Preview: SMU

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Larry Brown, champion of "the right way," rocking on. [Fuller]

THE US

Derrick Walton's status is still very much up in the air due to his ankle injury. At yesterday's presser, John Beilein said he's going to be careful handling Walton's return:

Beilein didn’t know on Monday if Walton would play, but noted that he learned his lesson last season of rushing Walton back from injury.

“If he does try and play and he can’t do it, he’s got to come out,” Beilein said. “It’s a very tender area of your body, and you also want to make sure that you don’t hurt him for down the road. An ankle injury will plague you all year long if you don’t allow it to heal.”

That doesn't make it sound like Walton will play tonight, let alone be a full go.

THE LAST TIME

This is the second game of a home-and-home after the Wolverines took on SMU at Crisler last December. Coming off three straight losses, Michigan hung tight through most of the game, but poor shooting (8/36 3P) doomed them to an eventual 62-51 loss after a late Mustang run went unanswered.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

SMU is one of the last remaining undefeated teams in the country; their forgiving schedule has played a role in that. The Mustangs haven't faced a top-80 KenPom team this season; their two best wins came by two points at home over #86 Yale and five points at #101 TCU.

THE THEM

SMU is led by a strong frontcourt and point guard Nic Moore, whom you may remember scoring 17 points on ten shot equivalants in last year's matchup. Moore is especially dangerous on the perimeter, where he's capable of scoring off the dribble or as a spot-up shooter; while he's not a great finisher inside the arc, he makes up for that with a propensity for drawing fouls.

The rest of the backcourt rotation is comprised of a combination of efficient scorers and useful utility players. Keith Frazier and Shake Milton fall into the former category; both are shooting well inside and outside the arc—Frazier handles a higher workload while Milton is shooting unsustainably well in a minor role. Sterling Brown and Jarrey Foster are in the latter category; Brown is a solid defender who rebounds really well on that end, while Foster is one of four Mustangs ranked in the top 250 players in offensive rebounding rate—both do most of their scoring damage near the hoop and at the line.

Michigan's bigs will get all they can handle in the form of burly forward Markus Kennedy, who's a force in the post. Kennedy hits the glass, has a top-100 block rate, and shoots 60% from the field. While he's only attempted ten free-throws this year, he usually draws a high number of fouls, too. Limiting his impact will be M's top priority.

Forwards Ben Moore and Jordan Tolbert also make significant contributions in the rebounding department, finish around the basket at a solid rate, and block their fair share of shots. Tolbert is posting an insane 20.9 OReb%, good for fourth in the country. SMU is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, especially on offense.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

This is a "live by the three, die by the three" game for Michigan. SMU blocks nearly 15% of opponent two-point attempts and their opponents are shooting 42% from two. Their foes take 43% of their shots from beyond the arc, one of the highest rates in the country; while that's at least in part a reflection of teams avoiding SMU's interior defense, it's also a sign that open looks should be there for the taking. The Mustangs don't allow much else—they rebound well and don't foul often—so generating open perimeter looks will be Michigan's key to hanging in this.

On the other end, Michigan has to find a way to avoid being overwhelmed in the paint and on the glass. Unfortunately, packing down inside isn't the answer; SMU is ninth in the country, one spot behind Michigan, in three-point percentage. The only glaring weakness of the Mustangs offense is a 67.2% mark from the free-throw line, and they're not particularly dependent on drawing fouls to score.

THE KEYS

Limit second chances. Once again, Michigan is going to need an all-hands-on-deck effort on the defensive boards against a bigger team with good rebounders pretty much across the lineup. What's especially worrisome is there isn't one person the Wolverines must focus on keeping off the glass; SMU can throw as many as four players on the court at once who are nationally ranked offensive rebounders. Derrick Walton's potential absence may hurt in this regard more than anywhere else.

Hit your threes. Once again, a simple "well, duh" key. As outlined above, it's going to be tough to consistently score inside the arc against SMU. Last year Michigan had a hard time even attempting two-pointers, taking 16 of them while chucking 36 threes. One would hope there isn't as large a disparity this time around, but the Wolverines are still going to have to lean heavily on their outside scoring. Duncan Robinson needs to be something less than a disaster on defense so Beilein can give him plenty of minutes; his shooting is going to be needed tonight.

Keep track of shooters. SMU has that dangerous combination of a strong interior presence and good outside shooters. In fact, big man Markus Kennedy—not point guard Nic Young—leads the team in assist rate, as he's adept at finding open shooters when he's doubled in the post. Michigan has been below-average at guarding the three; too often the perimeter defenders blow rotations, get caught up on screens, or simply drift away and leave too much space for an open triple. If the guard and wings don't tighten it up, Young, Frazier, and Milton will make them pay.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

SMU by 5.

It's going to take a remarkable effort from the wings on both ends for Michigan to pull the upset. The matchup down low is bad, especially if Ricky Doyle or Moe Wagner get into foul trouble, and the Mustangs have the outside shooting to offset a lot of what Michigan can do offensively. A great shooting night can get Michigan a win; anything less and it's hard to see them overcoming SMU's advantage on the interior, especially on the road.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview.