There are very few fanbases that act like Michigan's when it comes to bowls. This year's Citrus allotment sold out before a lot of season ticket holders realized they were on sale, and the secondary market launched at double the list price.
This is hardly Michigan's first Florida rodeo, and hardly the resellers' first Michigan vs. the local Gators rodeo. As such the secondary market remains flooded with big swaths of 10 seats together, all priced over face of course. I asked Ralph Garcia at TiqIQ how these usually play out:
On a historic Michigan beat-- the Outback Bowl from 1/1/13 seems to be the most similar game. The game saw ticket prices slowly increase from 12/8 to 12/16 and then remained pretty much flat from the 17th to 20th. Approx 10 days out is when things get interesting, as a lot of people unloaded at lower prices. For that particular game, the cheapest tickets available occurred on 12/20/12 while 48 hours before marked the next lowest point.
Last year's Minnesota/Missouri New Years Day matchup in the Citrus Bowl had pretty consistent ticket prices from the 8th on, until a free fall starting on the 30th.
The free fall seems to happen only for the good tickets, and will probably function differently since Florida is basically at home, so the final drop-off can't be so severe—like if tickets start getting below face the Gator fans in Gainesville or wherever will just buy them.
Here's what Ralph suggested vis a vis strategy (this was as of 5:49 p.m last night):
We've seen about 2,000 extra tickets hit the market in the past 96 hours, resulting in the drop of asking price. If quantity stays up, prices should continue to fall. As a seller, it's important to price competitively as there's now plenty of similar tickets for sale. Being $5 cheaper than another seat in that section could make the difference as buyers are sorting through the selections.
As a buyer, if you're willing to sweat it out, 48 hours out before gametime is when brokers entering panic mode. That's the best bet for some Lower Level or Premium seats at discounted prices. However if you're just looking to get in the door with cheapest seats possible, next week should mark the lowest point. Again, as a buyer keep an eye out for the quantity of tickets available. Large chunks of tickets on the market could mean empty seats at the game and effectively a free upgrade.
Short version: buy nice seats on December 30 or 31 or the day of the game, but if you just need one ticket to get in the door, get that before Christmas.
[EDIT] People in the comments say they've had no trouble getting way below face the day of the game for even the Rose Bowl vs. USC. If that's your strategy I suggest keeping an eye on those big blocks of tickets. If there are 8 together all over the place come December 29, those tickets ought to be circulating in Orlando by Jan 1.
[After the jump: get to know the changes at the Citrus Bowl]
YESTERDAY'S TRADING:
The Game took a dip on the day of the game, when you could get 1 ticket for $100 pretty easily and a pair from someone outside the stadium for $120. I got a Section 2 ticket for $100 from a family member who was invited up to a box. So hey, I called it right for once!
SEATING CHART CLASS 
(click for big)
And the quick-guide for this stadium:
100 Tier: Lower bowl seating. They are lettered from A (front row) to Z, then AA to EE. Right now these are going for about $400 at the 50 yard line, $170for the endzone, and $215 for the corner.
"P" Tier: This is the new Plaza Deck that opened last year. Note if you're sitting in a "P" seat it's like the old 2nd deck except you have to go up about 12 stairs to get to the section. They go from A to X, but for most of the stadium Row D is the first row of the P tier. Row N and above will probably be in the shade—once you're near the top your view is obscured a bit. Obvious bulk resellers are trying to get $500 for the 50, but the corner and endzone is priced like the lower bowl.
200 Tier This is only one the sideline—the wings will be 227, 241, 201, and 215. Again, front row is A and it goes up to HH. There are groups still together for like $120.
50 yard line is 108 (and going up, P8 and 208) and 134 (P34, 234). So sideline will be any section number that's +/- three of 8 or 34.
CHEAP TIP
Here's a soft spot in the market. It's 10 minutes to gametime. There are still unsold tickets on all the ticket sites, and they're starting to free fall since the number of people who can actually get to these tickets is now down to a bare handful. This is a thing you can exploit but you need a few things to be in your favor:
- You're gonna need some internet of some kind—your 4G on gameday probably isn't reliable.
- The venue has to be accepting smartphone tickets OR
- You gotta be able to print those tickets somewhere.
For 3, scout out a nearby hotel or business center (e.g. FedEx), or maybe a friend (or in my case, cousin) who lives in the area.
No, the Citrus Bowl doesn't take smartphone tickets yet. I called and asked.
BEST DEAL RIGHT NOW (that I can find on the sponsor's site because let's support people who support us okay?)
They're on the 20 yard line, and Row V is just over half-way up.