Wagner is the rare C that can attack off the dribble. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]
After playing all of 22 minutes through Michigan's first four games, freshman center Moe Wagner poured in 34 points on 21 shot equivalents over the last three contests—incidentally, all Michigan wins. He's gone from the #4 center to the #2 center in the span of a week; with how he's playing on offense, John Beilein may have no choice but to start him before long.
That's because Wagner's offensive skill level is leaps and bounds better than any other center on the roster in a way that opens up the entire offense. That impact was on full display last night against NC State.
Let's start with a look at his dunk; Wagner holds the ball at the top of the key, Michigan runs action like he's going to hand it off to Caris LeVert, and instead he goes off the dribble to posterize a guy:
Wagner's understanding of how the defense will react to this is so impressive for a freshman. He goes to the hoop the moment his defender, Beejay Anya, takes a false step towards LeVert; he also seems acutely aware that the weakside defender took a step out of the paint—he doesn't hesitate to go for the dunk because of the room that provided him.
Speaking of room, check out the spacing a skilled center provides in a John Beilein offense:
With two very dangerous shooters on the other side of the floor and Wagner operating on the perimeter, five NC State defenders have a combined one foot in the paint. This is also quite helpful when running the pick-and-roll, and Wagner did a great job as the roll man last night.
[Hit THE JUMP to see Wagner's impressive instincts on the high screen.]
Slipping a screen takes anticipation and timing; Wagner seems to have that down, as he got two layups last night after showing a high screen before quickly diving to the hoop. While his first bucket, off a pass from Zak Irvin, featured his most difficult finish, his and-one layup in the second half was arguably his most impressive play on the night. With nobody playing inside for Michigan, NC State didn't have anyone inside to prevent Wagner slipping the screen for a layup:
A few things stand out on this one:
- Holy crap, that spacing.
- Wagner times the slip perfectly, squaring up and then diving to the hoop just before contact. Wagner's defender, Anya (#21), has already committed to the hard hedge at that point, and LeVert's defender is following LeVert and can't make a play on Wagner—even if he somehow recognized this, he'd be hard-pressed to do anything about it, and instead he has to rely on his weakside help.
- Wagner makes life easy on LeVert by facing him and providing a big target to hit. Part of the reason LeVert has so much room to fit in this pass is that...
- Wagner is once again very aware of the weakside help, so when he rolls to the lane he seals off the recovering defender. This opened up the passing lane, prevented the defender from providing any real resistence to the reverse layup—another thing Wagner has shown he can do quite well—and ultimately resulted in an and-one opportunity.
One more example also features Wagner's insticts around the basket.
With LeVert drawing a justifiable amount of attention on the perimeter, Wagner sees the open lane to the hoop and again gives the passer an easy target to hit. When Wagner gets the pass, he could easily try to go up and draw a foul on Anya, who's late to recover but still provides a serious shot-blocking threat; instead, Wagner seamlessly goes from a pump fake to a pivot and an uncontested layup.
Wagner still has plenty of work to do, especially on defense; he's not making a major impact on the boards, he has his fair share of freshman moments, and his elevated foul rate (6.6/40 mins) is going to put a hard cap on his minutes until he learns to better avoid those. He also turned the ball over twice last night trying to work in tight spaces off the dribble.
That said, none of Michigan's other centers are impact defenders, and Wagner's clear advantage in skill is going to separate him from the pack sooner or later. He's already in the same range as Ricky Doyle in field goal percentage (71% for Wagner, 67% for Doyle), and Wagner's turnover rate is less than half of Doyle's—I probably don't need to point out that Wagner has far superior hands.
Wagner's quick rise shouldn't end with him as the #2 center, even if his defensive shortcomings linger all year. Michigan is a team that's going to look to outgun their opponents. Wagner gives them the best chance of doing that, and by the end of the season the competition may not be particularly close.