Previously: Florida Offense
In this game, UF's best offense was, in fact, their defense.
There's good reason everyone expects the Citrus Bowl to be a defensive slugfest: Florida's defense is every bit as good as their offense is bad, and if you read Tuesday's post you know that's high praise indeed. They held Florida State to 303 yards of total offense on 5.2 yards per play despite getting no help from the other side of the ball; much of that damage came late as Heisman-caliber back Dalvin Cook finally wore down an overworked defensive front.
Michigan does not have a Heisman-caliber back, to say the least. The going won't be easy.
Personnel: Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
There are stars at every level, including a secondary that is arguably the best in the country.
Base Set? 4-3 under. The Gators bring in nickel Brian Poole on passing downs, usually lifting SLB Jeremi Powell, though they'll occasionally go to a three-man line instead.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Man or zone coverage? Florida can play a lot of man due to the quality of their corners and they do so, usually with one deep safety. They don't play as much press coverage as Michigan and they'll mix in a little more zone, as best I can tell—ESPN did their best not to show the secondary on most passing plays.
Pressure: GERG or Greg? The Gators get enough pressure from their D-line that they don't have to dial up blitzes to get to the QB. That said, they'll still bring the heat, often with overload blitzes featuring a delayed rusher. The setup usually looks something like this:
UF has both of their inside linebackers shifted over the weak side; both blitzed and the second man though (Jarrad Davis, #40) forced a throwaway. FSU had trouble figuring out where pressure was going to originate; they allowed a couple free rushers when UF showed similar looks and then backed out.
Dangerman: Well, where do I start? Probably with lineman Jonathan Bullard, who wreaks havok from both the end and tackle spots with a lightning-quick first step, great reads, and plenty of violence:
He had two TFLs in which the O-line barely got a hand on him. He posted PFF's top run-stopping grade in the country; after watching this game, that passes the sanity test for me. The other standout up front is NT Caleb Brantley, who holds up to double-teams and provides a surprising amount of pass-rushing ability; his first step is also tough to handle. The rest of the line is strong across the board; even the true freshman in the rotation, CeCe Jefferson, is a former top-ten overall recruit who looks the part.
The two inside linebackers, Antonio Morrison and Jarrad Davis, are the athletic thumpers Michigan fans have pined for on the Wolverine defense. While Morrison gets more hype, Davis really jumped out to me in this one; he's instinctive, aggressive, and a sure tackler.
The back four is simply lights-out. Florida State didn't bother to test corners Vernon Hargreaves and Jalen Tabor, instead spreading the field and going after third corner Quincy Wilson when they had to go downfield. Hargreaves and Tabor don't jump off the screen physically but it's rare to see a receiver get separation on them.
The best corner duo in the country is paired with arguably the best safety duo in the country. Keanu Neal made a few beautiful open-field tackles in the flat and his lone miss on Dalvin Cook came only after he knocked Cook back two yards but failed to wrap up; he also looked good in coverage. Marcus Maye, meanwhile, is the best safety I've seen this year. He covers a ton of ground as the deep safety in a Cover 1:
That's far from all Maye does. On the next possession, he nearly came up with a pick after jumping a quick hitch in man coverage despite playing a few yards off the receiver at the snap; he'd add one more PBU on the following drive, this time on a crossing route. He's also great in run support and can put heat on the QB when UF rolls him up to the line. Florida's safety duo gives them a lot of flexibility on the back end; they'll roll either safety up to the LOS.
OVERVIEW
Well, crap, I think I covered most of it already. This is one of the best defenses in the country and they'll provide a major challenge for a Michigan offense that's had a hard time consistently moving the ball on the ground. Even though Dalvin Cook had a fine game statistically, he had a difficult time churning out yards until late, as there wasn't an obvious weak point on the Florida line—the ILBs were free to flow to the hole and clean up if a safety didn't get there first.
The lone weak point I noticed for the run defense was the play of SLB Jeremi Powell, and that was more due to the position he got put in than any major deficiency on his part. FSU was able to isolate Powell on a couple outside runs and get him in a blocking mismatch; watch the TE block down and the LT kick out Powell on this exquisite sweep to spring Cook into the secondary:
One well-placed cut from the fullback was all it took to break that play wide open. That's something Michigan may be able to replicate a couple times, even without a back of Cook's ability. FSU's main success came from attacking that strong side and keeping UF honest with misdirection when the ILBs overpursued:
This is a game for Harbaugh to empty the bag of tricks. Michigan's hasn't been able to lean on the run game against a good team all year and a traditional passing game is going to have a tough time consistently moving the chains on this secondary. FSU hit one other lengthy pass, a 22-yard completion that found a soft spot in an unusually conservative Florida zone, and otherwise had to settle for short stuff.
I'm anticipating Michigan will move the ball in fits and spurts. This game will come down to hitting more big plays than Florida—which I think Michigan will do because of Harbaugh's ability to dial up big-hitters to blocky-catchy types—and avoiding any turnovers that could give UF a chance to actually score points on offense. If the field position and turnover battles are relatively even, Michigan has a slight edge because of their clear advantage at quarterback. Give an opening, though, and this Florida defense might win the game on their own.