Preview: Iowa

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Obligatory Franpic. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

THE US

I hoped waiting until today to write the preview would provide clarity on Caris LeVert's situation, but as of this writing his availability is unknown:

Michigan coach John Beilein provided little update on the Wolverines' injured senior star on Friday, other than to say that LeVert's injury, which the program has only described as a lower-left leg injury, would be tested on Friday.

"Caris will go through a series of tests today, again, to see where he is," Beilein said during an afternoon press conference previewing the Wolverines' weekend trip to Iowa (13-3, 4-0 Big Ten). "If he tests with no pain, he'll begin the process of practicing. If he tests with pain, then he'll just be doing some things that will help his healing."

No word yet on how those tests went; I'm guessing we won't know if he's a go until warmups.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Iowa is arguably Michigan's toughest challenge to date. They're off to a 4-0 start in Big Ten play that already includes a sweep of Michigan State, which they completed Thursday at the Breslin Center with an Izzoface-inducing blowout:

The Hawkeyes starting lineup features four seniors and a junior, all of whom have played extensive time prior to this season. They're led by power forward Jarrod Uthoff, who's an effective scorer from just about anywhere (via Shot Analytics):

Uthoff combines that efficiency with high usage, minimal turnovers, decent rebounding, and one of the best shot-blocking rates in the country; put it all together and he currently ranks second in KenPom's Player of the Year standings. This is another game where Zak Irvin will have to expend considerable energy on defense.

The man getting Uthoff the ball tends to be point guard Mike Gesell, who has the 11th-best assist rate in the country. While he doesn't take a lot of shots, he's been very good from beyond the arc, and he's become a decent finisher who gets to the line often. He's joined in the backcourt by Anthony Clemmons, a mediocre shooter with an assist rate in point guard territory, and Peter Jok, an impressive athlete with a developing jumper and an aggressive brand of defense for better (lots of steals) or worse (lots of blow-bys when he doesn't get those steals).

Manning the middle is the notorious Adam Woodbury, an excellent rebounder with skill around the basket and a reputation for playing right on the edge of dirty. He rotates with Dom Uhl, who's more of a stretch four type and quite adept in that role; while he's only made 46% of his twos, he's 16/31 from beyond the arc, and he's a solid rebounder.

THE RESUME

Iowa played a trecherous non-conference slate that included five KenPom top-50 opponents, only one of which they faced at home; they went 2-3 in those games, hung tight in each of the losses, and blew out #22 Wichita State on a neutral court.

The sweep of MSU, sandwiched around an upset at Purdue and a win over Nebraska, has vaulted the Hawkeyes to fourth in KenPom's rankings. Iowa is playing as well as any team in the country right now.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

While Iowa has struggled to make two-pointers in Big Ten play, they're knocking down 42% of their threes—Woodbury is the only rotation player who isn't at least somewhat of a threat beyond the arc. They're also getting to the line more than any other team in the conference. Add in decent rebounding and very few turnovers and you get the second-most efficient offense in the Big Ten.

Iowa's defense also ranks second in the Big Ten in efficiency. They block a ton of shots (sixth nationally) and force a bunch of turnovers; opponents have only made 30% of their three-pointers, though that figure looks fluky (they allow an above-average number of attempts). Their main weakness—defensive rebounding—isn't something Michigan is built to exploit.

THE KEYS

Crisp rotations. Iowa doesn't rely on the outside shot nearly as much as Michigan—they're right about average in 3PA/FGA—but they've got a couple skilled passers and several guys who can knock down the three. Michigan's perimeter defense has improved from where it stood in non-conference play—to my eye, they're making fewer mistakes and contesting more shots—and that will have to continue Sunday.

Don't force the issue. While Michigan can't settle for a parade of three-pointers against a team this good at defending the perimeter, they also have to be careful about their shot selection inside the arc. The Hawkeyes block a ton of shots and their best shot-blocker, Jarrod Uthoff, should match up against Zak Irvin, who will again be tasked with creating a lot of offense off the dribble if LeVert can't play. Irvin had a rough outing in similar circumstances against Purdue, going 2/7 on twos with four turnovers; he'll need to pick his spots better this time around.

Get Robinson open. Self-explanatory. I have a hard time seeing Michigan pulling out a win, especially if LeVert isn't out there, unless they find myriad ways to free up Robinson for shots. Someone has to go off and it's probably not going to be Irvin, who will have his hands full on both ends of the court with Uthoff.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Iowa by 11.

With or without LeVert, this is a difficult matchup against a white-hot team. Uthoff ultimately makes the difference in this one.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. KemPom adds a tier feature to his team schedule pages and uses it as an opportunity to go in-depth on RPI and home-court advantage in college hoops:

It turns out those adjustments are important. Beating the 90th-ranked team on the road is about as difficult as beating the 50th-best team on a neutral floor, which is roughly as difficult as beating the 20th-best team on one’s home floor. (The exact relationship can vary by season.) So it’s poor form to ignore this when some teams in college never go on the road in non-conference and others rarely get to play a non-conference game at home.

I hadn't seen home-court advantage presented that way statistically before.