Preview: Youngstown State

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: This week in bizarre, surprisingly sad mascot histories.

THE US

In a pleasant change, Michigan probably won't need to reconfigure their lineup from Tuesday's win over Northern Kentucky. For those who missed it, that starting lineup was Derrick Walton, Caris LeVert, Duncan Robinson, Zak Irvin, and Ricky Doyle; Mark Donnal and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman were the two primary backups as John Beilein made a concerted effort to whittle down the rotation before Big Ten play begins.

As has been the case for the past couple games, the intrigue tomorrow will come from how Beilein handles the rotation. Aubrey Dawkins, Moritz Wagner, and Kam Chatman played a combined eight minutes on Tuesday; I'd assume at least one gets a more prominent role—a seven-man rotation is a little light—and the best guess is Dawkins and Wagner see a slight uptick in minutes:

Beilein on rotation: NKU was running a motion that was confusing to Moe. Dawkins saw minutes drop b/c Robinson was "on fire."

— Brendan F. Quinn (@BFQuinn) December 18, 2015

DJ Wilson is back at practice but isn't yet going full-court, so he'll remain out tonight.

THE RESUME

Youngstown State has lost to every team they've played within KenPom's top 280 teams; they have three wins against the dregs of D-I and two more against Thiel and Geneva, which... are not D-I. They haven't played an opponent that's comparable to Michigan; their only top-100 foe was #3 Purdue, which they lost to 95-64 last weekend.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE THEM

6'10", 240-pound forward Bobby Hain is the highest-usage player on YSU and one of their most effective scorers, shooting 53% on two-pointers and 72% from the line, and he's also a decent passer from the post. He attempts to stretch the floor a bit, but has hit only 4/18 three-pointers on the year. He's a solid, not great, rebounder, and not much of a rim protector.

Oddly enough, the team's best rim protector is 6'7", 205-pound sophomore Sidney Umede, who's listed as YSU's starting center despite the significant size discrepancy between him and Hain. Umede isn't much of a scorer, shooting 45% on exclusively two-point attempts, but his seven blocks on the year is tops on the team. While he doesn't make a huge impact on the defensive boards, he's a decent offensive rebounder.

Rounding out the starting frontcout is 6'7" forward Matt Donlan, a Just A Shooter™ type hitting 43% of his triples. While he doesn't venture inside the arc often—about two-thirds of his attempts come from downtown—he hits 50% of his twos, as well.

Seven-footer Jordan Kaufman comes off the bench and plays about half the available minutes to give YSU a legit two-big look; his availability is uncertain after he was suspended for their last game. If he goes, he's their best rebounder on both ends, a decent post scorer, and an awful free-throw shooter.

Point guard Francisco Santiago is a wisp of a man—listed at 6'1", 160—with subpar efficiency; he leads the team in both assists and turnovers, and has just a 44.9 eFG%. He's flanked in the starting backcourt by Brett Frantz, a very low-usage option who's taken 28 of his 38 shots from three-point range and made only eight of them. Leading scorer Cameron Morse comes off the bench for reasons that are entirely unclear to me. He's posting shooting splits of 45/40/84 with high usage and a solid free-throw rate, boasts YSU's second-best assist:turnover ratio, and has the 31st-best steal rate in the country. For reasons beyond my comprehension, he only plays 27 minutes a game.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

The Penguins have an average offense that doesn't do anything particuarly well outside of not coughing up the ball, which helps somewhat offset middle-of-the-pack shooting numbers, bad offensive rebounding, and a complete inability to get to the line. Their offense is statistically quite similar to Michigan's, only if the Wolverines were an average shooting team instead of top-15 nationally—basically, most of the bad parts of Michigan's offense without a lot of the good.

Their defense, meanwhile, has been disastrous: 312th nationally in efficiency. Opponents shoot 52% on twos and 35% on a very high volume of three-point attempts. YSU lacks the shot-blocking to deter opponents from attacking the paint even though they're one of the taller teams in the country. They also throw in some zone, which should excite Duncan Robinson.

THE KEYS

Continue refining the rotation. I'd be very surprised if Aubrey Dawkins and Moe Wagner drop out of the rotation entirely, so tonight should be about continuing to find the right balance of minutes and how best to utilize the bench. Dawkins' minutes are dependent on how well Robinson is shooting, so that's largely out of his hands, but Wagner should see more time to get some minutes in against a team with some viable post players.

Contain Morse. It's weird to key on an opponent's bench guy, but it's weirder that YSU brings Cameron Morse off the bench. He should draw Derrick Walton and MAAR and give them a solid test; it'd be encouraging to see those two shut him down.

Hit your shots. The Penguins allow three-point attempts on 40% of opponent shots, a rate that ranks 300th nationally; considering the rate shots have fallen against them, they're giving up a good deal of open looks, too. Michigan should be able to move the ball around—61% of YSU oppponent baskets are assisted, an extremely high rate—and take what's available to great effect.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 19.

Michigan is not ranked among the bottom 70 teams in the country, and therefore should handle YSU easily.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Informative and interesting blog from KenPom on the statistics that best predict future shooting percentages:

As mentioned last week, at this point in the season an offense’s 2-point percentage is about as useful as its 3-point percentage in predicting how well it will shoot 3’s going forward. As the season continues, a team’s 3-point percentage history continues to become a more useful predictor. Still, even later in the season, 2-point percentage and free-throw percentage combined are about as good as predicting 3-point percentage as 3-point percentage itself.

Now, you won’t hear anybody say, “Hey look at those great 2-point and free-throw numbers. This team can really shoot it from the outside.” But if you really care about whether a team is a good outside shooting team, then that should be a consideration. Especially early in the season, but even late in the season, too.

The whole post, as well as the Villanova-centric post that inspired it, is well worth your time.