Moving The (Stati)Sticks: Week Six

[Upchurch/MGoBlog]

You’re excused if you had to rub your eyes and check the scoreboard to see if it really happened. Joe Kerridge is no stranger to big plays, but having them come on offense instead of special teams is novel. That’s not a condemnation of his talent, but rather a reminder that before this season these things just did not happen. Harbaugh called it heartwarming to see a fullback so productive; I call it fun. This offense may not be in the upper echelon yet, but it hasn’t taken that to befuddle opponents weekly. Northwestern stacked the box; the deep safety was eight yards off the line of scrimmage, and Kerridge busted through the line and ran past the edge defender- to the inside, no less!- before that guy even thought about the possibility of a fullback roaring past him.

The annular path of the day necessarily led back to more fun, with the game ending on the “defense” chant Brian already touched on. He talked about the pin-pricks on your scalp and the willful repression of suddenly building tears; you could feel that chant in your bones. It was the first time I’ve felt a true sense of unity with 110,000+ people in I don’t even know how long. Up in the press box we’re supposed to be isolated from that; the goal is to create a working environment, and while the free wi-fi and lack of line for the bathroom is great, the sacrifice is being able to get a good feel for the stadium environment. Not so at that moment. The chant clawed its way up the massive glass panels and poured in through the few open windows, the little rectangular ports of entry for external emotion. It enveloped us quickly and quietly, and in that moment I knew that even if things go south at some point this year we’ll have an emotional anchor to fall back on, our first real “remember when…” moment of the Harbaugh era.

Right now, though, there are no indicators that things are going to head south. Bill Connelly’s statistical profile projects Michigan as the winner of every remaining game. The offense, to borrow a favorite term of Jim Harbaugh’s, is ascending. The defense is ranked first nationally in S&P+. Some of the stats from both last week and cumulatively are, frankly, drool worthy. Statistics, like the press box, are designed to fuel orderly and controlled analysis. At least, that’s how they work in theory. Last Saturday was a different story.

[After THE JUMP: I’m running out of ways to hedge on this defense]

The Mathlete’s Four Factors:

Once again, a quick reminder of what the factors mean:

Conversion rate = [1st Downs gained]/[1st Down plays (including first play of drive)]. A three and out is 0/1. A one play touchdown is 1/1. Two first downs and then a stop is 2/3, etc.

Bonus Yards = [Yards gained beyond the first down line]/[Total plays from scrimmage]

This is an adjustment to how I have previously calculated, to account for the plays a team runs.

Field Position = The expected point difference per game for where a team’s offense starts and where a team’s defense starts. Each drive is given an expected value based on the start of scrimmage, all of the drives for the offense and defense are totaled and compared. This accounts for all elements of field position: turnovers, special teams, drive penetration etc.

Red Zone: Points per red zone trip (TD’s counted as 7 regardless of PAT)

Offense:

Defense:

The offense is starting to rip off some big plays, and it’s showing in the way their Bonus YPP rebounded. Beyond big plays, though, the offense’s Conversion Rate is now the best in the Big Ten. When the coaching staff points to the offense as one of the main aids of the defense, this is the kind of thing they’re talking about. They’re moving the chains, and as Greg Mattison said that’s allowing the defense the requisite time to make adjustments on the sideline. I’m not trying to take anything away from the offense here; they’re performing better every week, and being top-five in the conference in all four of the factors is fantastic.

Meanwhile, the defense is starting to sniff some rarified air. The Mathlete sent this in his email with the Four Factors spreadsheets:

One side note. Michigan's defensive bonus yards allowed (1.00) would be the second lowest recorded in the 13 years that I have data for. Only 2008 USC (0.99) is lower. 2011 Alabama was 1.02 and no other team has finished a season below 1.24.

I’m going to ignore the Red Zone factor again (you’ll see why in the Adv. Box Score section). Just let those Conversion Rate and Bonus YPP numbers soak in. This is one of the best defenses in the country; they aren’t busting and allowing big plays, and they aren’t allowing teams to get chintzy yardage either. It’s also worth noting the widening gap in Field Position values; the farther apart (positively, of course) they are the better.

Advanced Box Score

Another week, another very familiar box score. I’m gonna be really sad when they don’t look like this, you guys. Michigan’s defense again faced twelve drives and held Northwestern under three yards per play (2.69), faced one scoring opportunity, and ceded zero points per opportunity.

Northwestern’s Success Rate was 25%, so they did a little better than Maryland. Then again, Maryland’s 13% Success Rate is the lowest I can ever remember seeing. Whether it’s 13% or 25%, being in a favorable down and distance less than a quarter of the time is not ideal for the offense. Northwestern was also trying to dig out of a hole caused by less than ideal field position; their average start was their 20.2 yard line.

Offensively, Michigan only had 10 drives but still averaged 5.43 yards per play, had six scoring opportunities, and averaged four points per opportunity. Their success rate was 49%, while their average starting field position was the 32.7 yard line.

Five Factors:

You are an opposing offense tasked with playing against Michigan’s defense. Should you:

• Borges it up and run into a wall to set up a big play? No. Michigan is ranked first in Explosiveness (which on defense means containing big plays).
• Hand the ball to your reliable back and hope that staying in manageable down-and-distance situations allows you to slowly move down the field? No. Michigan’s opponents are averaging an Efficiency of 28.9%, which is fifth nationally. For reference, the national average Efficiency given up by a defense is 40.1%.
• Play it conservative and wait until you’ve got a short field to open up your bag of tricks? No. You won’t see a short field. Opponents average starting field position is the 25.4, good for eighth nationally and 4.3 yards behind the national average of the 29.7 yard line.
• Hope against hope that a turnover puts you on a ridiculously short field (inside the 40)? No. Michigan gives up the second fewest points per trip inside the 40 at 2.71, and their expected turnover margin is +2.05  (their actual margin is –1).

There isn’t a good option right now. Breaking it down even further, Michigan’s defense is fourth in Rushing S&P+ and sixth in Passing S&P+. They’ve given up a few big(ish) runs; they’re only 21st in Rushing IsoPPP. That’s pretty much it. They’re first nationally in Passing IsoPPP, so you can’t go over the top on this D. Their Stuff Rate of 30.5% ranks sixth, so even though they may give up a couple of moderately long runs now and again they’re also stopping over 30% of ball carriers in the backfield.

Also impressive: It doesn’t make a huge difference whether the opposing offense is in a standard or passing down situation, as they’ve all been pretty unsuccessful. Michigan’s Standard Downs S&P+ is fourth, their Standard Downs Success Rate is sixth, and their Standard Downs IsoPPP is second. Their Passing Downs S&P+ is seventh, Passing Downs Success Rate is 15th, and Passing Downs IsoPPP is third. If you’re good on standard downs you’re pushing offenses into passing down situations, and if you’re good on passing downs then you’re just a good defense.

On offense, Michigan’s doing well. They aren’t in the upper echelon, but they aren’t bad. They’re in the mid-thirties in Rushing S&P+, Rushing Success Rate, and Rushing IsoPPP. The passing offense is fairly similar to the rushing offense in terms of rankings with the exception of Passing IsoPP, which is 80th. That’s a few deep balls a few inches off Chesson’s fingertips away from being a lot better, so that number doesn’t really set off any alarm bells in my mind.

Looking Forward, Looking Back:

There was some interesting movement after last weekend’s games, but nothing earth shattering. Maryland rebounded after their offense fell about 30 spots after facing off with Michigan’s defense. It’s counterintuitive, but Northwestern’s offense actually gained ground after being shut out, while their defense did so after allowing 38 points. I don’t think this points to a flaw in the system so much as it’s indicative of how well Michigan’s been playing since these rankings are adjusted for the strength of opponent faced, but if you have any insight into this feel free to let me know in the comments.

What About Tomorrow?

There’s a good diary entry from alum96 that goes through all of the matchups using the more conventional stats. I don’t want to spoil their post, but there are a lot of strength vs. strength matchups here. Michigan appears to have an advantage in their passing defense; comparing advanced stats shows this plus a big advantage in MIchigan’s run defense versus their rush offense, which is ranked 105th in Rushing S&P+.

Other items of interest: State’s defensive Passing S&P+ is ranked 27th, but their Passing Success Rate is 52nd and Passing IsoPPP is 56th. Not awful, but nothing like the last few secondaries we’ve seen from them. Their rushing defense is also good but not great; they’re 47th in Rushing S&P+, 65th in Rushing Success Rate, and 50th in Rushing IsoPPP.

The matchup simulator tool I like to use varies a little on whether Michigan’s offense or State’s defense will have the upper hand depending on whether you use play-by-play or drive-based stats, but the consensus is that Michigan’s defense is going to eat the lunch of State’s offense. Yes, even the chips.