It's more likely than not this will go in. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]
Before Michigan takes on Purdue in their first huge test of conference play, I took a few questions on the season thus far and the outlook going forward. Let's start with a fun one.
@AceAnbender How unreasonable is it that I expect Dunkin to finish the season +50% from 3? #mgomailbag
— NOSDOOM (@MGoFour) January 6, 2016
Not at all unreasonable! Michigan is essentially at the midpoint of the season—they've played 15 of their 31 regular-season games—and Robinson is shooting 57% on over six three-point attempts per game. That alone is a good sample to go on and feel optimistic.
It's also reasonable based on the eye test. Robinson gets his share of great looks created by the LeVert/Irvin/Walton trio, which knows by now that finding Robinson open on the perimeter is the most optimal shot to generate on a given possession. Mark Donnal's emergence as a pick-and-roll threat is creating more open looks for Robinson as the spot-up option in a three-man game; even if that's not sustainable against better teams, it can only help his output compared to the beginning of the year, when M had little P&R game to speak of.
Most importantly, we already know Robinson is an incredible shooter. He hit 46% of his threes as a freshman at Williams while being the focal point of the offense. He spent his redshirt year shattering Nik Stauskas' practice records. He's got a textbook, repeatable stroke, leaving him less prone to the streakiness of a guy like Zak Irvin.
For Robinson to drop to 50% on the year, he'd have to cool off considerably. If we assume he finishes the season with 200 three-point attempts (he's at 91 right now), he'd have to shoot 44%—a 13-point dropoff from his current average—just to sink to 50%. While his shooting may take a hit due to the increased level of competition, I don't think the effect will be nearly that drastic. This is a special player.
[Hit THE JUMP for a breakdown of M's win probability against top-tier teams, parallels between this squad and the 2011-12 team, a guess at the next breakout performance, and more.]
@AceAnbender with the recent productivity of the bigs, is Beilein ready to play inside out, or is it just the competition? #mgomailbag
— IG: IG? WhoILookLike (@sd_brown33) January 6, 2016
This answer I can keep pretty short: Michigan is never going to be an inside-out team under Beilein. If Donnal continues to operate this well on the pick-and-roll, Michigan will get back to running that with high frequency, but that's still going to result in as many drives by guards and kickouts to spot-up shooters as it will touches for the bigs. With the considerable amount of talent on the perimeter—and, yes, the relative dearth of reliable production from the bigs—there's no reason for Michigan to force the ball into the paint for the sake of playing in the paint.
And, yes, Donnal's two-game outburst has been aided by the competition. Illinois essentially played a 220-pound stretch five for most of that game, while Penn State's seven-footer logged less than half the team's minutes and didn't look great when he was out there.
@AceAnbender, (1/2) how many total Big Ten wins (including BTT) do you think we need for a lock bid? 12? #mgomailbag
— Eddie Muransky (@eddiemuransky) January 6, 2016
@AceAnbender, (2/2) or do we need a certain number of Iowa/MSU/Maryland/Purdue wins after an underwhelming nonconference season? #Mgomailbag
— Eddie Muransky (@eddiemuransky) January 6, 2016
I'll address the second part of the question first: Michigan is going to win a couple of those big games. Thanks to Lorne (LSAClassOf2000) for throwing together a win probability distribution for Michigan's seven games against those four teams, we have a good idea of the chances they'll get to that mark (percentages might not add up to 100% because of rounding):
| Wins | Probability (%) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 |
| 1 | 14.5 |
| 2 | 28.7 |
| 3 | 29.8 |
| 4 | 17.3 |
| 5 | 5.7 |
| 6 | 1.0 |
| 7 | 0.1 |
There's only a 17.5% chance Michigan doesn't reach that two-win mark. Going 3-4 over those games is a reasonable expectation.
Even if Michigan struggles against the upper-tier opponents, they only need to go 9-7 the rest of the way to hit 11 Big Ten wins (and 21 total) before the conference tournament starts; win the BTT opener and that should have them safely on the right side of the bubble.
@AceAnbender What % would you actually put on Caris returning this season? #mgomailbag
— Mark Kellogg (@markakellogg) January 6, 2016
Cripes, this question scared me when it came in, because I thought some awful news about LeVert's injury had broken while I was asleep. That's not the case. LeVert's injury is relatively minor, much like Derrick Walton's ankle twist earlier this season; LeVert rolled his ankle, and not a particularly nasty-looking roll at that, against Illinois, and the resulting pain is keeping him out for the moment. John Beilein said he's day-to-day on Monday; it sounds like if he's not back for Purdue it won't be much longer than that.
@AceAnbender If for some reason you want like a REAL question... #mgomailbagpic.twitter.com/WC6s19Fu4t
— Abraham May (@Smoothitron) January 6, 2016
The path for this team turning into a frontrunner involves Mark Donnal sustaining this level of play for the rest of the season; for Michigan's offense to go from very good to elite they need that high screen game functioning at a high level, and until the last two games it wasn't. As much as I want to believe, I'm skeptical Donnal's breakout is wholly sustainable.
Statistically, this team is similar to that 2011-12 squad, which finished 19th in offensive efficiency, the exact spot this current Michigan team occupies. Both were/are in the 60s in defensive efficiency, as well. There are minor differences—this year's team is better at shooting, 2012 had slightly better rebounding—but that's a reasonable expectation for this year, hopefully without the first-round NCAA tournament upset.
@AceAnbender#mgomailbag who will have the next Donnal-esque breakout game? Wagner? Chatman? Dakich? (Please say Dakich)
— Crisler Spider-Man (@CrislerSpidey) January 6, 2016
I'll go with MAAR. His minutes aren't going anywhere now that Spike Albrecht is out for the year, and while he hasn't developed into a point guard—his assist rate is half that of Robinson's—he's taking care of the ball, getting to the rim and finishing, and hitting a decent rate of his outside shots (9/24 this season).
This may be cheating, since Rahk played 30 minutes against Penn State and scored an efficient 14 points, but that didn't quite feel like a true breakout game. I expect he'll come up big against a major opponent, especially if Derrick Walton stays in his current funk for much longer.
It does not appear to me that our offensive sets change much year-to-year. High ball screen, shooter on the corner/wing, big man rolling to the basket. If this is true, why don't teams know how to defend it by now?
Thanks,
Bryan
For one, that's an oversimplification of Beilein's offense, which contains enough different plays out of the same sets that it's notoriously difficult to pick up as a freshman—as evidence, watch the early games of any young Michigan big from the last several years. Just because Michigan has spread the floor and stuck the center at the top of the key doesn't mean the opponent is tipped off as to what's coming next.
Add to that the fact that different teams defend certain looks—especially the high screen—in different ways, Michigan runs different sets for man and zone defenses, there are contingency plans built into each play, and the team has the creators (especially LeVert) to improvise when all else breaks down, and stopping this offense is far more difficult than pointing to a few sets and saying "shut those down."
@AceAnbender Who would you rather start at the four: ten duck-sized Duncan Robinsons, or one Duncan Robinson-sized duck? #mgomailbag
— Bryan Mac (@Bry_Mac) January 6, 2016
For both legal and defensive purposes, I have to go with one Duncan Robinson-sized duck.