THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
Michigan (7-3) vs Northern Kentucky (2-5) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Crisler Center Ann Arbor, Michigan |
| WHEN | 7 pm ET, Tuesday |
| LINE | Michigan -18 (KenPom) |
| TV |
BTN PBP: Dave Revsine Analyst: Stephen Bardo |
Right: Victor E. Viking follows the Golden Rule of Twitter: Never Tweet. [Photo]
THE US
Derrick Walton is expected to return to the court tonight, though it's unclear if he'll start or come off the bench. His minutes will probably be limited either way against another overmatched opponent. DJ Wilson, meanwhile, is out tonight with a similar injury to Walton's and might not get back on the court for another week or two.
THE RESUME
Northern Kentucky is a step up in competition from Delaware State, but it's all relative: they're still only 253rd on KenPom and boast only one D-I victory, that over #245 Norfolk State at home. They've lost on the road to two teams ranked in the 300s; their most impressive game was a 12-point loss at Xavier that was never particularly close.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE THEM
NKU has three players who dominate the ball; only one of them breaks triple-digits in ORating. That would be 6'6", 245-pound post Jalen Billups—a basketball name if there ever was one—who's making 65% of his attempts a season after posting a 70% mark (third nationally). Despite his stature, he's a true post threat, making a significant impact on the boards on both ends and posting a top-50 block rate. Billups only plays about half the team's minutes, however, because of his 7.1 fouls per 40 minutes—he's committed three or more in every game this season.
Lavone Holland runs the point and his statistical profile resembles that of a very poor man's Derrick Walton with much higher usage. Holland posts the team's highest rates for assists and defensive rebounding, but his 28 turnovers nearly cancel out his 34 assists, and he's posting a 46/26/42 shooting split. Two-guard Tyler White also takes up a large number of possessions; he attempts more threes than twos and makes them at just a 28% clip, and he's nearly as turnover-prone as Holland, but he salvages his efficiency somewhat by getting to the line at a decent rate—he's 19/22 on free throws.
6'7" wing Cole Murray gets the Just A Shooter™ designation. He's 13/26 on threes this season, 4/11 on twos, and hardly makes a dent in any other statistical category. Sophomore Jordan Garnett rounds out the starting lineup as the nominal four. He almost never takes shots—his shot rate is below 10, which is remarkable—and when he does they're presumably of the can't-miss variety, as he's hit 9/13 twos this season.
Only two bench players get over a quarter of the team's minutes. Wing Deontae Cole, the sixth man, almost exclusively takes threes; he's made 6/20 this season. 6'7", 235-pound senior Jake Giesler is the next man in at center when Billups gets into foul trouble or needs a breather; he has a strikingly similar statistical profile as Billups, right down to the very high foul rate.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Small sample size caveats apply.
The Norse post decent shooting numbers on both ends of the floor, a product of their effectiveness inside the arc; otherwise, there's little they do well. While NKU is relatively efficient at two-point shooting, they're not a good outside shooting team (32% 3P), and all of their non-shooting stats are ugly—they turn the ball over a ton, don't hit the boards, and rarely get to the line.
The matchup at the other end could get a little interesting. NKU defends the two quite well—even Xavier hit only 43% inside the arc against them—and their glaring weaknesses, rebounding and fouling, aren't areas Michigan normally exploits. The Wolverines may just wear them down with outside shooting and sheer number of possessions—the Norse don't force many turnovers—but if the three-ball isn't falling, this game could be ugly, even if it's not particularly close.
THE KEYS
Collapse into the paint. If NKU's guards/wings want to try to out-shoot Michigan's, that should be just fine by Michigan. The Wolverines can safely focus their defensive effort on denying entry to the post, doubling Billups when he gets the ball, and waiting for the torrent of missed shots and turnovers when they're successful at either of those things.
Run, run, run. The Norse turn the ball over on nearly a quarter of their possessions. While the Norse defense isn't exactly good, they defend the two pretty well, so getting some easy transition points could help take the pressure off Michigan early while they're looking to get into a rhythm in the halfcourt.
Get in a rhythm, Zak Irvin. While Irvin's offensive game has largely rounded into form, he's struggling mightily to hit outside shots. Getting shot timing and form to return after a back injury is a tricky process; here's hoping we see some progress tonight.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 18.
Even if Michigan is struggling offensively, NKU doesn't have the firepower to keep up unless they turn in a dominant performance in the post. While that sounds foreboding, Billups has been rendered ineffective by the two decent teams (Xavier and West Virginia) he's faced this season.