Previously:Hoops Preview Podcast, MGoRadio 1.6 (wsg John Gasaway)
This was sorely missed last year.
Basketball season is nearly upon us. Unlike previous years, it isn't a much-needed respite from a miserable football campaign, and instead should serve as a delightful second helping of good sports feels as we head into the winter.
As Michigan learned the hard way in 2014-15, it all starts with the point guard in John Beilein's system. Derrick Walton is healthy again after a foot injury derailed and then prematurely ended his sophomore season; now he's poised for the patented LaVall Jordan second-year leap a year later than expected. Spike Albrecht is recovering from surgery on his hips but should be a full go early in the season, giving the Wolverines a starter-quality backup.
This is where the turnaround starts.
[Hit THE JUMP.]
Derrick Walton
Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog
Year: Junior
Measurables: 6'1", 190
Base Stats: 33.3 MPG, 10.7 PPG, 32/34/82 2P/3P/FT%, 57 assists, 35 turnovers
Key Advanced Metrics: 21.4% usage, 98.1 ORating, 18.8 assist rate, 17.6 turnover rate, 16.7 defensive rebound percentage
I just listed a bunch of Walton's sophomore statistics, which you can now ignore, because the foot injury that ultimately ended his season plagued him throughout 2014-15. One of Walton's best attributes—his ability to get to the hoop and finish strong—was taken away by the injury, rendering much of his offensive game ineffective.
That shouldn't be the case this year. Walton looked to be on the path to stardom after his freshman year, when he proved an excellent complement to the scoring duo of Stauskas and LeVert, able to drill spot-up jumpers and efficiently run the pick-and-roll when called upon. His inability to do the latter last season was a product of injury, not regression, and Walton should be even better attacking the basket as an upperclassman.
A healthy Walton should also be a boon to Michigan's transition offense; 35% of his freshman-year assists came on the fast break. That number could go even higher given the area of Walton's game that took a big leap forward his sophomore year: defensive rebounding. Yes, really. Especially when Ricky Doyle manned the center position, Michigan had their bigs focus on boxing out and letting the guards clean up rebounds, and nobody was better at swooping in to clear the glass than Walton, who finished behind only Max Bielfeldt in defensive rebounding rate on the team last year.
Assuming good health for both Walton and the players around him, Michigan's point guard is in line for a breakout season. We've seen it from Darius Morris, Trey Burke, and even Spike Albrecht under the tutelage of Beilein and Jordan, and Walton's talent level is up there with any of them. Lest we forget, this is what his shot chart looked like as a freshman (via ShotAnalytics):
Walton is a dangerous spot-up shooter, which will come into play when Caris LeVert and Zak Irvin are driving the offense, and he's lethal at the top of the key if defenders cheat and go under high screens. Add a solid finishing rate at the hoops that should only improve with added experience and strength and it's tough to find a weak spot for Walton offensively.
While he's still got a ways to go to be a superstar, Walton has all the pieces in place to be an all-conference caliber performer this year, and he'll be a significant upgrade over Albrecht on defense. This site still has the same high expectations for Walton that we had last year before injury struck.
Spike Albrecht
Fuller
Year: Senior
Measurables: 5'11", 175
Base Stats: 32.0 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 45/37/91 2P/3P/FT%, 121 assists, 41 turnovers
Key Advanced Metrics: 15.7% usage, 112.0 ORating, 25.6 assist rate, 17.3 turnover rate
If there was a positive to come out of Walton's injury, it was Albrecht establishing himself as not just a steady hand off the bench, but a legitimate Big Ten-quality starting point guard. We'll get his deficiencies out of the way: Albrecht is undersized, not a great defender, and will never be much of a threat attacking the basket on offense. Being a senior is unlikely to change any of those things, as they're all the product of him being a probably generous 5'11".
As a backup point guard, though, it's hard to ask for much more. Spike still has that killer outside shot—he's a 41% career three-point shooter—and his range extends out to a good 25 feet; there are far worse end-of-clock options than letting him pull up from, well, wherever he's comfortable. Albrecht can drain threes off the bounce or as a spot-up shooter, which gives John Beilein some lineup flexibility if he wants to go small and play both point guards at once—something that shouldn't happen often given the depth on this team, but an option nonetheless.
Albrecht is also dang good at distrubuting the ball. He posted the sixth-best assist rate in the Big Ten last season while taking on a higher usage than at any other point in his career; that he also managed to improve his shooting inside the arc and get to the free-throw line more often in the process is a very encouraging sign. Spike's oddball drives may finish in granny-style scoop shots, but those have become surprisingly effective.
While he'll always have his shortcomings as an on-the-ball defender, Albrecht has a knack for jumping passing lanes and turning timely steals into instant offense. He should be among the best backup point guards in the country, and if injury strikes, he won't look at all out of place in the starting lineup.
Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman should also be mentioned in this space as a potential backup point guard; he could be utilized in that role as a defensive stopper in certain situations. He'll be covered in much more detail later this week when the preview moves on to the wings.
Meanwhile, Walton should easily play 25-30 minutes per game, and Albrecht should absorb whatever minutes Walton isn't playing at the point and a few more here and there when one of them moves off the ball. Michigan has two excellent, experienced options at the point. Walton's return to full health is right up there with LeVert's return from injury in importance to this team's success.