Preview: Penn State

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: WHY ARE OLD MASCOTS ALL SO SAD?

THE US

After Mark Donnal's superlative performance against Illinois, John Beilein is willing to make changes to the rotation if Donnal—or any of the other centers—can produce consistently:

At some point, someone has to lock down the center position. [Donnal] could be on the verge of doing so.

"Is he better coming off the bench? Is he better starting?" Beilein asked rhetorically. "When anybody puts on that type of performance — and he'd been doing it the last week or so in practice before we went on (holiday) break and when we came back, especially when we came back — we're thinking about changing, whether it's the starting lineup or the rotation. It's all in the mix right now."

They'll face a true seven-footer in PSU's Jordan Dickerson today, which should help bring some clarity to the situation heading into Thursday's game at Purdue.

UPDATE: Donnal is starting, but Michigan announced moments ago that Caris LeVert will miss the game with a lower-leg injury of some sort:

ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- University of Michigan men's basketball head coach John Beilein announced this afternoon (Saturday, Jan. 2), senior guard Caris LeVert will sit out the Wolverines game against Penn State with a lower left leg injury.

"Caris will miss today's game and his future status will be determined on a day-to-day basis," said Beilein. "We hope to know more this upcoming week as he continues with his treatment."

LeVert appeared to tweak his left ankle late in the Illinois game, and while he continued to play he limped around a bit. Hopefully this isn't anything major, especially with Purdue looming later this week.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Penn State's top dog is forward Brandon Taylor, who takes nearly 30% of the team's shots when he's on the floor, and while he's not deadly he's relatively effective at 48% shooting inside the arc and 36% from three. Taylor draws just under six fouls per game and makes 68% of his free throws. He should draw Zak Irvin in a matchup of undersized fours that can stuff the stat sheet.

Sophomore Shep Garner is the nominal point guard on a team that doesn't have anyone who truly fits the profile. Garner takes more threes than twos, which is smart, since he's a 41% three-point shooter and a 38% two-point shooter so far this season. Garner takes care of the ball but he also doesn't dole out a ton of assists. He's joined in the backcourt by Josh Reaves, a defensive specialist who's having a rough go on the other end of the floor.

Sophomore wing Payton Banks does solid work on the boards and can finish inside the arc, but he's hoisting a lot of threes that aren't going in (13/53 3P). Manning the middle is seven-footer Jordan Dickerson, one of the nation's best shot-blockers and a force on the offensive glass; he's more of a garbageman than a true post option.

THE RESUME

PSU is coming off a strong showing at Maryland, where they controlled the game, leading by as many as 13 in the second half before getting overwhelmed by Terps center Diamond Stone (39[!] points). They also held tough against #53 Colorado, but have yet to tally a top-100 win in three tries.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

The PSU offense relies on second chances and minimizing turnovers to cover for sub-par shooting in all three categories; all their main rotation players except Garner can make an impact on the offensive glass.

The Nittany Lions are much better defensively than the Illinois squad Michigan just faced. Their main weakness is being quite foul-prone, so we could see a lot of Caris LeVert attacking the basket this afternoon. PSU opponents make just 42% of their two-pointers; if Michigan can't get to the line, their focus will be on generating open perimeter shots.

THE KEYS

Everyone to the boards. While Penn State isn't a good shooting team, they generate a lot of second chances with their offensive rebounding, and just about everyone on the court is capable of crashing the glass effectively. There aren't many worries at this point about the Walton/LeVert/Irvin trio doing their part on the boards; the other non-center on the floor—whether that be Duncan Robinson, Aubrey Dawkins, or MAAR—has to be aware of their man and box out. There's no need to make anything easy for this PSU offense.

Go at Dickerson. It seems counterintuitive to go at one of the nation's best shot-blockers, but Jordan Dickerson plays under half of PSU's available minutes in large part because he picks up a lot of fouls. Michigan is a much better free-throw shooting team than PSU and would gain a decided advantage if they find their way to the line with at least equal frequency. A repeat of what LeVert did against Illinois would be quite welcome.

Run that high screen. No time like the present to find out if Mark Donnal's outburst was a fluke. He ran the high screen beautifully against the Illini; if he can play the two-man game with LeVert anywhere close to that level on a consistent basis it changes the entire outlook of this team. Another emphatic block or two wouldn't be unwelcome, either.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 11.

When it comes down to it, Michigan has a significant shooting advantage. That and Caris LeVert should provide the difference.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview.