THE ESSENTIALS
| WHAT |
Michigan (3-2) vs Texas (2-2) |
|---|---|
| WHERE |
Imperial Arena, Paradise Island, Bahamas |
| WHEN | 7 pm ET, Friday |
| LINE | Michigan -1 (KenPom) |
| TV |
AXS TV PBP: Kenny Rice Analyst: Seth Davis |
Right: Last time was fun.
HOW TO WATCH
One last time, here's how to find AXS TV, a channel you'll probably never watch again. For those in the area, here's a handy guide for A2/Detroit/GR provided by U-M Media Relations:
- AT&T U-verse Ch. 1106
- Charter Ch. 820 (also Ch. 770 in Detroit)
- Comcast Ch. 382
- DirecTV Ch. 340
- DISH Ch. 167
- Wyandotte Cable TV Ch. 179
For the rest of you, AXS TV has a channel finder on their site.
THE STAKES
Fifth place in the Battle 4 Atlantis. Try to contain your excitement.
THE LINEUP CARD
Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.
| Pos. | # | Name | Yr. | Ht./Wt. | %Min | %Poss | SIBMIHHAT | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 1 | Isaiah Taylor | Jr. | 6'3, 185 | 72 | 28 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Same high-volume, low-efficiency slasher he was in '14. Solid passer now. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 3 | Javan Felix | Sr. | 5'11, 205 | 43 | 16 | No | ||||||||||||
| Career 35% 3P shooter is Texas' top outside shooting threat. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 2 | Demarcus Holland | Sr. | 6'3, 190 | 64 | 12 | Kinda? | ||||||||||||
| Tiny usage. 0/7 on threes this year; was at 42% last year and 29% the year prior. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 21 | Connor Lammert | Sr. | 6'10, 235 | 60 | 11 | Kinda? | ||||||||||||
| Tiny usage. Solid rebounder. Career 30% 3P shooter is 6/12 this season. | |||||||||||||||||||
| C | 55 | Cameron Ridley | Sr. | 6'10. 290 | 57 | 27 | Very | ||||||||||||
| Post-up/rebounding/shot-blocking force limited by fouls, FT shooting, turnovers. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 10 | Eric Davis Jr. | Fr. | 6'2, 185 | 55 | 22 | Not really | ||||||||||||
| Freshman provides scoring spark off bench; can hit three or get to the hoop. | |||||||||||||||||||
| G | 12 | Kerwin Roach Jr. | Fr. | 6'4, 170 | 43 | 24 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| Posting woeful 66.7 ORtg due to 6/21 shooting, 11 turnovers. | |||||||||||||||||||
| F | 0 | Tevin Mack | Fr. | 6'6, 210 | 38 | 26 | Yes | ||||||||||||
| 0/14 2P, 2/14 3P, edges out Roach in ORtg b/c he turns it over less. | |||||||||||||||||||
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]
THE RESUME
Oddly enough, Texas has played #102 Washington twice, losing to them by six in the season-opener in China before getting their revenge with a 12-point victory yesterday. They lost in the B4A quarterfinals to #19 Texas A&M, which since went on to knock off #7 Gonzaga. The other Longhorn victory came at home against #231 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.
THE THEM
While several Longhorns remain from the squad Michigan blew out in the NCAA Tournament two seasons ago, this year's iteration is playing a different style under former VCU coach Shaka Smart, best-known for his up-tempo, high-pressure tactics.
You may remember the backcourt duo of Isaiah Taylor and Javan Felix. Taylor is the high-usage focal point of the offense despite shooting 40% from two and 27% from three during his career; his pet shot is a pull-up floater in the lane after using his tremendous quickness to get a step on his defender. While the numbers from the field are ugly, Taylor salvages his overall efficiency by getting to the line a lot, hitting his free throws, and posting an excellent assist:turnover ratio. Felix, meanwhile, is mostly a designated gunner who's a career 35% three-point shooter.
Those two are joined in the starting lineup by senior Demarcus Holland, a very low-usage option whose potential impact is tough to pin down. He's a threes-or-layups guy who's not a good finisher at the rim—though he's decent at drawing contact—and his outside shot comes and goes; he hit 29% of his threes as a sophomore, 42% as a junior, and is 0/6 to start this season. Freshman Eric Davis gives the Longhons a solid inside/outside scoring option off the bench; the other freshman two bench wings, Kerwin Roach and Tevin Mack, are off to woeful starts from the field, with Roach compounding that issue by committing a bunch of turnovers. Outside of Felix and Davis, Texas really lacks shooting.
Connor Lammert, another holdover from two years ago, is a career 30% three-point shooter who's become more a stretch four under Smart, and thus far the results have been positive; he's hit 6/12 threes this season while still making an impact on the offensive boards. While Lammert's usage is minuscule, he could chip in an efficient double-figure performance if Michigan's perimeter defenders aren't more vigilant about preventing open shooters.
The man with the potential to break this game open is 6'10", 290-pound center Cameron Ridley, who struggled mightily against Jordan Morgan two years ago. Michigan no longer has Jordan Morgan or even a close facscimile, which you may have noticed by now. Ridley puts up huge rebounding and shot-blocking numbers, hits nearly 70% of his shots, and draws a ton of fouls. Michigan's best bet at slowing Ridley is to use those 20 available fouls at center to put the career 55% free-throw shooter on the line, then hope he gets into foul trouble—Ridley's fouled out of two games this season and committed at least three in his two other contests. He's also turnover-prone; we'll see if M's centers can take advantage.
THE TEMPO-FREE
Tiny sample size caveats apply.
Texas is a terrible shooting team, hitting 39% of their twos and 33% of their threes, but they manage to post a decent offensive efficiency by generating a ton of second chances and drawing an absurd number of fouls. Their rebounding will be a significant advantage; their reliance on fouls could go either way against a Michigan squad that's still not committing many despite their issues in the middle.
Michigan doesn't seem cut out to exploit Texas' main defensive weaknesses: surprisingly terrible rebouding and a propensity for hacking. With the Longhons holding opponents below 40% on two-pointers, the Wolverines may have to live or die by the three.
THE KEYS
Send everyone to the boards. Texas will look to overwhelm Michigan inside, and while that's a bad matchup for M's centers, the Longhorns' lack of shooting should allow the Wolverines to send a lot of help. Perimeter defenders should be able to crash down on Ridley when he gets post touches, which could result in some turnovers. More importantly, everyone needs to be ready to hit the boards to prevent second-chance opportunities; if Texas gets the rebound and generates an open outside shot, so be it—they're far more likely to hit a steady stream of layups if M leaves the rebounding up to the big men.
Hit shots. This worked yesterday and legitimately applies again, so let's stick with it. With Ridley roaming the paint, M needs to keep the three-point momentum going from the Charlotte game.
Run when you can. Michigan's past matchups with high-tempo, pressing teams—including a certain tourney game against a Shaka Smart VCU squad—have gone quite well in large part because the Wolverines have avoided turnovers and been able to get out in transition. Texas is going to miss their fair share of shots; if Michigan can generate some easy buckets on the break, that'd help offset some expected difficulties in the half-court.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 1.
If the Wolverines don't get overwhelmed in the paint, they've got both a size and skill advantage with the guards/wings. Michigan should generate open looks from the perimeter; they just have to make them.