Preview: Purdue

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Purdue Pete struggles to cope with 2013 Michigan's talent [Fuller].

THE US

Caris LeVert returned to practice yesterday after a one-game absence following his rolled ankle against Illinois. His pain level will determine if he's able to give it a go tonight:

“He’s been trying to do different things,” Beilein said. “Caris will be out there in practice today, and we’ll see how he does. If he is not able to do it without pain, he will not play. If he plays without pain, he’ll be in there.”

Beilein noted that LeVert will continue to try in practices until he’s healthy, including Thursday’s pregame shootaround in West Lafayette, and said that he will warm up tomorrow and see how he feels before a decision is made.

LeVert's presence is of paramount importance against the top-ranked defensive squad in the country.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

I was one of the skeptics regarding Purdue's effort to build a team around three bigs in an increasingly guard-oriented college basketball landscape, but instead of getting bogged down, they've thrived; Purdue holds the #7 spot on KenPom thanks to a solid offense and a near-impenetrable defense.

It all starts up front with the center duo of AJ Hammons and Isaac Haas. Hammons is consistently playing at the high level of play he'd reach but fail to maintain in his previous three seasons at Purdue; he's one of the better rebounders in the country, shoots 62% from the field, and boasts a top-20 block rate. Haas doesn't quite reach Hammons' level statistically in most categories but he's close, gets to the line more often, and is just a bigger guy to deal with—opponents don't get a break when Hammons takes a seat.

Five-star freshman Caleb Swanigan plays the four for Purdue; he'd be a center on the vast majority of college squads. He's also great on the glass, and on offense he can be an inside-outside force when his game is going right—he dropped 25 on Butler, going 7/10 on two-pointers and 3/4 on threes. Swanigan hasn't been able to produce consistently at that level, however, shooting 48% from two and 31% from three on the season with an elevated turnover rate.

Wing Vince Edwards, the former Michigan target, can score with decent efficiency both inside and outside the arc, and he may be Purdue's best passer. The other starting wing, Rapheal Davis, won the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year award last season (edging out Hammons), and this season he's continued to lock down his man with devastating effectiveness:

Rapheal Davis, last year’s Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, has been locking down opposing wing guards in the Big Ten for four years now and this year is no exception. Davis grades out in the 99th percentile defensively according to Synergy Sports and opponents are shooting just 16% against him.

16%. Jeebus. In addition to being a lockdown perimeter defender, Davis has turned into a plus offensive player, shooting 42% from three and frequently getting to the line, where he shoots 80%.

Point guard is the weak spot in the lineup. 5'10" sophomore PJ Thompson, a very low-usage guard with a decent outside shot and a knack for drawing fouls, took over the starting job a few weeks ago from senior Johnny Hill, whose turnovers and lack of an outside shot offset his impressive finishing at the rim.

THE RESUME

Purdue has three wins over KenPom top-50 opponents, all by at least 13 points, and if Wisconsin moved up six spots they'd have a fourth with two of them coming on the road. The Boilermakers are coming off their second loss of the season after a furious Iowa comeback on Saturday at Mackey; their other defeat came against #36 Butler in a neutral-site game.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

To put it simply, Purdue's defense is insanely good. Opponents are making 38% of their twos and 28% of their threes, and it's tough to generate outside looks against them (33rd in 3PA/FGA). While they don't force many turnovers, they don't allow second chances and have a remarkably low foul rate for a team that blocks so many shots (37th nationally).

The Boilermakers offense does impressive work near the basket (54% on twos) and makes up for average three-point shooting by getting a lot of offensive boards. As Dylan notes, they go to the post far more than any other Big Ten team, and they're quite effective when they do so:

To say the least, this game will be a huge test for Michigan's bigs.

THE KEYS

Keep the ball moving. Hammons/Haas looms inside and Raphael Davis will try to lock down Michigan's top option, whether that's LeVert if he plays or Irvin/Robinson if he doesn't. Michigan's offense has thrived of late due to the combination of the pick and roll gaining effectiveness and the team moving the ball really well around the perimeter. Against this squad, they have to find a way to generate outside shots, and they're not going to do it going one-on-one.

Survive inside. Purdue is going to get their second chances. They're going to block some shots. They're going to get post points. The key for Michigan is to keep from getting overwhelmed. If the offense is going okay the Wolverines can weather Purdue rebounding 30-35% of their misses, but if that number creeps towards 40%, Michigan will be in huge trouble.

Capitalize on easy chances. The lone category in which Purdue struggles significantly is turnovers; this is where Michigan can regain the edge they're going to lose in the paint. The Wolverines have a shot if they're winning the turnover battle and getting some easy buckets in transition. If they have to operate exclusively out of halfcourt sets, it's difficult to see a path to victory.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Purdue by 9.

Even if Donnal plays near the level he's been at the last two games, Purdue still has a huge advantage up front, especially when comparing the backup options (Haas >>> Doyle). Michigan will need a great shooting performance, and while they're fully capable, it's hard to expect that against the top-ranked defense in the country; Davis' ability to eliminate a perimeter scorer makes as much of a difference as the centers roaming the paint.

THE MOMENT OF ZEN

Video from our own Patrick Barron of the 2014 last-second victory at Mackey:

Good times.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Dylan takes a closer look at Donnal's last two games.