Upon Further Review 2015: Defense vs MSU

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FORMATION NOTES: Michigan had a new thing for MSU's heavy sets. This lineup has Wormley, Godin, Glasgow, and Henry from top to bottom on the line with RJS lined up as a linebacker. Bolden is acting as the SAM with Gedeon the other ILB:

That is the first time this year we've seen four true DL on the field at the same time. Another example, this time with RJS rolled up to the line:

They also did this, which I called 7-2 bear:

This was the TD on which RJS got bear-hugged; it did not come out again.

PERSONNEL NOTES: Aside from the occasional 4-4 mentioned above it was the usual rotation on the defensive line with one exception: I don't think I saw Charlton out there at all save for one buck snap. RJS got every other snap on which there was a buck—M lifted the buck in their dime sets.

Morgan played every snap. Ben Gedeon got most of the game; in the first half he was the third linebacker when M was in base personnel. After Bolden was ejected he was the guy lining up next to Morgan even after Ross became available in the second half. In the brief period between Bolden's ejection and the end of the first half, Allen Gant got a few snaps. Gedeon looked good.

Secondary was close to the usual with the notable exception of Jourdan Lewis shadowing Burbridge around the field after the first series of the game. To be honest I don't know what the Clark/Stribling breakdown was because they were peripheral, but I'm pretty sure Stribling got the rest of the snaps after Clark blew his coverage on MSU's second TD. Dymonte Thomas was the dime back.

[After THE JUMP: run run throw at Lewis, punt or repeat]

asdf

I don't feel this is going to be super illuminating.

No. There's less to explain about this game than most. There were only three ways MSU was productive on offense:

• Heavily contested fades almost always at Jourdan Lewis
• Ref disasters
• A massive Delano Hill bust induced by a terrific play design

Aside from a few seven yard runs and a trickle of underneath passing that was literally it. You all saw the Lewis/Burbridge matchup live; you saw Michigan's DL stone the MSU run game; you saw the fullback wheel. That's about it.

Lewis was terrific/awful.

In the aftermath of this game there were a number of hot takes about Lewis's performance. I wouldn't say they were close to a majority but there was an undercurrent of discontent at his performance. I don't get that at all, and the grade you're about to see for Lewis is going to be massively positive despite the fact that Burbridge crested 100 yards.

This is a good opportunity, then, to talk about how I grade coverage. My basic philosophy is that if the offense does everything perfectly you get beat. Your job as a corner is to make life as difficult as possible and take advantage of mistakes. If you make things difficult and they still hit it, I'm going to give you a push or a small positive and increment the coverage metric. If you allow the opposition a relatively easy completion, that's a paddlin'.

This is the kind of thing I will neg:

The spectacular catch was not necessary there because the receiver had gotten sufficient separation to make a catch without a defensive back bothering him.

This is the kind of thing I'm going to turn into an unironic Good Job Good Effort kid on:

That's because the number of throws that result in a catch there is very small. Sean McDonough loses his mind when that's complete and he is not wrong. The window is essentially just that throw. Lewis is in position and has the subtle arm-hold that never gets called. If Burbridge does not get hit in the chest he is attempting to make a one-handed stab; almost all of the time that Lewis coverage results in incompletions like this:

Spielman started going on about how Burbridge needs to go up with two hands, which is all well and good if the defensive back hasn't prevented you from doing so. That was +1 instead of 2 because I thought Lewis got beat for a moment there and didn't have a play on the ball; he still forced an incompletion, so that's a plus.

I gave this a +0.5 because the window Lewis gives here is very small and he gets a rake at the ball:

If you're in position to bat at the ball or make a catch difficult, as Lewis does there, I am going to (+0.5, cover +1) the play.

Frequently you'll frustrate the opposition and force incompletions just by your presence, whether it's by getting hit in the back with the football or turning the opposition's catch attempt into a diving circus thing:

I'm fine with that, for the most part. It is not ideal; against 120 FBS teams if that's the kind of thing you're giving up you are going to give up ten points, max.

These are all the reasons that Lewis came out okay on almost all of the completions he suffered, and then when you add in incredibly tough PBUs like this…

…you have an All American type CB. Which he is.

You can disagree with that philosophy and probably should if you are talking about the NFL. In college I think this is on point. Michigan just happened to run into a first-round NFL draft pick QB/WR battery. And even then every first down was a war.

Get your head around, though?

I don't think Lewis had time to do so on most of those throws. They were fades but Cook was throwing them so fast that if Lewis tried to find the ball on most of them they were going to be on top of him before he could locate the ball. If he tried that he loses the opportunity to SHORYUKEN and gives up more completions than he actually did.

I think it's time for a

CHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH

Well done.

argh

Anyway: yes, I graded Lewis as da gawd.

RPS doesn't generally go higher or lower than +/-3 but if you want adjust that number down for whatever your personal preference is for the FB wheel, go ahead. I explained the potentially controversial Lewis number above; FWIW, PFF had him +1.8 in their system, which seems to have an amplitude about 1/2 to 1/3rd as large as mine. They kind of agree but were harsher on completions given up.

Other than that, big positives for the DL won't surprise on a day where MSU's ground game had a long of 11, that facilitated by a hold, and a mode of 2.

What's with the big negative for Clark?

Clark blew an assignment, as Michigan is in cover three and he bites on a route that two other defenders are in position to cover.

If that happens in man that's one thing. Getting beat is a fact of life. In a zone like this you should never find this guy over the top on this route. Again, pretty sure he got yanked for the duration after that play.

But Cook had a zillion yards. These grades are too high.

He did, but we should credit 74 of those to Dantonio and Delano Hill. When he was throwing at guys Michigan was trying to cover it didn't go nearly as well, and it should be noted just how hard the things Cook was doing are. Every once in a while he would lose his mechanics and throw something well off target. For every one of those there were four or five near-perfect balls.

PFF in the aftermath of this game and Indiana:

3. Michigan State’s Connor Cook is playing like the best quarterback in the nation right now.

Cook can be frustrating at times, because he leaves too many throws on the field. He’s picked the right time to hit form, though, grading at +22.3 over the past three weeks — the highest grade in the country. He and wide receiver Aaron Burbridge (+18.6) have formed one of the most dangerous duos in all of college football, and it’s propelling the Spartans on their way towards a must-win game against the Ohio State Buckeyes on Nov. 21. Now that the offensive line is getting healthy again, this is one of the better offenses in the country.

That latter bit is false—MSU could barely run against Indiana—but I have to concur with their take on Cook. If I charted him in this game he probably would have had double-digit DOs, many of them off his back foot in the face of pressure. I don't have to tell you how difficult many of the things he made look easy are; you have seen Michigan try to go deep time and again this year without any success.

If you have a philosophical disagreement, that's fine, but this has been the way I do things forever and I think it's more reflective of performance than dinging guys when they get an incredible throw and catch on their face.

Ref disasters, you say?

Yeah. I didn't read Seth's post last week because I wanted to go into the tape review without a preconceived notion about the calls; while I have some quibbles the overall take I support. This game was the worst-officiated game Michigan has played in since at least the Alamo Bowl against Nebraska, and the vast majority of missed calls went against M.

I did find a couple things that went Michigan's way that I missed live. The refs missed a false start on Michigan and MSU got a very weak OPI call that ended their attempt at a one-minute drill before it began. Other calls that I was irritated at live were justifiable. (One: apparent interference on a Karan Higdon dumpoff was actually behind the LOS, where PI does not exist. Two: the Henry personal foul for a flop on the pile may have been simultaneous with the whistles but IIRC I've seen that call before even on a live ball. Gratuitous pile jumping may be a PF no matter when.)

Those paled in comparison to blatant missed call after blatant missed call that went against Michigan. I mean, FFS:

That missed call is a 34-yard swing, as MSU gets a 19-yard completion instead of being sent backwards 15. (The refs would miss a second blatant block, this one on Lewis, later in the game. That was still incomplete as Lewis got tangled up in Burbridge's legs and didn't have much impact on the game.)

Later in that drive MSU would have an interception overturned on a nonexistent holding penalty on Lewis. Watch Lewis put his hand on Burbridge's hip and try to find any semblance of a jersey tug:

Never happened; Burbridge trips over his own feet, possibly after brushing Lewis's legs.

FFS:

You just cannot miss a holding call on which a relevant force player is literally being hugged. That is especially grating given that Michigan saw second and goal from the four turn into first and goal from the 18 on a far less blatant hold. Later a deep Burbridge completion would be facilitated by an outright tackle of Chris Wormley. 

That's already awful, and then there were brutal calls on the other side of the ball we'll address tomorrow. It was incompetent and lopsided.

There were three ways for Michigan to win this game: catch the punt snap, get even refereeing, and have Rudock hit one of the several opportunities for big plays he was handed. M went 0-fer. MSU fans will no doubt construe this as whining, but when the above things happen in addition to a targeting call so outrageous as to send the national media to their change-this-rule soapboxes you have to address it.

I might have a quibble with the pressure metric as well, but I am confused.

Michigan's ability to get to Cook was odd in this game. Michigan struggled early. Part of that was MSU rolling out effectively, but on a number of throws Cook had forever to throw. By the middle of the game I didn't have a lot of pressure metrics at all since Cook started throwing those fades so fast that it wasn't realistic to get to him.

Late, though, Michigan beat the doors down. Late Michigan annihilated Kody Kieler. MSU's final drive saw Cook under constant pressure, usually because Kieler had just been whipped. Both Wormley and Cook went to work, with Wormley nearly sacking on a short completion to the tight end and then Henry with a cat-quick spin move:

This was immediately followed by a BG-esque power edge rush that forced a prayer:

The critical Henry sack was a blitz on which the RG was exploited, but the rest of the late pressure was Michigan doing it with a three man rush. Possibilities:

• random chance
• MSU was hiding a clear deficiency and ran out of ways to do so
• MSU's OL got worn out faster than Michigan's DL

Don't sleep on that third.

This was not like previous MSU games on the ground.

It wasn't that different in the first three quarters. Michigan's pattern under Hoke was to hold onto the Alamo despite the offense going three-and-out every time until the fourth quarter, whereupon the floodgates opened. Last year not so much. Last year M got killed; this year they did the killing.

Despite the numbers this was slightly more competitive than previous outings had been. MSU was usually able to get across the line of scrimmage. They were not able to do much other than that. Every once in a while one of the DTs would get blown outby a double or the RB would fluke/effort his way through a play that had been 95% defeated and MSU had a successful run, by which we mean seven yards. Most of the rest of the day:

Michigan was winning at least one block on every play and usually a few. When guards tried to single Michigan DL they consistently lost a yard or two of depth, resulting in all those runs where the MSU running back got to the LOS only for question marks to erupt from his head because there was nowhere to go.

MSU was good enough to not get overrun like several other Michigan opponents, so the back would get hit by one guy at or near the LOS instead of a guy in the backfield or all the guys. Michigan had only 4 non-sack TFLs, but on the other hand when MSU tried to run on short yardage they were throwing away downs.

Even the doubles that M simply could not hold against last year were usually ineffective. MSU came out in the second half determined to double both DTs and get some movement, but that did not so much happen.

This was a major turnaround from last year, when Michigan got their asses kicked. And except for a brief period when Kieler came out, this was an even matchup on the injury front. Jack Allen was out; Mario Ojemudia was out. Conklin and Kieler didn't seem to be hampered by their injuries—Conklin in particular did not get beat all game in pass protection IIRC.

Michigan's ability to put a 300-pound guy on a tight end continues to pay dividends. Whether it's Henry or Wormley, Michigan is defeating those blocks frequently and thoroughly. Here's Henry on MSU's opening run snap crushing a downblock to the point where the pulling G can't get through the gap, let alone the back:

MSU unwisely loaded up on a key third and short attempt late; Wormley slid over for a matchup against Lyles again; again it was a total blowout.

Henry extended that drive with the personal foul but that was an excellent example of who the manballers were in this matchup. MSU had no chance in hell on short yardage.

The RPS number irks me as well.

Again, if you want to give –zillion for the fullback thing I get you. I think it is a combination slanting heavily towards individual personal minuses.

As a deep third safety who got beat for 74 yards by a fullback, Hill took the brunt of this. Especially given the ferocity of Michigan's defensive front he should never be this close to the LOS; Michigan has veritably designed its defense around the idea of a super deep middle safety. Then he compounds an already very large problem by trying to punch the ball out when he can certainly get a diving tackle in and get the FB down at the 10 or 15. With this defense and MSU's lack of a run game that is very much a fighting chance to hold MSU to 3 points. Instead it ends up at the one and things are academic from there.

Credit to the playcall, certainly, but this should have been a 20 or 30 yard gain even considering.

The rest of the game was a matchup between Michigan's new safety blitz package, which they timed almost perfectly the whole game, and MSU's ability to avoid pressure with rollouts.

MSU had a series of rollout passes early on which the outside WRs would run "switch" routes of various descriptions. On switch routes the WRs will—surprise—switch.

Full on run-and-shoot switch routes are post-snap reads for the QB and WR that are super complicated. It looked like MSU wasn't doing that but rather had a series of switch variants on which the WRs had pre-snap assignments. These generally worked. M did not have edge pressure and switch is very good against man. As a result:

That didn't work out but should have. MSU ran a half-dozen of these early and then went away from it. I might have gone back to the well there in the second half just to check, because Michigan never really got a grip on it.

On the other hand, Michigan employed a series of late shifts and excellently-timed blitzes. It felt like M had the MSU snap count down more than vice versa. It wasn't a blowout in anyone's favor like previous M-MSU games, but I thought "nice timing" to myself far more when Michigan was on D than O; MSU tipped a few of their twist blitzes while Michigan generally got it right when they moved late.

Several MSU plays were crushed not only by Michigan DL play but preparation; an attempt at a third and short jet sweep was so thoroughly wrecked that an unblocked(!) Jabrill Peppers had nothing to do but sit and watch RJS make a TFL:

That was doomed from the drop.

We liked Gedeon? I want to like Gedeon? Liking Gedeon makes me like 2016 more, and  already like it a lot.

Yes. Almost the only truly new information we got in this game came in the form of Ben Gedeon, thoroughly competent linebacker. MSU was able to test Michigan linebackers from time to time; Gedeon did well, consistently. This is pretty friggin' good right here:

Takes a hit, moves on, takes another hit, gives ground but still forces it back.

On the next play he'd avoid a cut block and keep his feet to make a near-TFL:

This was not a real tough matchup for him since MSU all but completely avoided passes that a linebacker could be relevant on. MSU's OL was also not proficient at getting out to him. But his instincts were good and he demonstrated the physical ability he's been reputed to have. An encouraging first step.

Where did Charlton go?

I think he only got one D snap, that at buck. And that makes a lot of sense. Michigan does not want to play Marshall for whatever reason. They've got more depth at DE. Charlton has the skillset for buck, and Michigan is going to need to find a buck for next year. Theory: they moved him, they plan to play him, this game was not the time to do so, we see him have a significant role against Minnesota.

Heroes?

Lewis, Wormley, Henry, Hurst, Glasgow. Morgan. Gedeon.

Maybe not so heroic?

Hill got burned on the 74-yarder; Wilson had a number of struggles; Clark got burned on the 30-yarder.

What does it mean for Minnesota and beyond?

Lewis is far too small for the NFL. RIGHT. I MEAN SERIOUSLY.

The coaching mismatch is over. M was on par or even a bit better in this game even considering the FB wheel. M had similar opportunities on offense that M just was not able to take advantage of, but that's another post.

Par for the course on the line. MSU did not turn out to be much of a challenge. This was supposed to be the big validating game in which they proved they were masters of the universe or just pretty good. Not so much after Connor Cook was caught pleading with his team to run the ball just a little bit most of the way through a game against Indiana.

But they did punch 'em in the punchy parts. One bonus thing we got this week was straight up pass rush from Wormley and Henry against Kieler.

M got hit for a big play because of a safety error for the first time in a long, long time. Something to keep an eye on; wonder if that happens if Hill and Wilson have their roles reversed there. Wilson is boring; maybe not.

Royce Jenkins-Stone is a legit starter. He's the Rondell Biggs of this line now and I do think he's a dropoff from Ojemudia but things could have gone so much worse there. That neither RJS or Ojemudia got a redshirt is a huge Hoke facepalm.

Michigan can breathe a little easier about linebacker next year. Gedeon played very well in his first extended time. I'd like to see him continue to play significant minutes since he seems at least on par with Bolden and will be a critical new starter for a defense replacing very little other than LBs in 2016.

Keep an eye on Charlton at buck. Moving him conveniently slots one Rashan Gary (should Michigan be so fortunate) into the frighteningly oversized DE rotation next year, and plugs one of the other holes M has.