Preview: Maryland

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Testudo shows off his hops. [Patrick Barron/MGoBlog]

THE US

Caris LeVert's "lower leg" injury that occurred in the Illinois game is probably going to keep him off the court for a third straight game, according to John Beilein:

“You all want your Caris update, which it seems like we’ve been having the injury report here for three years,” Beilein said on Monday. “So the injury report is that there is less pain every day, less yesterday, we elected to not have him still practice yesterday to let the healing try to complete itself.

“I’m not optimistic about tomorrow. The longer it goes, the more he’s going to need 2 to 3 days of practice, or he won’t be ready of he could risk further injury. That’s all I’ve got to say, and that’s all I prefer to say.”

Decreasing pain levels is a good sign; Beilein pulling LeVert from practice and not putting a timeline on his return is not. If LeVert can't go against Iowa on Sunday, Michigan may want to consider giving him extended time off to fully recover; their subsequent four games are MINN, @NEB, RUT, @PSU, the easiest remaining stretch on the schedule.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

If Maryland hasn't quite lived up to their preseason billing as a potential one-seed, they've come close, and the Terps lineup poses a couple significant challenges for a Michigan squad that will once again be without its best player.

It starts with point guard Melo Trimble, who's taken major steps forward as a distributor and finisher to build on an outstanding freshman season. Trimble is posting 57/40/87 shooting splits; he's dished out 91 assists against 39 turnovers; he also has 22 steals. Derrick Walton had a lot of trouble staying in front of his man against Purdue; if he turns in a similar defensive performance tonight, Michigan is in a lot of trouble.

Rasheed Sulaimon (49% 3P) and Jake Layman (36%) give Trimble two reliable outside shooters to find off the pick-and-roll. Sulaimon is the more consistent shooter, while Layman—who played the four last year—provides more of an inside-outside threat. Layman is also a plus on the boards and his size at the three could pose problems for Michigan's wings.

Zak Irvin will have his hands full with power forward Robert Carter, a plus rebounder and shot-blocker who makes 64% of his twos. Carter occasionally extends his range to the three-point line but he's a sub-30% shooter out there; at 235 pounds, he's more likely to spend his time going to work in the post.

The post, of course, is where Michigan usually faces its biggest mismatch, and tonight is no exception. While the unremarkable Damonte Dodd gets most of the starts, five-star freshman Diamond Stone plays the majority of the minutes at the five, and he fits the profile of a big that gives Michigan nightmares: top-ten offensive rebounder nationally, top-100 shot-blocker, 60% finisher who does his damage at the rim. Stone exploded for 39 points against Penn State last month and has posted double-digits in each of his last nine games; keeping him from going Godzilla-in-Tokyo is the top priority tonight.

THE RESUME

Maryland has only suffered one defeat and that came at #7 North Carolina. They beat common opponent UConn by ten on a neutral court, and while they have only one other top-50 win, they've handled their opponents with relative ease outside of Saturday's scare at Wisconsin, where they escaped on a last-second Trimble triple.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Four Factors explanation

Maryland is a balanced squad, ranked 21st in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. The offense combines brutally effective scoring inside the paint with strong three-point shooting; that and regular trips to the line offset an elevated turnover rate.

The Terps aren't Purdue on the defensive end—nobody is this year—but they'll still be tough to score on. Opponents are making 46% of their twos and 31% of their threes; Maryland has the #30 block rate in the country and they rarely foul.

THE KEYS

Get the pick-and-roll going. Michigan didn't have a whole lot of success against Purdue, but when they did it was often a product of the center actually diving to the hoop off a high screen, whether or not that big actually got the ball; the offense bogged down when the big drifted to the perimeter, leaving M to play hot potato around the arc. If Zak Irvin can get going off the dribble, the Wolverines can keep up; if he struggles like he did at Purdue, the outlook isn't good.

Stay in front of Trimble. I've harped on Walton's defense enough. He needs to do a much better job of keeping his man in front of him if Michigan wants to slow the Maryland offense. If Trimble is getting to the basket at will and forcing M's defense to help and rotate, they'll generate open outside shots much like the Boilermakers did, and Maryland has better shooters.

Survive on the boards. A silver lining from the Purdue game: for the first time this season in a loss, Michigan didn't get dominated on the boards—in fact, they kept the battle even. The Wolverines should be able to gain an edge in the turnover battle; they can't give it back by allowing a bunch of second-chance points.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.

It's a home game and Michigan's been afforded two more days of rest and preparation than Maryland. If you're not feeling nearly as optimistic as KenPom due to LeVert's absence, I can't blame you.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview.