Preview: Illinois

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: HOW IS THIS RELEVANT IN 2015? STAY TUNED.

THE US

John Beilein updated us on Zak Irvin's injury situation during his media availability yesterday. The takeaway is not ideal:

John Beilein was asked Tuesday if junior guard Zak Irvin is back to 100 percent yet after offseason back surgery. He responded with some unexpected reality.

"I don't think he's going to be at 100 percent the whole year — from where he left off last year," Beilein said. "I think another summer of getting his body right again will probably get him back to 100 percent where he was."

Irvin finally broke out of his three-point shooting slump against Bryant, but if his back is going to continue bothering him, shooting consistently from the outside is going to be difficult.

THE MUMPS

AHHHHHH ILLINOIS HAS THEM

Khalid Lewis of #Illini has mumps although John Groce wouldn't name him specifically. He's "day to day," the coach said. #dechr

— Mark Tupper (@MarkTupper) December 29, 2015

GET DOYLE QUARANTINED STAT

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

Illinois comes in with an injury list that was lengthy before Khalid Lewis—who'd been playing the lion's share of the point guard minutes—contracted THE MUMPS. (Seriously, the mumps. In 2015. Get your shots.) Snake-bitten sixth-year senior point guard Tracy Abrams came back from a torn ACL only to tear his Achilles before the season; center Mike Thorne is out indefinitely with a torn meniscus; power forward Leron Black is sidelined after returning too soon from his own knee injury. Only Lewis has a chance to play today and that would be a surprise, since it seems rather irresponsible to expose student-athletes from two schools to THE MUMPS. (THE MUMPS!)

While the Illini are shorthanded, they boast the two leading scorers in the conference in Kendrick Nunn and Malcolm Hill, both of whom have avoided the injury bug since Nunn returned from a thumb injury a month ago. Nunn is the pure scoring threat, a great spot-up shooter (42% 3P) who can also score with efficiency inside the arc (54% 2P). In the absence of Abrams, Hill has essentially taken on the role of point forward, and his unusual game is quite effective. Hill is a solid finisher at the rim, an excellent midrange shooter, and enough of a three-point threat to keep defenses honest; he's versatile enough to be on either end of a pick-and-roll. Slowing these two is Michigan's top defensive priority.

The offense runs through Hill in large part because there's not a healthy true point guard in the rotation if Lewis sits out. Freshman Jalen Coleman-Lands is Just A Shooter™ at the moment, albeit quite a good one: he's hitting 42% of his triples. The other starting guard, Jaylon Tate, is seldom used on offense—just a 13% usage and 8% shot rate—and when he takes a possession it usually doesn't go well; he's a woeful shooter with a turnover rate north of 30%.

Thorne's injury opened up an opportunity for redshirt freshman big Michael Finke, who's become the team's third scoring option. Finke isn't a traditional post; he's got low rebound rates, rarely blocks shots, and doesn't play with his back to the basket. He's a major threat in the high screen game, however, because he can finish on the roll (66% 2P) or pop out and sink a three (44% 3P).

The injuries have shortened the Illini bench, though we may see a seldom-used role player or two with Lewis presumably out. Freshman guard Aaron Jordan spends most of his time spotting up outside the arc and hits 36% of his threes. Junior big man Maverick Morgan is a career backup who's a decent post scorer but not a standout in any other aspect of his game.

THE RESUME

Illinois is 2-4 against KenPom top-100 teams and those two wins came against #95 Yale and #97 UAB. They've held tough against top competition but haven't been able to break through. Meanwhile, they opened the season with a bad loss (#143 North Florida) and had victory margins of only three and four points against #321 Chicago State and #340 Illinois-Chicago, respectively. It's not easy to figure out what you're going to get with this team; the injuries (and THE MUMPS) obviously don't help there.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

The Illini offense resembles a less explosive Michigan outfit. They take a lot of threes, hit them at a good rate (37%), rarely turn the ball over, and don't attack the glass. 

The defense is killing them. The Illini have the second-worst defensive efficiency in the Big Ten, behind Rutgers(!) and ahead of only Minnesota. Opponents have bombed them from the outside, making 39% of their threes on a high volume of attempts. Without a shot-blocking threat to speak of, they've also allowed opponents to make 51% of their twos.

THE KEYS

Attack the basket. Illinois' defense is awful and doesn't have anything approaching a true rim-protector. Michigan should be able to isolate Caris LeVert for buckets or run high screens for LeVert/Irvin/Walton and let them operate off the dribble; Illinois can only help so much with the threat of Duncan Robinson looming on the perimeter.

Nuke the high screen. The Illini have a very effective screen trio with Hill handling the ball, Finke screening, and Nunn spotting up. That can be tough to defend with three players, but Illinois is going to have an offensive non-factor out there in Jaylon Tate; hopefully Michigan can find a way to use his defender to help out on the more effective Illini scorers.

DON'T GET THE MUMPS. Those don't look fun.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 3.

The Hill/Nunn/Finke trio is going to be difficult for Michigan to stop, but Illinois is having so much trouble on the other end that the Wolverines should pull this out as long as they don't have an off night from beyond the arc.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Dylan goes in-depth on player performance from the non-conference portion of the schedule. MnB Q&A with The Champaign Room:

I think a huge part of Illinois’ 3PT defensive struggles stem from a lack of rim protection down low (281st in defensive block percentage, 241st in 2PT%). But, numbers aside, Michael Finke and Maverick Morgan aren’t exactly the most intimidating duo, either. As a result, the perimeter defenders are giving their assignments an extra foot or so of space in order to prevent them from driving to the basket. That doesn’t seem like much, but it surely accounts for at least some of the outrageously bad numbers we’ve seen. Another potential cause could be the inexperience of the freshmen wings since they’re still getting acclimated to defensive expectations.

And to answer your last question, I don’t think Illinois has any chance at slowing down the Wolverines’ three-point barrage. They should just focus on production at the other end of the floor since that’s their best shot at staying in the game.

Illini fan optimism isn't running high.