Preview: Houston Baptist

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Michigan's offensive prowess was downright terrifying the last time these two teams met. [Fuller]

THE US

You can breathe a little easier; X-rays on Derrick Walton's ankle, which he turned in nasty-looking fashion against NC State, came back negative. He's going to miss some time with a sprain. How much is uncertain:

"So it's a sprain," Beilein said on his weekly radio show on Wednesday night. "It's a mild sprain."

Shortly thereafter, Beilein added, "He sprained his ankle badly — I don't know what type of grade it would be, but it's sprained and we do not know when he'll be back.

"Hopefully it's not before too long."

Walton's absence shouldn't be an issue against Houston Baptist; it'd hurt if he couldn't give it a go next Tuesday at SMU. Based on Beilein calling it both a "mild" and "badly" sprained ankle in the span of a few minutes, the timeline for a return is unclear. Today, Beilein said they'll "wait and see" if Walton can play tomorrow; my guess is they won't feel the need to push Walton against a very overmatched opponent.

THE LAST TIME

Michigan played Houston Baptist two years ago. If you think the KenPom line—Michigan is favored by 23—is a little extreme, it's nothing compared to the margin from the 2013-14 matchup, which the Wolverines won 107-53 while scoring a nearly unfathomable 1.62 points per possession. Most importantly, Andrew Dakich hit a three:

Pew pew.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

KenPom ranks Houston Baptist 324th out of 351 D-I teams; their only win against D-I competition this season came at home by four points against #276 Rice. Any opponent with half a pulse has beaten them handily. Michigan is easily the highest-ranked team they'll have faced this season.

THE THEM

As you've presumably gathered, the Huskies aren't very good. Eight different players have started games for Houston Baptist so far this season. Their latest addition to the starting lineup was wing Reveal Chukwujekwu, who went 3/3 from the field in the win over Rice—prior to that game he'd gone 6/27. Chukwujekwu does rebound quite well, especially on the offensive glass, so when his shot is falling he can be an effective player.

The main threat to a Michigan defense that will probably lack Derrick Walton is lead guard Anthony Odunsi, who makes up for a lack of shooting range by getting to the hoop, drawing a ton of fouls—nine(!) per 40 minutes—and converting from the line at an 80% clip. He's a solid finisher inside the arc, so Michigan's main defensive focus will be to keep him contained to the perimeter. Jourdan Stickler rounds out the starting backcourt; he's the team's primary outside shooting threat (6/16 3P) but hasn't done well otherwise (3/18 2P).

Stretch four Colter Lasher has really struggled with his shot; since he doesn't add much else to the box score, his O-Rating is languishing at 88.0 right now. He's joined in the frontcourt by massive center Josh Ibarra, who's a true rebounding/finishing/shot-blocking threat. Ibarra has a tough time avoiding fouls (7.9/40 mins), which is especially troublesome since his primary backup, 6'9" junior Cody Stetler, is even worse in that regard (11.7/40).

The backcourt bench players are either below-average at shooting, turnover-prone, or both.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Small sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

The Huskies have been an awful shooting team—44% from two, 28% from three—to the point where a high free-throw rate and solid shooting from the line barely edges their offensive efficiency above 300th nationally. Also not helping: they cough up the ball on a regular basis and don't crash the glass hard.

The defense is even worse statistically than the offense: 330th nationally in efficiency. Opponents get whatever they want inside (55% 2P) and still get plenty of opportunities from the outside that they've knocked down at a solid rate (36% 3P). There's not a single defensive category in which this team even cracks the D-I average.

THE KEYS

Get the bigs in foul trouble. I'm confident Michigan can handle a slashing guard with no three-point shot to speak of after facing similar lead guards in each of their last two games (Isaiah Taylor for Texas and Cat Barber for NC State); while those two got their points, Anthony Odunsi isn't on their level, and the secondary pieces for the last two opponents didn't do a much at all. Center Josh Ibarra, meanwhile, might be a load to handle inside; if Michigan can get him off track early with fouls, they should be able to dominate an otherwise much smaller opponent. With little outside shooting on Houston Baptist, M can also collapse down on Ibarra when he's on the floor.

Tighten up rotations. Against a team that shouldn't be a major threat, John Beilein can afford to have his players work through their issues on defense instead of yanking them off the court. Aubrey Dawkins and Duncan Robinson, in particular, are two guys who could really use some work on that end. Neither of those two is going to be a plus defender this season, but if they can simply eliminate many of their mental errors—failing to notice screens and drifting away from corner shooters, especially—that'll be a good sign going forward.

Win The Game. Losing this would be worse than NJIT, so let's not do that.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 23.

This offense against one of the country's worst defenses should be fun.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview. Quinn on Wagner:

He cracked, smiled, and continued, "No, of course, I've always kind of had that with me as a player. I know what he's talking about and we're working on that. Sometimes it's like, I watch video of myself and I'm asking myself, 'What the hell are you doing?'"

Lowering his voice, Wagner added, "Excuse my language."

Also contains a handy pronunciation guide: "Moe-vitz Vaagnur."