Upon Further Review 2015: Defense vs Indiana

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FORMATION NOTES: When I say "nickel under" I do mean a 4-3 under with nickel personnel.

Bolden is standing up on the LOS as the SAM with Hill filling in as a second ILB. Wilson is off the screen as a very deep S as per usual.

M occasionally tucked a linebacker inside one of their DEs, which is a "bear" front:

Nickel buck denotes the buck LB right behind the nose. This was rare.

Ross got in as a buck and stood up and I'm just pretending he's a DE, okay?  That's what I'm pretending.

PERSONNEL NOTES: Michigan spent almost the entire game in a nickel aside from some goal line sets and a few dime packages. With Glasgow out, Hurst started. Strobel was his backup at first. He got two or three stretches of playing time and did poorly. Late Michigan started playing Henry at nose a lot. There was palpable frustration with Hurst on stretch plays. Godin also returned, though he had a very bad day.

Bolden/Morgan at LB except for two drives with Gedeon replacing Bolden and one with Gedeon replacing Morgan.

The secondary saw Thomas start over Hill again. When Thomas was hurt in the first quarter Hill got the bulk of the game. Clark and Stribling are still splitting time but it is increasingly clear that Clark has won the job.

[After THE JUMP: seriously, Kevin Wilson, I hate you]

Ack.

Yeah, Kevin Wilson can go straight to hell.

What even happened?

Lets go to the

chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart chart

did you just say chart 19 straight times

yes yes yes—

I hate you almost as much as Kevin Wilson.

So, 90 snaps, big amplitude, make sure you check the pressure metric:

So. LBs and DTs are discussed below. Before we get to that, the RPS number. Indiana got some stuff on tempo when Michigan couldn't align fast enough. To start each OT they called stretches to a trips side n which the playside end got edged with no help. I was frustrated with Michigan sitting back and taking it on the last drive; the TD was M badly misaligned.

If, on the other hand, you think giving up that TD was a tactical move take that RPS –3 and make it +3. Even so, Michigan had few answers tactically for what IU was doing. Not a great day for Durkin. Steve Sharik has some more details. Michigan is used to winning up front down a man and did not adjust once that was no longer the case.

So… that DL number. It's positive? WTF?

I haven't had to explain myself about the numbers in a bit, so: DL need to be positive to be average. In a normal length game I expect any particular DL to be +4 or so if he's on okay player. This was a very long game so that number might be 6 or 7 or 8. So when you put all the number together and come up with +5.5 that is a bad day. When the pressure metric is –9 that is a very bad day.

I'm considering putting the pressure minuses into the DL totals to provide a better picture in that one number. Do that and M is –19. Feel more accurate?

Well, what happened there? I mean, other than Glasgow.

Michigan's DTs got shredded for the most part. IU alternated outside and inside zone with some pin and pull stuff. Michigan was more or less okay against the latter two and horrendous against zone stretches. They were horrendous against the stretch largely because one of the DTs would get reached or chopped damn near every time.

When that happens, your linebackers are boned. Trust me, I broke down the Molk era: DTs getting reach blocked is doom for your run defense. Way too often in this game guys lined up a gap "behind" a DT ended up blocking them. When that happens the guy releasing to the second level has a terrific angle on a linebacker.

When the DTs don't get reached, the LB has the advantage and can flow free to the relevant gap. There is a crease here that is superficially similar to many of the successful run plays Michigan had, but because Henry is forcing the guard to block him instead of the center, Ben Gedeon is unimpeded and goes and hits Howard at the LOS.

This did not happen very often.

The same instincts that have served Michigan very well against everything except the stretch this year popped up a lot when Indiana tried to go straight ahead. Here Hurst blows his man in the backfield and Michigan crushes the first IU drive:

That happened a lot when Indiana tried to go straight ahead. Indiana only found limited success with other plays until late, when Michigan was dead tired. Those kept Michigan honest; the stretch was their bread and butter.

But that heavy vertical action leads to creases on the stretch:

While Hurst was still explosive and dangerous, Indiana exposed a major weakness in his game. He will spend the next two weeks trying to get a lot better at it, because OSU is going to run a ton of zone stretch after watching this tape. (Penn State? I'm not sure they want to try that given their OL.)

Later in the game everything kind of went to hell, but Michigan's inability to stop the stretch is what put those legs in a state of despair.

But the linebackers were terrible!

I've seen a bunch of this take in the aftermath of the game. I think they were basically what they've been all year in a much more difficult environment. Mike Spath put out an article citing Desmond Morgan for missing seven tackles that I think misses the point entirely. Morgan may have been unable to do more than get an arm on a passing Howard frequently, but when you get free releasing linemen with an angle to block you on damn near every play the quality of your play is more about mitigating the damage than making tackles. Morgan did a lot of that. And sometimes made tackles.

Indiana stopped cutting Morgan pretty quick and instead just blocked him straight up. Morgan frequently was asked to make tough plays against free releasers in a ton of space:

Maybe that's a missed tackle, too. It's a +2 in my book. Betting that that one time Michigan put five in the box with Strobel at NT and IU had two blockers for Morgan is filed as a missed tackle too.

I mean. What are you supposed to do there? You die. You fling yourself at the back in case, but you die. Or, if you're Joe Bolden, you passively run upfield of the block and quit running.

Morgan was very good at running up and plastering guys who released directly to him to force the ball back to other parts of the defense. This is thankless work, especially when one DT gets reached and the other is so irrelevant that two guys run past him—which is some sort of super ultra reach.

This was a heroic rearguard action for him.

Since this section will probably draw accusations of bias in favor of Morgan, who has been a fave-rave around these parts for a long time, let me remind you that he racked up a –12 against Minnesota two games ago. A number of the above plays did see Morgan come in for minuses even though I think they're brutally difficult plays to make, and he made up for it by tirelessly hitting people 60 pounds heavier than him in the face.

Meanwhile Bolden was a disaster. The difference in the two ILB's ability to take on blocks was brought into sharp relief by the faltering DL. Contrast any of the contact Morgan makes in the clips above with this:

Bolden gets and stays blocked way too much.

That probably went on Morgan's missed tackle count and is a great example of how a missed tackle is often a guy almost making a difficult play because someone else didn't do their job. (Note: sometimes I ding guys for going upfield of blocks when they don't make a play; Morgan got a minus half-point here but shooting this gap is the only way this gets to fourth down, so go for it.) If Bolden only missed two tackles to Morgan's seven it's because Bolden wasn't close enough to the play to even attempt a tackle very much.

Here's an example of that. Hurst gets reached. Free release to Morgan. He thumps the OL, forcing the back him to cut behind that dude while still in the backfield. Bolden runs around a block and then doesn't have the courage of his convictions to really shoot the gap, and he gets plowed for his troubles.

There is a version of Bolden that does scream upfield of that block and gets a tackle at the LOS, but we've only seen him in spring games. I think this is the part where I say "it is what it is."

Here his guy actually falls down and Bolden still gets blocked, in part because he fights to the same gap Gedeon does and is unprepared when Howard cuts behind him.

He gets bowled over. Again. By a guy who fell over.

That play is also frustrating because of what it says about Bolden's ability to understand what he should do. Peppers is in the box. Gedeon should fight to this side of the block because Peppers is there behind him. Bolden should expect that exact cutback. Indiana's late fourth quarter touchdown was even worse. Literally the only person outside of Bolden to the boundary is a cornerback, and he just kind of farts his way inside of a blocker:

If that's not a deliberate attempt to let Indiana score it's horrendous. If it is, nevermind.

Can Gedeon save us?

I'd find out, but probably not. Sam Webb reported yesterday that Gedeon was getting a bunch of first team snaps in place of Morgan, which would be insane. I'm hoping/guessing that something was lost in translation there and that it's Bolden. Gedeon is okay. He will hit guys.

Sometimes he makes errors, like he did on a Jordan Howard run we'll discuss in the part about how Jordan Howard is good. But at least he'll hit somebody.

"Gets to fourth down" is not "induces a punt."

No. Kevin Wilson, accursed be his name, went for three early fourth downs, getting two of them. He was not dissuaded after the first one failed. He in fact used the third downs before that with every intention of going on fourth down:

• On third and eight, Indiana runs a zone stretch to set up fourth and two.
• On third and one, Indiana throws a 30-yard pass (at Jourdan Lewis, which is not smart).
• On third and ten, Indiana runs a one-blocker screen to the RB in the flat, again setting up fourth and two.

He's either setting up fourth and short or taking a shot when he's already in a short yardage situation. The latter two fourth down attempts succeeded on a 17-play field goal drive that was a major catalyst for the exhaustion that would set in late. I wonder how different this game feels if Wilson's nerve leaves him.

Wilson's style of offense also managed to lock Godin and Strobel on the field for long stretches of play. On Indiana's second drive that DT pairing was getting torn up but could not exit the field on third and three; IU converted.

All of these things rely on your ability to get yards, but once the avalanche starts Indiana is terrific at keeping it going. It's impossible to quantify just how much dead legs hurt Michigan, but 19 straight runs at the end of the game suggests "a lot". By the second half guys were erratic. Henry has not been blown out like this much, if at all, so far this year:

Is that the Indiana OL or Henry screwing up or the relentless march of time? Probably some of all three. A few plays later Henry would obliterate a down block, but maybe they have to marshal their energy.

Speaking of Strobel and Godin… uh…

Well, it's not like I expected anything different. Strobel was a backup right guard last week and has always been alarmingly undersized for defensive tackle. Throwing him out there is like throwing Nick Sheridan out there. It is not going to go well. It is not worth getting upset about because it couldn't have gone well.

Godin's performance was a disappointment after he put in good work for large portions of the year. I'm not surprised he got blown off the ball a lot since that has been a weakness for him. I do wonder what he was thinking quite a lot. Michigan started slanting a bunch but he either didn't get the memo or wasn't all there:

That blitz from the backside means that Godin absolutely should not be getting cut off at the pass like that.

Hopefully this is an after-effect of his injury and he'll get better as time passes.

Holding though?

Yeah, the refs did miss a few glaringly obvious ones. I'm talking "hand on the outside of the shoulder pads clearly preventing a relevant defender from making the play" kind of stuff. On the other hand they gave Jourdan Lewis a break on that KO fumble. So… yeah. The incompetence balanced out, which is about all you can hope for these days.

I am painfully jealous of Jordan Howard.

You and me both, buddy. Howard is legit. He has De'Veon Smith's ability to drag guys. I mean:

Meanwhile he is much faster and was excellent at finding the creases wherever they happened to be.

This run in particular was Howard rescuing a zero yard play. Michigan tips a blitz and runs it, which absorbs the lead blocker. Henry takes a double well, leaving two guys unblocked at the POA. Howard waits:

Gedeon should not be there. Gedeon's job is to fill the gap he blitzes to. Gedeon got hammered for this play.

But so many backs, including all of Michigan's backs, run directly at the unblocked guys. Howard slows up in case something pops up and then finds it when it does. That is terrific. That's what people nattering about "patience"—including yours truly—mean. If you gear down for a step or two sometimes a door appears.

Why yes, this means Indiana has had consecutive tailbacks better than any Michigan back since at least Mike Hart and probably Tim Biakabutuka. I'm going to go rock in the corner now.

And I guess there was passing and stuff?

Yeah. The constant zone running nerfed Michigan's pass rush. It's tough to stunt against stretch plays because very frequently the guy running to the playside will get cut off and then the looping gentleman runs himself out of the play, creating a huge gap for free. (Check Godin and Ross on the backside of this play for an example.)

So when Sudfeld dropped to pass he had all day:

Michigan does not have natural pass rushers and has managed to cover up for that most of the year since they're really good at pushing the pocket and that makes stunts very effective. Remove that and that weakness we projected preseason comes roaring back to life. (This is actually a nice reminder that the staff has done a great job covering for a deficiency most of the year.)

Here too is a place where Wilson's tendency to use fourth down helped him: even on mid-length passing downs like third and seven Michigan was hesitant to stunt, because a run that could induce a fourth down try was a possibility.

Coverage was mostly good, but the lack of pass rush allowed Sudfeld to survey and find holes. The redzone was an exception, as Michigan went into attack mode with good success.

When Michigan had nothing left to lose they rose to the occasion, forcing a series of field goal attempts.

Clark got most of the playing time at the other corner spot, getting lost on a punt downfield once and otherwise playing just fine. He had a nice PBU and I do think the offensive pass interference call was legitimate after looking at it a few times. Clark is in the WR's hip pocket until he takes a pushoff in the chest that prevents him from a SHORYUKEN. Later on the same drive he'd give no window on the same route:

The undercut was bad, but understandable. For all the GET YOUR HEAD AROUND yellers, this is the cost of that occasionally:

WR looks so Clark looks, and in that split second the WR sees the ball is underthrown and adjusts before Clark can. Accurate ball is probably a PBU or INT; Clark loses the plot thanks to the (probably not deliberately) underthrown ball.

Lewis did get beat once on a slant and missed a tackle and is terrible so the NFL should not even look at him. This near INT did not happen.

Lewis did somehow manage to not PBU this critical third and eight:

That was (probably) a field goal attempt if Lewis bats the ball away and instead turned into a touchdown. That's just one of those things.

Hill didn't come in as positively as someone who was a Known Friend and Trusted Ally should.

Hill was very important on the final two plays, but it wasn't all roses. The screen touchdown at the end of the first half saw him fail to read that his guy was blocking and replace Bolden:

There were some missed tackles and a couple of bad plays on which Hill was pressed into LB duty that was unfamiliar to him. I think a slant play on which it looked like Hill was beat is actually okay-ish, though. M sent the house and got a guy right up the gut. Hill chucks the TE to break up the route timing and that's just enough:

Hill forces the TE to focus on him just long enough so that the ball is on top of him when he does get his head around.

And this is a great play. WR doesn't really sell a route here but Hill dominates the route and gets his PBU.

Harbaugh thought that's where they were going to go, I thought that's where they were going to go, Sudfeld thought it, Wilson thought it, and he won it.

And while we're talking about the projected safeties for next year, Dymonte Thomas got knocked out early and didn't figure in much. (He returned late and is fine.) He did make one nice open field tackle on a screen.

Heroes?

Henry dug deep and had some big plays late. Morgan was putting out fires in a fire factory. Hill made big plays late.

Maybe not so heroic?

The backup DTs were overwhelmed. Bolden was nowhere to be found. Hurst was too up and down for a player of his quality.

What does it mean for Penn State and the future?

TEXAS SWEAR LADY ABOUT GLASGOW. Remove Joey Bosa from OSU. That is the relative impact. Michigan has to figure some things out. They cannot go with Strobel there. It's not happening. Henry played a bunch of nose late and was up for all the snaps. I think they have to lean on him heavily. Hurst will start; Henry is now the backup NT and hope that Godin is still on the recovery trail and can play a bunch of DE snaps.

Morgan is a tough hombre and if you complain about him you are bad and should feel bad. I feel very strongly about this, thus all the clips. He is doing all that he can. He is not a superhero LB, but he is a rock.

Bolden is bad. Nevermind that stuff about how he was okay. He is bad, and the DL covered it up. Very, very frustrating player.

Hill bounced back. I don't really blame him for a number of the minuses since he was drafted to play LB against Jordan Howard. Thomas also showed a flash of talent.

I don't think this will hurt us too much against PSU… they are a very slow tempo team with a bad offensive line that Hurst can probably dominate and then get off the field against.

…but our chances of beating OSU probably halved. Oh look it's a team perfectly suited to take advantage of the weakness that was just ruthlessly exposed.