Preview: Minnesota

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: This could probably suffice as the game preview. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE US

We're going to have to wait at least one more game for Caris LeVert's return:

But with just one practice between Michigan’s games against Iowa and Minnesota and Beilein’s stated desire to see LeVert practice at least two days in a row before playing him, the coach does not expect the Wolverines’ leading scorer to play Wednesday.

“We continue to get encouraging news about Caris,” Beilein said. “He’s doing more and more right now, on and off the court. We expect on and off the court, going forward, (but) have no (return) date yet.”

“I would assume (he will not play Wednesday). We’ve only got one day to measure (the injury).”

LeVert hasn't done more than "light shooting" in practice at this point; it might be a week or two before he's ready to suit up again. The good news is Michigan has hit a four-game stretch of their schedule in which they should be able to weather his absence.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

If Rutgers weren't so busy being a national embarrassment, more Big Ten fans would be casting a sideways glance at Minnesota, which currently stands at 0-6 in the conference and languishes at #203 in the KenPom rankings. Richard Pitino has fielded five different starting lineups; the tinkering hasn't produced the desired results.

Leading scorer Joey King, a stretch four making 47% of his threes, has come off the bench the last two games. Little-used freshman Ahmad Gilbert, a Just A Shooter™ type hitting only 24% of his threes, had been his replacement, but he's out for a few weeks with a dislocated finger. That change didn't make a whole lot of sense, but King should step back into the lineup; while he provides no rebounding presence at all, he's by far the team's most effective scorer despite not being very efficient inside the arc. If King doesn't start, Charles Buggs is a similar player—a better inside finisher but a worse outside shooter—but doesn't get to the line nearly as often.

The two players we can expect to start in the frontcourt are forward Jordan Murphy, a top-100 rebounder on both ends, and center Bakary Konate, who boasts a top-100 block rate. Both players finish well near the basket and draw a lot of fouls; both aren't very good free-throw shooters. Murphy takes the occasional three but only makes 30% of those.

The backcourt has also seen some shuffling. Point guard Nate Mason is the constant; he's a good distrubutor but his shooting leaves a lot to be desires. Gunner Carlos Morris, a 40% three-point shooter who's otherwise quite inefficient, was recently replaced in the lineup by freshman Dupree McBrayer. McBrayer gets to the line at will—his FT rate is north of 80—but his shooting splits are an ugly 32/14/66.

THE RESUME

The Gophers are 1-8 against KenPom top-100 teams; they beat Clemson at home, but Oklahoma State was the only other game they kept truly competitive until the end. Meanwhile, they've lost to both South Dakota and South Dakota State. The Gophers have lost seven straight and eight of their last 11, with the only win in that span coming against #341 Chicago State.

THE TEMPO-FREE

I'm switching over to conference-only stats for this game. Sample size caveat applies but these should give a better idea of how teams stack up at the moment. Minnesota probably wishes I'd waited another game, because...

Four Factors explanation

...woof.

The Minnesota offense is almost entirely reliant on getting to the line; foul avoidance is something Michigan does quite well. The defense has been horrendous, allowing B1G opponents to make 58% of their twos, a conference-worst mark; if they don't force turnovers they're in deep trouble.

THE KEYS

Take care of the ball. If Michigan doesn't gift an aggressive—often out-of-control aggressive—Minnesota squad the ball on too many occasions, this one should take care of itself. The Gophers simply aren't built to beat this team in a halfcourt-centric game.

Don't hack. Minnesota is 13th in the Big Ten in 2P% and ninth in 3P%. While they aren't good free-throw shooters—a hair below 70% as a team—their ability to get to the line keeps the offense from being truly awful. Better for Michigan to cede an open look or two than get overaggressive and play into Minnesota's hands.

Mitigate Murphy. The player who looks like he could do some damage is Jordan Murphy, who crashes the glass and can finish around the basket. Look for Michigan to put Zak Irvin on him; Irvin's done a solid job guarding power forwards with more bulk than Murphy.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 17.

Only Boston College, St. John's, and—yup—Rutgers are worse among major-conferece teams. Even without LeVert, this is a game Michigan should handle with relative ease.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview.