This Week’s Obsession: Outlandish 2016 Predictions

Melanie Maxwell | The Ann Arbor News

The Question:

Make an outlandish prediction for 2016.

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Adam: De'Veon Smith will rush for 1,000+ yards with 5 yards per carry. Smith should have a little more room to run in 2016 thanks to John O'Korn's downfield aptitude, the development of Jehu Chesson from receiver with track speed to receiver with track speed and hands, and an offensive line that will have two years of getting Drevno'd under their belts.

Five YPC is a lofty estimate, but if Smith shows the kind of vision he did in the bowl game it's attainable; he rushed for 109 yards and 4.4 YPC against S&P+'s fifth-ranked run defense. Smith was injured most of the year, and his carries and yards/game dropped as a result. I think he would have gotten double-digit carries in every game had he not been hurt and expect him to in 2016. I also don't think there's another back on the roster who's likely to steal those extra carries. Sure, Kareem Walker will probably play, but I'd be surprised if he gets more than the 55 carries Drake Johnson got in 2015.

[Hit THE JUMP because someone makes a lemon bet on a linebacker]

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Ace: Brandon Peters wins the starting job and turns in a Henne-like freshman season. The setup is pretty similar: a backup who’s been around but hasn’t seen the field is favored to replace a successful departing QB on an offense loaded with returning talent; there are a couple other options, including a heralded true freshman.

This isn’t any knock on O’Korn, who I think will be successful next year if he wins the job (and there’s a very good likelihood of that; these are, after all, outlandish predictions). After seeing him a few times this year, though, including once in person, I believe Peters is the most talented passer to hit campus since Henne, and he’s got the skills in place to make an early impact. He had great command of his high school offense—which was a pass-heavy offense operating from the gun—and displayed excellent arm strength, good decision-making, and a level of touch some QBs never develop.

Having a group of veteran receivers to increase the margin for error helps, too, as we learned in 2004. Peters also has an advantage Henne lacked; he’s an early enrollee who will be on campus as soon as he’s done with the Army game this weekend. If he can absorb the offense, he’s got a good chance to be a four-year starter.

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MGOKNOCK ON WOOD:

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Ace: My other rationale for this: the major question mark for O’Korn is his decision-making, which is usually the concern when starting a freshman. If that’s going to be an issue either way—and hopefully it’s not—then they might as well go with the player with the better long-term outlook, and Peters is that guy.

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Brian: I don't think Brandon Peters Is The Worst is applicable anymore since Rudock managed to make my preseason prediction spot-on. Also even Brandon Peters Is Quite Good thinks that BPIQG is going to redshirt, so that is indeed a truly outlandish prediction.

As far as an outlandish prediction, does a guy who's started at left tackle for two years moving to the interior even count anymore? I think we all think that Mason Cole is destined for center this year, which will take a lot of people who don't follow the program in microscopic detail by surprise. So that's a mildly outlandish one, I guess.

My certainly outlandish prediction is that Jeremy Clark is a first or second round pick in next year's NFL draft. Clark had the odd struggle last year but most of the completions that got put on his face reminded me of those that got put on the freshman version of Jourdan Lewis. The back-shoulder corner route against Minnesota, that massively underthrown ball against Indiana spring to mind, and the touchdown OSU managed despite Clark getting in an excellent SHORYUKEN come to mind.

Clark can line up in press with inside leverage against anyone, keep pace, and then use his size to bat the ball away. He didn't  get his head around every time but he did so frequently enough that I think he's going to be able to make a bunch of plays on the ball this year, draw comparisons to Richard Sherman, and pique NFL GM's interest in a major way.

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Seth: We are going outlandish (IE we aren’t actually >33% confident this will happen) so I'm going to take a stab at something...well it's pretty out there. That is: Michigan will start a walk on at middle linebacker next year. I'm talking about Dan Liesman, who would have to be convinced to return for a 5th year. I have three arguments to make in his favor though.

1. He stood out to me in the spring game as having a very good grasp of things even when the offense tried that funny stuff Lloyd came up with. He's also the only guy in 2015 to stop De'Veon Smith's momentum in a head to head collision. Speed and athleticism matter for linebackers, but they're tertiary things after "not getting fooled" and "not getting blocked." Desmond Morgan just finished a fine Michigan career despite little to recommend him physically, and Liesman's film looks a lot like Desmond Morgan.

2. Don Brown doesn't just like his linebackers quick. He wants the MLB to be the smartest guy on the team and the leader on the field. Minus Bolden and Morgan who is that? Peppers perhaps. But for two years running Liesman's name has popped up in those bloggish questionnaires the players do as the most intelligent man in the locker room and a guy the other guys turn to.

3. Bah gawd have you seen the other linebackers? I know, I know, they all played ahead of Liesman this year. They also needed the snaps, and have higher upsides.
It's plausible that McCray comes back from injury and wins a job in fall and that Gedeon shines under Brown, and that with Peppers out there you don't need more than two for the bulk of snaps. It's also quite likely we'll see Furbush and Winovich and Wangler's son and freshmen and anything else that looks vaguely like a linebacker on the field next year. But I keep coming back to this thought that in most of those scenarios, especially early in the season, Liesman is likely to be one of the best two linebacker options on the roster. If he's on the roster at all, of course.

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Ace: If Liesman beats out all those guys and Devin Bush, I’ll eat a lemon and the rind.

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David: Michigan will WIN the College Football Playoff.

There. I said it. We were all thinking it as soon as we read the topic. ​I thought about Chesson being an All American or Michigan having 5 NFL 1st Rounders or fill-in-the-blank winning the Heisman. But let's be real. This is what we all want. This is why everybody wanted Jim Harbaugh to coach Michigan. The time is now...or will be after a tantalizingly long off-season.

Why, you ask? Because:

The Players. This is why everyone (maybe, maybe not Willie Henry, we'll see) is coming back. Do they love playing together? Sure. Have they formed a deepened brotherhood because of the '13 and '14 seasons and now what happened in '15? You bet. Have they seen what this coaching staff can turn them into? Obviously. But...at least three guys -maybe four or five- are all putting off their paydays because they think they can be a big piece of being the best team in the country. 2015 showed how close Michigan came to having a shot in just Year 1 of Harbaugh. Now, bring almost everybody back for a "Those Who Stay" moment.

Will there be any linebackers? Will there need to be? IF anyone gets through that monstrous DL, there should be more than enough DBs for Michigan to fill in any weaker points in the young linebacking corps (Nickel, Dime, etc). The OL will be the oldest M has had since...yeah. (Seth? I'm sure this edition of Jimmystats will be coming along soon). They may not be ELITE but with (hopefully, continued) new and improved De'Veon Lasik Smith, a (hopefully, continued...again) healthy Drake Johnson and a stable of touted freshmen RBs, they may not have to be. Who is the most talented pass-catching target? I actually don't know. And not for the same reasons I wasn't sure back in August. Pick one of the three and I'll say that you're right! Who here is worried about Harbaugh developing a QB or finding a FB? Oh, no one? Me either. Could this roster be better? Absolutely. But it still looks pretty frickin' good.
 
The Schedule/Opponents.

Diagram by Seth

I actually think 2016 sets up better for Michigan than 2015 did. The timing of the Utah game kinda put Michigan behind the Eight Ball to start the season. Michigan's first five 2016 games will be at home. The non-conference is not very appetizing but giving O'Korn/Peters/Gentry/Hill a few games to get acclimated may not be the worst thing. Wisconsin does come to Ann Arbor and while they did beat USC a week ago, they are not the 'late aughts Badgers' that were striking fear into everyone's eyes. While MSU and OSU are both on the road, both outfits lose a considerable about of talent (Inline image 1and MSU loses most of the DL, several OL, Cook, Burbridge, etc). After Michigan beat them until they didn't...I think that will be a fun game in East Lansing. OSU probably has a 6 star for every player they lose, but we'll see how cohesively they can come together...and what Don Brown can do to stop them. At Iowa City can be tricky as always. The thing is Michigan can probably afford to lose a game (aside from maybe the OSU game). They would obviously need to win the B10CG, but that's just how it is now.

Jim Harbaugh. This is why he's here, man. If you don't think he's already game-planning with Bo every night for each opponent and scouting every player for weaknesses, you've encountered a different man than I have. He had this team believing a Title was in sight in 2015 and he wasn't TOO far off. No way he doesn't know the landscape and see this roster chalked full of upperclassmen and realize what kind of opportunity he has. He developed this team from eh to very good in a year. Next year: very good to...Elite? Yeah...Elite.

Obviously, many injuries and idiots can throw wrenches in plans, etc...but all things being equal, Who's Got It Better Than Us?