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Opponent Watch 2015: Week 8

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About Last Week:

It was a bye week, so for the second week in a row, NO FOOTBALL OF ANY KIND HAPPENED.

The Road Ahead:

Minnesota (4-3, 1-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Nebraska, 48-25; Bye

Recap: We’ve got to start this week on a serious down note. Jerry Kill, one of the fundamentally good dudes in a fundamentally un-dude profession, announced his immediate retirement on Wednesday morning. And this wasn’t a Steve Spurrier “eh, let’s go do something else that is more golf-adjacent” retirement. Kill’s presser made clear that he wanted to keep coaching, and that he has no idea what else he’s going to do, but for health reasons he just can’t coach anymore:

Seriously, watch that whole thing. Watch it twice.

Part of being a football fan is mentally divorcing the game you see from the toll it takes on the people involved. We tend to think of coaches as being above that fray. But these guys are a different breed, and take on an impossibly overwhelming task. It is no wonder that it breaks even the strong.

Kill was dealt an even more impossible task than making Minnesota football competitive in the 21st century. It's inspiring that he tried to do what he loved anyway. It's equally inspiring that he walked away from it when he couldn't do it right anymore. I vote anything with Paterno's name on it gets changed to Kill. Except Jay.

In a football sense, Minnesota is also in a rough place. After opening the year 4-1 and getting some honest-to-god votes in the polls, Minnesota is going to have to scramble to make a bowl game. The Gophers have to find two wins among home games against Michigan, Illinois, and Wisconsin, and road games at Ohio State and Iowa. All five of those teams are in the S&P Top 25, and Bill Connelly has them winning about one more game.

This team is as frightening as: a 30 cent water jug. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Minnesota may be inspired by Kill’s departure and turn in an unexpectedly strong performance.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: They still need to, like, score points to win.

When they play Michigan: This is basically Michigan with Direct TV vs. Michigan with Cable.

This week: vs. Michigan, 7:00 p.m., ESPN

[After the JUMP, a lot of things to sleep soundly about]

Rutgers (3-4, 1-3 B1G)

Last week: Won at Indiana, 55-52

Recap: This may genuinely come as a surprise to you, given that (a) this happened at about the same time as the end of the Michigan/Michigan State game, and (b) it involves Rutgers doing something right, but Rutgers completed a comeback two weeks ago that was almost as statistically unlikely as what happened in Michigan Stadium. With about five and a half minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Indiana scored to go up 52-27. Starting at that point the possessions went as follows:

  • Rutgers touchdown
  • Indiana fumble (returned for a touchdown)
  • Indiana interception
  • Rutgers touchdown
  • Indiana interception
  • Rutgers touchdown
  • Indiana three-and-out
  • Rutgers field goal

In that set of eight series, Rutgers moved the ball 255 yards (with penalties). Indiana moved the ball 22 yards and turned the ball over 3 times in 13 plays.

Rutgers, of course, managed to ride the momentum of this thrilling victory into the Horseshoe, where they were promptly drubbed by Ohio State by a bajillion points and $Texas yards.

This team is as frightening as: Delaware. Not the football team. The state. Like if you had to fight them in a war or something. Fear Level = 2

Michigan should worry about: As usual, Leonte Carroo I guess.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Rutgers is giving up 7.50 yards per play in conference play, which is dead last in the country. No team is surrendering more yards per play to conference foes than Rutgers. They are giving up more than DOUBLE Michigan’s 3.43 yards per play in conference.

When they play Michigan: Kyle Flood will have outlasted at least three Big Ten coaches this season. In case you wondered whether the world was a good and fair place.

This week: at Wisconsin, noon, BTN

Indiana (4-4, 0-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Rutgers 55-52; lost to Michigan State 52-26

Recap: Oh, Indiana. What to do with you. In back to back weeks you were beating the less frequently seen bodily fluids out of Rutgers and going toe-to-toe with undefeated Michigan State… through three quarters. And then…

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…you see, what had happened was…

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…aw.

Still, there have been signs of life from Indiana. Since returning from injury, over these two games Nate Sudfeld threw for 772 yards and 7 touchdowns at 9.8 yards per attempt.

This team is as frightening as: Indiana, circa all the years. Fear Level = 3.5

Michigan should worry about: Indiana’s offense seems to have woken up.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana’s offense looks a lot like the offenses Michigan mashed in the dangly bits earlier this year. And while Michigan has surrendered 41 points in the last 6 games, Indiana is surrendering 37.3 points PER GAME.

When they play Michigan: I actually think Indiana will score some points in this one.

This week: Bye

Penn State (6-2, 3-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Ohio State 38-10, beat Maryland 31-30.

Recap: I'm kinda tired of talking about Penn State. They are about as generic of a Big Ten team as you can ask for. They got whalloped by Ohio State and played a barn-burner with Maryland. It's getting really hard to not sound like I am channeling my inner Mack Brown when I talk about them, as almost every statement has a "yeah, we knew that because we've seen football ever."

They're #50 in the country in F+. They have a good defense. They have a bad offense. They don't score many points. They can run the ball a little, but throwing the ball is bad. They haven't lost to anybody bad, but they haven't beaten anybody good. They just kind of exist in a world. 

This team is as frightening as: Every year we nominate a team to be The Rock. But few have been so consistently The Rock as this year’s The Rock. I haven't had to photoshop the rock once to make the rock seem like it was coming downhill more, or that there was some amusing crap in the way. No, this year's team has been what we thought they were from minute one.

Rock

Solid. Solid as a Rock. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Saquon Barkley. Barkley returned from injury and picked up right where he left off, rushing for 194 yards on 26 carries against Ohio State, though he struggled a bit against Maryland. He’s the unquestioned lead back at this point; in the last two games Barkley has 46 carries, while other non-QBs accounted for only 9 total carries.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Penn State relies on Chris Godwin for a similar percentage of the passing game as Michigan State does on Aaron Burbridge, but Hackenberg does not have the same ability to deliver the ball into tight windows, and is more prone to poor throws when attempting to do so (not to mention the fact that Godwin, while good, isn’t Aaron Burbridge, who's currently the top WR on PFF). If Hack tries to use the “throw at Jourdan Lewis” game plan all night, Lewis might end up with more receptions than Godwin.

When they play Michigan: Go ahead, Hack. Do it. Unleash your inner Rex Grossman. Just a little bit. You know you want to.

This week: vs. Illinois, noon, ESPN2

Ohio State (8-0, 4-0 B1G)

Last week: Beat Penn State, 38-10; Beat Rutgers 49-7

Recap: Well poop. For a while it appeared as if Michigan might get lucky, and Urban Meyer might have gone the whole season without noticing, “gee, the guy who isn’t playing is way better and a way better fit for this offense than the guy who is playing.” It isn't a coincidence that the two games with J.T. Barrett at the helm have been Ohio State's first real complete performances since week one. I suppose it doesn't hurt that they played Penn State and Rutgers, but still.

This team is as frightening as: Crap they're probably that whirling ball of death again. Fear Level = 9

Michigan should worry about: The whirling ball of death.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Maybe Urban Meyer will decide that Braxton Miller should get a turn as the starting quarterback, but that he should run a Wing-T offense. With ten players. 

When they play Michigan: Haaaaaaaaaaaate.

This week: Bye

Objects in the Rearview Mirror

Utah

Last week: Beat Arizona State, 34-18; Lost at USC, 42-24

Recap: Utah basically experienced the opposite of the Michigan game. They played a roughly even game, other than the small matter of an avalanche of turnovers. Travis Wilson threw four picks, one of which was returned for a touchdown and one of which led to a four-yard touchdown drive.

Unless some really bizarre stuff happens, Utah is probably out of the running for the CFB playoff, but they remain the frontrunner in the Pac 12 South; the rest of the division already has two losses in conference. Stanford-Utah could be a fascinating matchup when Stanford tries to run the ball.

This week: vs. Oregon State, 7:00 p.m., Pac 12 Network

Oregon State (2-5, 0-4 PAC-12)

Last week: Lost to Washington State, 52-31; Lost to Colorado, 17-13

Recap:

 

This week: at Utah, 7:00 p.m., Pac 12 Network

UNLV (2-5, 1-2 MWC)

Last week: Lost to Fresno State, 31-24; Bye

Recap:

This week: vs. Boise State, 3:30 p.m., ESPNU

BYU (6-2)

Last week: Beat Cincinnati, 38-24; Beat Wagner, 70-6

Recap: After playing a relatively competitive game against Cincinnati, BYU played a less competitive game against Wagner. BYU was up 28-0 less than 12 minutes into the game, and they were up 49-0 at the half. Tanner Mangum was 12 of 13 for 237 yards (that's 18.2 yards per attempt) and 3 TDs before giving way to Beau Hoge and Koy Detmer Jr. (seriously). Hoge and Detmer went a combined 11 of 14 for 174 yards.

BYU has four winnable games left, two of which are in gimme territory (San Jose State and Fresno State). If they can knock off Missouri and Utah State, you can make an insane but defensible argument for the Cougars as an at-large selection for one of those New Years six bowl games. I mean, no. But yes? No. Probably still no.

This week: Bye

Maryland (2-5, 0-3 B1G)

Last week: Bye, Lost to Penn State, 31-30

Recap: Canning Randy Edsall seems to have worked wonders for the Fightin’ Turtlepeople. They turned in their best performance of the year against a P5 opponent… in a home loss to Penn State. The loss almost certainly eliminated any chance that Maryland could MacGyver a bowl bid; even if they had knocked off Penn State, they would have needed wins over Indiana and Rutgers and to poach one from Iowa, Wisconsin, or Michigan State. Now they will need to grab two of those games, which, nah fam.

In hindsight, Michigan’s success in shutting down Maryland’s running game was actually more impressive than it may have seemed at the time. Somehow, Maryland’s rushing S&P+ rank is #4 in the country. Against non-Michigan opponents, Maryland is averaging over 5.7 yards per carry, and cracked 5 yards per carry against West Virginia, Ohio State and Penn State. Against Michigan, they averaged 1.1 yards per carry.

This week: at Iowa, 3:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN2

Northwestern (6-2, 2-2 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Iowa 40-10; Beat Nebraska 30-28

Recap: So, I caught some crap from people a few weeks ago for suggesting that Northwestern was only “potentially a good team.” So now, several weeks later, I would like to say I told ya so. After back-to-back weeks of just getting bombed by Michigan and Iowa by a combined score of 78-10, Northwestern needed Nebraska to fail on a two-point conversion try in the last five minutes to survive a really bad Nebraska team.

Incidentally, while we don’t talk about Nebraska very often because they don’t play Michigan again until 2037, can we take a moment here to applaud the fine decision-makers at Nebraska? They fired a guy who delivered nine win seasons every year because he couldn’t seem to win ten games and would occasionally murder a drifter on the sidelines when the waterboy provided the wrong color Gatorade even though we’re pretty sure Gatorade doesn’t make a “red and blue striped” color. So now they have a very nice gentleman who is strong in Do It Right and not strong in Win. Good job, good effort fellas.

This week: Bye

Michigan State (8-0, 4-0 B1G)

Last week: The thing with Michigan; Beat Indiana 52-26

Recap: The final score looks all well and good, but this was a five point game with five minutes to play. So, if you’re keeping score at home, that’s five straight games in which Michigan State’s opponent has been within a touchdown in the fourth quarter: Central Michigan, Purdue, Rutgers, Michigan, and Indiana.

This week: Bye


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