Upon Further Review 2015: Offense vs Minnesota

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FORMATION NOTES: I did an inconsistent job of it this week but I plan on denoting all 6 OL setups with "heavy" going forward. You can deduce which snaps were 6 OL when there are only four skill players listed this week, although I might have missed a couple.

The new things this week were mostly Peppers related. This was "Ace twin TE Peppers H":

This was "Emory Tight":

As a reminder, "Pistol" implies a tailback and a TE so Pistol FB is this:

As far as Minnesota goes they generally went with a 4-3 even or over. The most notable thing about their D was the MLB, who lined up a yard or two deeper than the other guys, as you can see in the above shot.

Also Minnesota's goal line formation was goofy. Just four guys on the line.

I still called this "goal line."

PERSONNEL NOTES: Line per usual with the exception of Grant Newsome, who had several snaps as a sixth OL. Poggi didn't play; he was left home with pneumonia; stay away from Ricky Doyle please. As a result Michigan played largely without an H-back, instead going with a lot of two inline TE sets.

WR was per usual except DaMario Jones got in briefly with Drake Harris out. Ways got a target on the first drive but then was absent; Chesson and Darboh got almost all the PT, with Perry the third guy in three WR sets.

Isaac and Higdon did not play at RB, where it was mostly Smith early and mostly Johnson late with some Derrick Green in the first half.

[After THE JUMP: here is Speight to save the day / no he shouldn't be the starter]

I tell you I was about to write a stern letter to the Big Ten officiating office after we got a Nebraska 2012 replay because of their Magic Targeting Eight Ball.

You should probably still write that letter.

And then Speight was decent, and now I want him to start for the rest of time until such time as he throws an incompletion, at which point I would like Brandon Peters to start.

It is nice that Michigan did not suffer the same fate they did against Nebraska that one year. They managed to find something on the ground late. Meanwhile Harbaugh beat Speight's pads and yelled at him until he was more terrified of not throwing instead of throwing. Michigan also got a huge special teams win when Minnesota left their last punt really short, setting up a short field for Michigan.

But you gotta take advantage, and Michigan did, first by getting Speight a couple of easy throws. He hit Butt on a little play action to the sidelines; the throw was a bit shaky but it got there. The next throw was an RPS play on which Williams hit and then spun to avoid an OPI as Hill dragged across the field; then on third and ten Speight read and hit on a double post:

That was a pretty ballsy setup by Michigan as they had just two wide receivers on the field and went with Grant Newsome as a sixth OL—if Minnesota doesn't leave a safety in a useless deep third to a side of the field where there are literally no eligible WRs, that's probably fourth down.

But it worked, and I'll attribute that to Michigan seeing a vulnerability or something. Yeah.

Then the thing that was pretty impressive:

Speight's movement and awareness to get that complete won the game.

So he should start right.

Almost certainly not.

BUT

I mean, it was nice to see Speight come through when Michigan needed but he did not give off the aura of a guy competing with Rudock seriously, even as frustrating as Rudock's been. And in this game he was okay.

Was he?

Well why don't you look at this

CHART

chart.

Jake Rudock 2014

Jake Rudock 2015

Wilton Speight 2015

Rudock was up and down with a strong period when Michigan raced out to a 14-3 lead followed by a frustrating end to the first half.

The interception on the opening drive was unfortunate more than anything else. Michigan had tried some Peppers frippery than didn't work and Rudock was trying to improvise. It seemed pretty clear that he wasn't going to scramble for the first down and that Smith was available. For a linebacker to get a hand on that pass from about 4 yards away and for that to ricochet to another defender is a pretty unlikely sequence of events; I prefer Rudock trying that rather than scrambling and putting Michigan in fourth and three.

And before and after that he looked solid for about a quarter and a half. This ball to Jake Butt is the kind of thing I've wanted to see from Rudock since I started looking at his Iowa games:

Butt is sort of covered, and in the past we've seen Rudock not throw at sort of covered guys. He is also a half-foot taller than the guy checking him, so he's not that covered, and Rudock throws a ball that takes advantage of that. Rudock hit some guys in tight zone windows; he moved around and hit some productive dumpoffs; he felt more confident and decisive in his reads.

I didn't actually think the first touchdown to Chesson was great, but I'd noticed that that safety is a former walk-on and not too good. It's funny to hear Blackledge talk about how Rudock made his WR stop with the pass as Chesson barrels headlong into the S because that's where the throw goes:

Blackledge is describing the way that should have worked, not the way it actually did.

And then.

And then things got very frustrating. Rudock throws a dangerous pass that a linebacker bats down here, and look at the skycam replay. rant Perry is right in front of his face on a post route; he is one on one with a safety he turns around:

With a tailback dump also available that was bit of a hair-puller.

On the next play (there was an intervening offsides penalty) they run a play designed to work against man coverage, get man coverage, have Chesson open in the flat for the first down, and Rudock just doesn't throw it:

To me that's so much worse than the interception. Punt, Minnesota TD on the fluky Clark corner route, a seven yard hitch, and then Michigan gets Peppers singed up on a linebacker:

Live I did not notice that Rudock got some gentle pressure. His answer to that was to hop back two steps and throw off his back foot, which works great if you're Connor Cook. If he had stepped up in the pocket he can get the requisite arm strength on this throw to… well, probably to overthrow Peppers. But Peppers is really fast so he might run it down anyway.

And then another swing pass way off:

That's a first down or close to one; Michigan would go for it on the ensuing fourth down and turn it over, paving the way for a Minnesota FG. That's a huge swing at the end of the half because Rudock missed a zero yard pass.

Add it up and it's slightly less frustrating than previous games because he did hit some DO throws, but the continual inability to hit deep is hurting the offense.

You said in the table to talk about the decision to go for it on fourth down.

Absolute no brainer. Fourth and six is makeable. You're on the Minnesota 37. There's a minute left in the half. You have a lights-out defense going up an offense that has to this point in the season been very bad, especially downfield. The ensuing drive only got anywhere because Leidner threw an interception that somehow eluded Dymonte Thomas.

I find our run game alarming.

First, chart:

I thought the blocking was fine overall despite not great days from Kalis and Glasgow; the TEs and Cole made up for it.

So why were the numbers so blah?

Part of this goes back to Rudock. We again got no completed deep balls. Michigan attempted just two. One was very early to Damario Jones and overthrown; one went to Peppers and was drastically underthrown. With Michigan 0-fer on passes of more than about 20 yards downfield, opposing safeties are getting way up in Michigan's grill. Minnesota has their dudes seven yards from the LOS here:

That's no way to live. There are other reasons that play doesn't get a ton but in general safeties are filling too close to the line of scrimmage.

Michigan got a huge gap on one of their counter iso plays only for a safety, again lined up at seven yards, to run up and cut off the outside before Darboh could intercept him:

That is likely (well, maybe) a Smith bounce to the corner and a solid gain if Rudock could put the fear of God into the safeties. Or even the fear of a minor saint. The saint of bird flu, leftist book groups, and coleslaw.

Michigan is physically competent in their blocking but not overwhelming; they are not total goobers with their execution but there's often a guy or two who isn't quite getting it right.

And, well, you know. The tailbacks.

/erects spittle umbrella

I'm pretty much over it, but I'm not sure if any tailback except Drake Johnson made a more than a yard or two for himself on Saturday.

Michigan ran a lot of zone and on zone plays you need to cut. If you do not cut on zone defenders are on the correct side of the blockers and guys are flowing to you. If you do not cut on zone this happens:

Glasgow doesn't get to that linebacker, but I don't blame him. I blame a running back that declared where he was going as soon as he got the ball. Pick one side of that buried guy at the LOS, threaten the other side of it, and then cut. There is such a thing as being too north/south and that's it.

Ditto this zone play from Smith a bit later.

Cut. He runs directly into a DL because he does not change his flight path for the duration of the play. Now, maybe that linebacker lights you up. Maybe Braden got just enough to put you through the crease. Running in a straight line at a block that you should be reading all the way is a great way to set up your cut… if you cut. Michigan's blocking isn't stellar but there are a lot of opportunities to get 2, 3, 4 yards more than Michigan ends up with.

I mean, the first time I saw Johnson make a cut I was like "nope, never going to play." He still seems to change direction like a guy 50 pounds heavier than he is, but at least he will set a guy up and go inside of him. Johnson wipes the corner on this play by indicating he is running in a direction and then changing that direction.

I'm not sure if Johnson has plus characteristics other than his speed and his press conferences (A++++) but he feels like a much more natural running back than the other guys.

Hail Drake, though?

I'm on board with Michigan trying to find out of Johnson is their feature back. I was a skeptic for a long time and I'm still not quite sure what he does that well other than run fast, but every time he gets a good chunk of carries he produces. A lot of the time it feels like he's just running into bigass holes that other guys don't get…

…but maybe he's using the running back fairy to poof them into existence or something?

via Smoothitron

Also, I like how Johnson presses outside a little on that run. He ends up cutting right off Glasgow's butt after committing two guys outside. It's not a drastic cut. It's not a highlight play, but he appears to understand how to set up his blocks. That's what I mean when I say he feels like a more natural running back.

He may be wobbly in pass protection. Michigan almost always sends him out of the backfield, which makes sense but that predictability could hamper the offense. Also he's a little rusty still—one sack was partially on him getting on Magnuson's way.

But yes let's give him half the carries unless it seems like he should have more.

We haven't really talked about the OL in any specific way this year. Can we maybe get some takes on those guys?

Cole and Glasgow are very similar. They're Michigan's best second level blockers. They're consistent with their assignments. They remember to keep stepping around guys when they are tasked with sealing someone away from the play. They are good pass protectors but not great; neither is a physical marvel but they are both solid, consistent technicians. Glasgow had an off day but I think a part of that was he was getting good blocks far away from the play that I didn't judge.

Glasgow doesn't actually get a hit here but this play is a pretty good demonstration of both those gents. Cole will pull to the Peppers jet sweep; Glasgow releases downfield and doesn't find anyone to hit until the end of the play:

Glasgow isn't served well by it here but he gets in space and slows down a bit, looking to see if there's anyone to hit. That has paid off several times this year when Glasgow's awareness of what's around him has seen him cut off a guy who doesn't seem to be on his radar. Meanwhile, Cole's superior agility is on display there. He is by far Michigan's most consistent second-level blocker because he can redirect to match most linebackers even when they go off script and decide to go upfield of him. I am rarely if ever irritated by an assignment they messed up.

The other guys are a clear step or two behind. Kalis is the most frustrating to me. He has a tendency to run past guys he should block and he's wobbly on the second level. He got two separate –2s in this game because he ran by a dude who he definitely should have hit. Braden is similar but tends to bring more oomph to his blocks; I am also less persnickety about him just because he's come a long long way since last year.

Let's go back to that Drake Johnson run. Go back and look at Cole in the above play. Now on the Johnson run, Michigan has this busted for a long play. If Drake gets past the guy who tackles him Michigan has four(!) blockers for the two safeties. The guy who gets him did the thing that Cole successfully stoned in the above clip:

Braden can't match it. That's the difference between the starting guards and Cole/Glasgow. (That and the fact that Cole gets a kick ass block on the DE for the duration.) Not on every play. On a lot of plays.

Finally, Magnuson is JAG right now. He's okay at blocking. They don't run to him very much. There are not many plays on which he has a big role and that seems to be about half Cole and half Magnuson. He is the Jarrod Wilson of the offensive line.

What about Grant Newsome?

He got maybe a dozen snaps. He certainly looks the part, and on that third and one above he buried a defensive end. I think he messed up one power play but he is a freshman.

I may not like burning Newsome's redshirt but at least he's played a meaningful role in a close game here. That's also a good sign for him personally and Michigan's OL next year. They only need to replace one guy; having a prototype left tackle surge through two or three other guys and look good doing it makes it likely he starts next year. If I had to bet right now I'd say next year's line reads Newsome-Braden-Cole-Kalis-Magnuson. Remember that Cole got a lot of time at center last spring.

PEPPERS

Can I say Reggie Bush here? I feel that's what he'd be if he was a primarily offensive player.

(I had forgotten that Bush insanely lateraled the ball in the Texas-USC Rose Bowl.)

OKAY

That's not an exaggeration?

NAW

Michigan expanded their package for him in this game. It's still a very trick-oriented package: wildcat stuff including a pass, a couple of plays where he was like HEY LOOK AT ME I MIGHT GET A SCREEN, end-arounds and reverses. The reverse to Chesson was basically a free 22 yards as Minnesota's backside completely abandons their responsibilities to chase Peppers:

Even so I'd like it if Peppers's appearances on offense started becoming more like "we just happen to have a slot/RB who we don't play very much because he's also on D" instead of the hand-waving decoy business. I'd like to see Peppers start running bubble action, because holy pants when Michigan decides to hit that over the top that's going to work, right?

Meanwhile, when he got the ball as a runner he displayed the kind of power that makes you think about the fact that momentum is mass times velocity:

Ball's in the inside hand, though. If Michigan tries to use him as an inside runner I bet they end up with a lot of the same issues as the current guys have just because he isn't repping consistently. Put him in one on one situations in open space, though, and…

I AM EXCITED

Sure, yeah.

ARE YOU NOT

I don't want to think about it because I don't want to overheat and get disappointed when he doesn't have a Tom Harmon game against Ohio State.

OKAY I GET THAT BUT STILL

Yeah, man, all Peppers everything.

Stanfordizations of the week?

Minnesota's defense was a little tricky for Michigan. They line up their middle linebacker a couple yards deeper than the other guys, which gives him time to read and react and get around second level blocks. He's the guy highlighted closer to the LOS here:

The past couple weeks had seen those linebackers read action to the right and bury themselves in the line; this week the opponent was more patient.

The Gopher linebackers were very much in the read and react mode, unlike the rampage-prone Northwestern and MSU second level. This meant Michigan's misdirection didn't pay off much, but neither did Michigan get threatened in the backfield very often. True to their stats, the Gophers didn't give up many yards but neither did they chip in many explosive plays.

(On the other hand, Minnesota's goal line package didn't make any damn sense. Kerridge plowed the ball from the 4 into the endzone on two carries on Michigan's opening TD drive in part because Michigan lined up in a goal line formation and Minnesota responded with a four man line. The ensuing doubles by Michigan were basically unchallenged:

Weird.)

Anyway, with misdirection off the table Michigan's primary wrinkle were zone plays. Michigan ran stretches a lot; during Drake's late renaissance he was picking up a lot of yards on pin and pull plays where the center and backside tackle were coming around. Some of the stretches were hard to ID because Minnesota would get reached so quickly the OL barely had to step, and then Michigan got the edge. There were a lot of plays that got outside the tackle, so many that I have to think the design of Minnesota's defense is vulnerable to that for whatever reason. The defensive ends got edged a ton and Minnesota linebackers absolutely loved going upfield of Michigan blocks:

When you do that you better make the play; sometimes they did. Other times not so much.

In the second half Michigan found something with Drake Johnson. I mentioned one bigass hole above; here's another:

The late pin and pull zones baffled Minnesota. Michigan had previously only used that scheme to run outside sweeps; in this game Minnesota DEs would blast upfield when they felt that coming, leaving truck lanes up the middle. Johnson was able to take advantage on a series of 10+ yard runs.

This isn't much in the way of frippery. It's just running plays.

Accurate. With the exception of the Peppers stuff, the nature of the Minnesota defense didn't lend itself to the kind of things we've seen in previous weeks. I did find a cool thing.

This is a split zone counter that set Michigan up to punch in their first touchdown. On split zone the FB comes down and hits the backside end here; this time he arcs around and goes out to the second level, where he wrecks a DB.

If that's an actual read Rudock blew it; when the RB ends up running next to the QB and is getting yards the pull is wide open.

Smith's lack of giddyup—Johnson probably scores—and a missed block on Minnesota's backside LB prevent this from getting to the endzone but I liked to see that quite a bit anyway. Always wanted M to run that with Denard for obvious reasons.

Receivers?

[0 = uncatchable, 1 = circus catch, 2 = moderate difficulty, 3 = routine]

Very solid week from them, with no drops and a number of moderately difficult catches. Michigan didn't have a ton of trouble getting open against a very good secondary, which is a nice bump in expectations. Darboh shaking Eric Murray like this is unexpected:

But with a limited passing game these guys aren't chipping in a ton.

Heroes?

Cole. Butt and Williams. Darboh. Johnson.

Maybe not so heroic?

Rudock was up and down but ultimately down; Kalis has a rough outing; tailbacks other than Johnson.

What does it mean for Rutgers and beyond?

Love the Drake. Feature back shot starts now. He's producing. That's enough.

Status quo at QB. Signs of life, then signs of WTF, and no deep balls again. Speight's entry into the race gives Michigan a backup that is somewhat capable of moving the ball, so that's nice.

Darboh had a nice day. The receivers may be good but held back by extenuating circumstances. We've had a very long run of time without boggling drops being a common feature, which is something to be grateful for in CFB. Illinois has something like 46(!!!) this year.

Cole is very good. I don't think he's a great pass protector and expect him to get worked by Joey Bosa, because he is not really a left tackle. This may open the door for Grant Newsome next year if he is on a stardom track, while Cole is excellent on the interior.

It's a struggle. This is the offense; they scuffle and usually scrape out enough points.