walton both got the the rim at will against Minnesota; a similar performance could open up some great looks on the outside for Duncan Robinson and the rest of the spot-up shooters.
Robinson's defense. Duncan Robinson is probably going to have to match up against either Shields or, more likely, White. While Robinson's on-ball defense has taken a big step forward over the course of the season, that's going to be a significant challenge; he can't lose White on the perimeter if that ends up being his mark.
Make wide-open threes. Self-explanatory after that Minnesota game, I hope. I don't want to live in a world in which Robinson isn't money when he's left all alone at his favorite spot on the court.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Nebraska by 1.
A road game without LeVert against an improving team won't be easy. This one could easily come down to the one-on-one battle between Irvin and Shields; whoever wins that individual matchup should lead his team to victory.