Preview: Indiana 2015

Essentials

Professor Chaos via Patrick Barron.

Parking note sponsored by Park 'n' Party, which is your fancy same-place-all-the-time tailgate headquarters. They tell me they're now expanding into catering and equipment so they can accommodate all levels of commitment. They also say that if you wait you will not get parking and then you will wander the earth doomed for all time have to explain this to your spouse. Seriously, they sold out for MSU and OSU is on the way.

Overview

Indiana hasn't won a whole lot of Big Ten games but they've given big chunks of the league heart attacks. They were within 30 yards of beating Ohio State, they stuck close to Michigan State for about 55 minutes, they were down 21-20 against Iowa deep into the second half.

They have also lost to Rutgers. Like this.

In addition they own a one-point win over Southern Illinois and a three-point win over Western Kentucky. #CHAOSTEAM is real. #CHAOSTEAM is here.

Run Offense vs Indiana

TJ Simmons is one man against the world

Indiana's defense isn't good at anything; it's worse at defending rushes than passes. In Big Ten games:

• OSU ran for 272 yards on 34 rushes, 8 YPC
• PSU ran for 154 yards on 32 rushes, 4.8 YPC
• Rutgers ran for 210 yards on 40 rushes, 5.3 YPC
• Iowa ran for 234 yards on 44 rushes, 5.3 YPC.

Only MSU, the #12 rushing offense in the league, was even vaguely slowed. Michigan is not in OSU's class but they're right about where Rutgers and Penn State are. S&P+ has Indiana 91st nationally; they have a bad situation where they get mauled off the ball on short yardage (104th nationally) and also give up a ton of big plays (95th).

Problems start with the big guys, who aren't big enough and tend to vacate lanes:

The defensive line is the source of a lot of Indiana's defensive woes. To make up for being a little undersized and mostly unable to beat blocks straight up, they slant often, and Iowa used this against them over and over:

That's the entire defensive line and both inside linebackers stuck on the wrong side of the field a mere moment after the handoff. Akrum Wadley—yet another opposing running back I now covet—had ten free yards, then got an extra bunch with a slick juke on a safety just outside the screen.

Darius Latham is an exception at a full 300 pounds; he has a swell recruiting pedigree but has had some issues staying on the field, missing the opener with a suspension and the OSU and PSU games with injury. He's been on the field for the last few games but has struggled to have much impact since guys can just run where he ain't.

Indiana's guys get very aggressive in an attempt to make up for problems like those above and could be susceptible to the trap plays Michigan has largely put in their back pocket since it was clear opposing teams were spending significant amounts of time prepping for them.

The linebackers are actually pretty good when TJ Simmons, who's the kind of knifing presence Michigan fans hoped James Ross would develop into, is present. He missed the second half of the Iowa game after a (correct) targeting call; he will be back for the full 60 against Michigan since his ejection happened at the tail end of the first half.

And then the safeties:

The safeties, as you'd expect from Indiana's number of big plays allowed, were awful. [Chase] Dutra is aggressive and takes terrible angles to the ball, which is not a good combination. Crawford is slightly more reliable from what I can tell but that may just be because Dutra plays more in the box.

The eye test agrees with the stats: Indiana gets blown off the ball a lot, has some linebackers valiantly trying to mitigate issues, and after them it's a crapshoot.

As far as Michigan's half of this goes, they've scuffled along for the most part. They should be able to beat up the Indiana front; too often this year they've had one or two guys (ballcarriers included) commit play-breaking errors.  The overall results are okay—36th in S&P+—but a lack of big play ability, especially from the tailbacks, has held succesfull plays down. Michigan doesn't get stuffed much; they frequently thunk out three yards. It's a work in progress.

Michigan should have success but if they don't hit a big one—and they're not good at that—the numbers will be a bit underwhelming.

KEY MATCHUP: INDIANA LINEBACKERS versus SECOND LEVEL BLOCKS. If the LBs get handled Michigan is going to be sailing.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of Indiana, which is basically what you expect from Indiana every year now]

Pass Offense vs Indiana

Nick Mangieri is Indiana's prime sackist

Indiana is about where Rutgers is in passing stats. They've given up 8.1 YPA this season, are allowing 60% of opponent passes to be completed, and have given up 22 TDs to 6 INTs this season. They're not quite as bad as the Scarlet Knights in the fancy stats except in one department: giving up big plays. Opponents have hit 18 30+ yard passes on the Hoosiers this year, which is tied for 103rd nationally. The 46(!) 20+ yard passes they've given are 124th, ahead of only Western Kentucky, Rutgers, and Nebraska.

Indiana plays a lot of soft coverage in an effort to prevent this from happening, so Michigan's wide receiver screen game could make a reappearance after a number of games in which defenses have played close enough to the line of scrimmage to prevent easy smoke screens. With Indiana's LBs are blitz-heavy and jumpy about the run; that plus iffy safeties could yield a big day for Jake Butt.

Ace thought maybe one of Indiana's corners, Rashard Fant, was good because he wasn't targeted much in the game he reviewed. The one who was targeted a bunch is true freshman Andre Brown, who had a "disastrous game":

He had a hard time holding his zones and an equally hard time tackling after the catch; Green had similar issues when he entered the game. Here's what happened when Brown tried to play press man:

Only a Beathard overthrow prevented a very long touchdown.

Indiana does have a reasonable pass rush, about average in fancystats. DE Nick Mangieri leads the team with seven sacks, four of which came against Ohio State (impressive) and Penn State (well, kind of impressive). The other DL haven't chipped in much, but the linebackers have nine sacks between them. Michigan's going to have to pick up a bunch of blitzes when they end up in passing downs.

I mean… this is an Indiana pass defense. I could have just said that and saved you some time.

Michigan's half of this is coming off a shiny 13.5 YPA day against a similar Rutgers outfit. Jake Rudock had a day reminiscent of the good bits of his 2014 season. He was confident in his reads, on point with his throws, and even threw in a Devin Gardner-esque touchdown scramble. If Rudock can build on that performance this week Michigan has an opportunity to go into their final two games of the year with much more confidence in this unit.

The throws should be there to be made.

KEY MATCHUP:JAKE RUDOCK versus MY 100% DEAD CERTAINTY THAT HE WILL NEVER COMPLETE A PASS OF 30 OR MORE YARDS for THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK because DAMMIT ONE OF THESE DAYS THIS REVERSE JINX WILL WORK.

Run Defense vs Indiana

Jordan Howard: good

And now the bits of the Hoosiers that are highly legit. Every year under Kevin Wilson, Indiana has had an excellent offense until the point at which the QB and his backup are devoured by wolves and they have to throw a hastily-animated golem made of pipe cleaners and a Bea Arthur mask out there. This happened again in 2015 and they're still doing all right.

But this is about the run game. In the preseason we all took a look at UAB transfer Jordan Howard for Draftageddon and said "meh," passing him over. That was a real bad idea. Howard is averaging over six yards a carry and is coming off back to back weeks against Iowa and Michigan State. Those defenses are amongst the best in the country against the run; Howard ripped them for 250 yards on 33 carries.

Howard's been in and out of the lineup with an ankle issue, so he missed the Penn State and Rutgers games. His one truly bad outing of the year was against OSU, when he struggled to 34 yards on 14 carries. That was partially OSU's defense being good and partially Indiana's periodic attempts to see if Howard could still run on his ankle. The answer was clearly no.

When healthy, Howard brings a mixture of power and elusiveness that is extremely frustrating if you're a Michigan fan currently looking at two five star running backs deservedly stapled to the bench. Ace clipped a couple of his touchdowns against Iowa; this one is my favorite:

That bounce to the sideline is legit.

Don't sleep on Indiana's offensive line, which features two likely future NFL players in guard Dan Feeney and tackle Jason Spriggs plus a collection of experienced players around them—the entire Indiana line consists of fourth or fifth year players, including tight end Michael Cooper. They know exactly what they're doing and with Indiana's tempo sometimes the defense does not.

The Wolverine side has a hiccup. The injury status of Michigan NT Ryan Glasgow looms over this game. Glasgow left the Rutgers game after an innocuous-seeming tackle attempt; he has been spotted in a sling this week. Scout's Joshua Henshcke is reporting he is definitely out this week and that the tea "hopes" to have him back for OSU.

While Maurice Hurst has been pretty awesome himself this season, Glasgow is more consistent, and two NTs are more effective collectively than either guy would be on his own because NTs get tired. If Glasgow is absent I'd expect Michigan to rotate Willie Henry down to NT some and get Taco Charlton extra playing time at end; Matt Godin should be on the verge of returning.

If Glasgow is out that's a major hit to one of the country's best run defenses. Michigan is third in YPC allowed, third in fancystats. They've given up just six 20+ yard runs (13th nationally) and the 55 yarder Rutgers hit thanks in part to a hold was the first to exceed 30. This is not all Glasgow. Henry, Wormley, and Hurst have all been more or less dominant for the duration, with Desmond Morgan capably filling most of the hole behind (except for that one game that was bad).

This will be a battle, and while I was just about to say Michigan's depth makes them unusually well suited to containing Indiana's rushing game for the duration… uh.

KEY MATCHUP: MICHIGAN LINEBACKERS and SAFETIES versus GETTING TEMPOED and then GIVING HOWARD AN EDGE HE CAN EXPLOIT

Pass Defense vs Indiana

Sudfeld will be the best QB Michigan has seen outside of Connor Cook

When not staffed by Indiana's dismal backup quarterbacks—IU fans must be dying about the departure of Tre Roberson—this has been an excellent unit. Nate Sudfeld missed the Penn State game and a chunk of the Ohio State game; when on the field he is averaging 8.5 YPA. That is a tad bit deceiving since Sudfeld's statistics get a major boost from his inconveniently-timed injury; he had just 4.9 YPA last week against Iowa, which is the first legitimate defense he had a full game against. His 10/21, 6.4 YPA line against OSU isn't the worst; neither is it particularly amazing.

However, Ace heaped most of the blame for that ugly Iowa number on the wideouts:

Indiana's receivers were horrible against Iowa, with flat-out drops costing the Hoosiers at least five first down throws—that's not exaggeration for effect. Sudfeld's HenneChart therefore looks way better than his traditional box score line…

Sudfeld will be the best quarterback Michigan has faced outside of Connor Cook. He's got a strong arm, good pocket presence, plenty of comfort in the offense, and the accuracy to get his receivers solid YAC even when throwing into tight windows.

Mitchell Paige, Indiana's exciting 5'7" guy du jour, would make Ace fist-shakingly angry when he took an inch perfect corner route off his face.

Paige is a screens and end-arounds and maybe he'll wander downfield occasionally kind of guy; he projects to get open against Jabrill Peppers some since Peppers has mostly been sticking with tight end types the last few weeks. The other receivers have clear matchup preferences: Simmie Cobbs is 6'4" and not an amazing athlete; 5'10 Ricky Jones is Indiana's most frequently targeted and most efficient (10.4 YPT) receiver. Those gents will draw Clark/Stribling and Lewis, respectively.

Indiana will throw a smattering of balls to other guys but there is a steep drop off in both targets and performance after the top three. Michael Cooper, the tight end, is an exception, with 10 catches on 13 targets. But that's just over one per game—the game is the three wideouts.

Indiana is very good at protecting Sudfeld, 12th in adjusted sack rate. As mentioned in the rush defense section, the Indiana OL is legit.

Michigan's pass defense is not quite as dominant as the rush defense but it is very good, led by All-American Jourdan Lewis and a developing hybrid space missile in Jabrill Peppers. Of late some holes have popped up when Michigan's second safety is pressed into decisions; Dymonte Thomas emerged into a starting role last week and almost had a really good game. Instead he had an all right one; he will be a key man as Indiana spreads the field and tries to hit Michigan's weak points.

Michigan's stunt-heavy pass rush is has slipped slightly from earlier in the season but is still 22nd in adjusted sack rate; they figure to get after Sudfeld more than previous teams have. Part of the Indiana sack rate is a profusion of wide receiver screens, which brings Peppers into play frequently for the first time since the opening weeks of the season. Stretching things horizontally is a prime component of the Hoosier offense, something they cannot go away from without seriously impacting their efficiency; Peppers is going to get repeatedly tested.

KEY MATCHUP: JABRILL PEPPERS, HYBRID SPACE MISSILE versus THEY'RE GONNA RUN SCREENS ANYWAY

Special Teams

Indiana is pretty blah in all departments here. They're slightly above average at field goals, punt returns, and kickoffs. They're real bad at punting and kick returns.

Eric Toth, the punter, has a 42 yard average but opponents have returned 22 of those punts for just under 8 yards each. Meanwhile he's forced just 12 fair catches on 49 attempts. A return rate just under 50% once you remove touchbacks with decent yardage suggests that Jabrill Peppers is going to have opportunities.

Kicker Griffin Oakes, who I guarantee has been on a fox hunt, is 12/14 on mostly short field goals this year. He's 2/4 from 40 and out. He does get a ton of KO touchbacks.

The return game has been a 91 yard punt return TD against Western Kentucky and 4.4 yards a pop otherwise. They got to the 40 once on a kickoff; they've done little else.

Michigan dropped to fifth in the FEI special teams rankings after giving up a kick return touchdown and another long punt return to Janarion Grant last week, but you pretty much know the deal here: excellent return units, a solid kicker from 40 and in, a terrific punter. That Michigan is still so high despite having two very very bad plays on the resume is a testament to the job John Baxter has done this year.

KEY MATCHUP: CALL THE BLEEDING OBVIOUS TARGETING PENALTIES OR I'LL JIBBER-JAB YOU IN THE TONKERS, MATE

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Michigan is shell-shocked by tempo.
• Michigan's defensive line is thin due to injury and wears out.
• Michigan screws up enough blocks that the poor Indiana defense is able to run unmolested at Michigan tailbacks.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• Rudock continues his impression of a suave, sophisticated world-travelling quarterback with a fabulous grasp of what's happening around him.
• Two Indiana defenders tackle each other.
• Peppers catches a returnable punt.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 3 (Baseline 5; +1 for #CHAOSTEAM, –1 for #CHAOSTEAM, +1 for Tempo Willies, –1 for Michigan Just Shattered A Version Of This Defense, +1 for Indiana Put Up Points On OSU Minus Howard And Sudfeld, –1 for They Gave Up 55 To Rutgers, –1 for 55! TO! RUTGERS!, –1 for Two-TD Spread)

Desperate need to win level: 9 (Baseline 5; +1 for Division Race Is On For Real Now, +1 for NY6 Very Much In Sight, +1 for Haven't Lost To Indiana Since 1987 Which Is About The Last Streak Going, +1 for I Like Feeling Happy)

Loss will cause me to... fall over in a heap after watching a 72-70 barnburner

Win will cause me to... advocate that Indiana keeps Kevin Wilson anyway because at least they're interesting and really isn't that enough for Indiana football?

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

The loss of Glasgow is especially keen against a team that likes to go-go-go, and it'll impact Michigan. Sudfeld is good enough to hit a number of throws like Cook did where you shrug and say "good show, sport." Howard is good enough to bust through whatever gaps appear in the line. But Michigan is too good on D to let Indiana go up and down the field all day. They will score some points; they'll have to settle for some field goals.

Michigan's offense should punch the Indiana D's face in as long as Rudock is the Rudock from the Rutgers game. If he reverts to sad ghost Rudock this game could devolve into a not-quite shootout slugfest, but the bet here is that Indiana can't cover or pressure sufficiently to rattle him.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Rudock hits 9 YPA, which is not 13.5 but is still very good.
• De'Veon Smith has a big day as he is delivered to the second level a lot; he has three or four runs on which he just carries people downfield.
• Michigan gets a big special teams play.
• Michigan, 39-19