Preview: NC State

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: "Mini mascot and cheerleader" circa 1970s.

THE STAKES

After the ACC won the first ten ACC/B1G Challenge titles, the Big Ten has won four of the last six, and the other two were ties. This year, however, KenPom says there's a high likelihood the ACC flips the challenge back in their favor:

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation using the current ratings and not surprisingly, the ACC is a heavy favorite to emerge victorious. There’s a 63% chance the ACC wins at least eight games and just an 18% chance the Big Ten wins at least eight.

There's a better chance of a 7-7 tie (19%) than an outright B1G win. Despite being on the road, Michigan has one of the more winnable games of the challenge, which stands at 1-1 after Wake Forest beat Rutgers and Minnesota took down Clemson yesterday.

From Michigan's perspective, tallying a road non-conference win over a decent opponent could be huge come March. If they can't pull it off tonight, they'll get one more chance when they go to SMU next week, but NC State is their best shot.

THE US

This should come as little surprise:

At Beilein's pre-NC State press conference. Beilein says that Wagner will be the second big off the bench right now (behind Doyle).

— Kelly Hall (@kellyhall20) November 30, 2015

After seeing how little Spike Albrecht has played so far this season, this may also be unsurprising, but it sure is disconcerting:

Michigan coach John Beilein said Monday that Albrecht, whose return from offseason surgery on both hips has not progressed as hoped, will no longer practice with the Wolverines, instead opting to use that time for continued rehabilitation.

"If we have a choice right now of two hours of therapy at one of the therapy centers here in Ann Arbor or two of practice, it's going to be two therapy — just to do whatever we can to get him ready," Beilein said.

Albrecht is still available to play "spot minutes"; he's clearly well short of 100% and has already ceded a lot of his playing time to Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

THE RESUME

The Wolfpack haven't looked great so far this season despite a forgiving schedule. Three of their four wins have come against teams ranked 190th or worse on KemPom; the other was a neutral-site OT victory over #89 LSU. NC State got walloped by #80 William & Mary at home in the season opener and dropped a close neutral-site game against #79 Arizona State. After opening the season ranked #41 on KemPom, they've dropped to #57. Michigan currently ranks 35th.

THE THEM

While Michigan is still whittling down their rotation from approximately all the players, NC State has a remarkably tight seven-man rotation; after their top seven, nobody on the roster has played more than seven total minutes this season.

Point guard Anthony "Cat" Barber almost never leaves the floor; he's played 235 of the team's 245 available minutes this season, which is rather astounding. While he's a crummy finisher and doesn't have much of an outside shot, Barber is still an efficient player because of a stellar assist:turnover ratio (40:14) and his ability to get to the line—where he's shooting 88%—with great frequency.

Wings Maverick Rowan and Caleb Martin are similar players in both size and style; both are listed at 6'7", 215, and both have attempted more threes than twos this season. In Martin's case that's been a positive; he's hitting 40% of his triples. Rowan, meanwhile, is a better finisher inside the arc but is knocking down only 33% of his three-pointers. NC State needs both to shoot anyway; nobody else on the roster has made a three this season. Barber (0/7) is the only other player to attempt more than two and he's only a 32% career three-point shooter.

Burly forward Adbul-Malik Abu is the Wolfpack's primary post presence. While he takes the highest percentage of the team's shots when he's on the floor, he's only shooting 47%; his high free-throw rate only helps so much because of his 50% mark from the line. He does provide solid rebounding, and he's helped out there by the duo of Lennard Freeman and Beejay Anya, two low-usage bigs who focus most of their energy on the glass. Both draw a bunch of fouls and are terrible free-throw shooters; Freeman is better at avoiding fouls on the other end, while Anya is a better scorer and a very impactful shot-blocker.

Backup wing Cody Martin plays about half the available minutes; he's a solid offensive rebounder who generates much of his offense on putbacks.

THE TEMPO-FREE

Tiny sample size caveats apply.

Four Factors explanation

NC State is basically better-shooting Texas, right down to using two bigs and relying heavily on a slashing point guard who can't shoot. A side-by-side look at the Wolfpack and the Longhorns confirms this; NC State is on the left, Texas is on the right:

Both block a lot of shots and force teams to rely on outside shooting; both have been bad at defending those outside shots.

On the other side, NC State is also a lot like Texas, relying heavily on putback opportunities and free throws to keep the offense afloat. Michigan did well on the glass against the Longhorns but caught a break when they went 8/19 from the line; the good news is NC State isn't a good free-throw shooting team outside of Barber.

THE KEYS

Contain Cat Barber. Over half of Barber's team-leading 126 points have come at the free-throw line. Whether it's by a big performance from Walton/MAAR or a shift to even more zone defense—not a bad plan given NC State's lack of outside shooting—Michigan must find a way to keep him away from the hoops, or at least contest his drives without hacking a lot. While Barber is going to get his points, they can't come too easily; if he has to settle for jump shots Michigan is in business.

Hit your threes. I might leave this as a key for the rest of the season given the state of the defense, but it's especially big in a game that should look a whole lot like the last one. Michigan took as many threes as twos against Texas and the distribution of shots should be similar tonight. It's going to be tough sledding inside the arc, so continuing to generate and make open looks from the perimeter will be the key to the game on the offensive side.

Help the bigs on the boards. Oh, look, another key from the Texas game. Michigan offset their advantage up front by getting major contributions on the boards from the guards/wins; Derrick Walton had five defensive boards and LeVert/Irvin combined for five more. NC State has three true bigs who can all make a major impact on the glass; M's bigs are going to need a similar level of help.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

NC State by 1.

Take the Texas game from a neutral site to a road game, account for Michigan probably not shooting 56% on threes again or their opponents shooting 42% from the line, and yeah, this projection feels right.

ELSEWHERE

UMHoops preview. Maize n Brew preview.