Previously:Michigan State Offense
Cackle with knowing glee if...
Let's cut to the chase: after watching MSU's defense allow six yards per play against Rutgers, my optimism hasn't abated.
Personnel: Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
MSU's defense is as injury-riddled as their offense. Standout SAM Ed Davis is out for the year with a knee injury; safety RJ Williamson is out for the majority of the season; both starting corners are injured—if Darian Hicks can't go, which seems likely, Jermaine Edmonson will replace him and the backups will be true freshmen.
Base Set? 4-3 over. MSU will stay in their base for most of the game; it's rare for them to even bring on a nickel, which is fortunate for them given their personnel issues.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Man or zone coverage? State is still a heavy Cover 4 team, which essentially functions as man press while keeping the safeties in position to help with the run. Unlike previous interations of the Spartan defense, this group really struggles with the press coverage aspect. Their corners repeatedly missed jams against Rutgers' receivers and Leonte Carroo made them pay dearly.
Arjen Colquhoun, pressed into starting duty because of Vayante Copeland's injury, had an awful game; here he never gets his hands on Carroo, stumbles while flipping his hips, and tops the play off with an ill-advised lunge when Carroo had to hold up on an underthrow:
I don't recall seeing Carroo get successfully jammed all night. While Michigan doesn't have a receiver with his big-play ability, there should be opportunities to hit MSU over the top regardless, especially since State also busts their fair share of coverages.
Pressure: GERG or Greg? This is MSU—they're aggressive with their blitzes, and they'll still bring plenty of double A-gap pressure. This year those inside linebacker blitzes function in part to offset that their DTs are very aggressive getting upfield, which often leaves creases on the interior; bringing the linebackers helps fill those gaps while allowing the tackles to pin their ears back.
Dangerman: Shilique Calhoun is the obvious choice. He's explosive off the edge and will give Michigan's tackles all they can handle when he ends up one-on-one with them. When he's not hitting the quarterback himself, he's often able to disrupt the pocket in a way that benefits the other D-linemen (it helps when, in this case, Lawrence Thomas obliterates a tackle with a spin move):
Calhoun is a serious danger as a pass-rusher. I'm not as impressed with him against the run. He doesn't hold up great at the point of attack, especially when there's help from a tight end or back. Rutgers had a lot of success running off-tackle and Calhoun partly responsible. Here he's chipped by the H-back, who's able to pick off a linebacker after Calhoun is easily controlled by the right tackle:
Add in some shaky pursuit/tackling in the secondary and this success was repeatable. Rutgers ended up averaging 5.8 yards per non-sack carry.
The other guy to watch, and this won't be fun for Michigan fans, is sophomore DT Malik McDowell. He's quick off the line and extremely disruptive against both the run and the pass. His surprising agility for a 300-pounder allows him to jump a gap or two away from his responsibility and still come back to make the play:
There's a flip side to this: McDowell sometimes runs himself right out of the play. I'm expecting Michigan to take advantage of his aggressiveness with trap and wham concepts that'll use his upfield burst against him. MSU's entire D-line plays with this kind of style, but McDowell is the main culprit. A lot of run plays looked like this:
MSU held this down to a five-ish yard gain because they were playing their safeties so close to the line, but I doubt Montae Nicholson stops De'Veon Smith as easily as he brought down this Rutgers scatback.
OVERVIEW
The defensive line is disruptive. Calhoun and McDowell consistently get into the backfield and make plays. As mentioned above, though, they're both liable to have their aggressiveness used against them, and the rest of the line didn't impress me. DT Joel Heath (#92) was a liability on the interior; he can get pushed around, opening up creases that MSU's iffy secondary (in this case, Colquhoun, who's doing lord-knows-what) can't be relied upon to close:
Rutgers had most of their success running power and the occasional counter. Michigan can replicate this and then some.
The linebackers are solid but unspectacular. MIKE Riley Bullough is a good blitzer who reliably finds his way to the ball. The outside linebackers are both good stringing plays out to the edge; neither are major TFL threats. They miss Davis' ability to make things happen on his own. It doesn't help that the aggressive line and unreliable secondary put them in no-win positions on a regular basis.
About that secondary: they're not good. MSU is still running the defense that made stars out of the likes of Darqueze Dennard, Trae Waynes, and Kurtis Drummond, but they don't have the depth/talent right now to make that work. Aggressive Cover 4 defense requires cornerbacks who can get a good jam at the line; State really struggled in this regard. Rutgers had a ton of free releases.
Michigan could be in for some big plays in the screen and short passing games. Tackling in space was a major issues. Here's the replacement for Darian Hicks trying to defend a quick slant:
That is not good. No jam, lost leverage, didn't even make contact on the tackle attempt.
MSU also just plain busts coverages. This is a screencap of a late fourth-and-six throw to the flat. The receiver here already has the first down:
When State tried playing softer zones, stuff like the screencaps at the top of this post happened; that was a simple corner route by Carroo that found him open by ten yards when Demetrious Cox pulled a JT Floyd and completely turned the wrong way.
Meanwhile, this is why Nicholson was benched twice earlier this season before injuries dictated he had to be on the field no matter what:
I think he bit on a flat route that was already covered by two defenders? In doing so he allowed Rutgers' only major offensive threat to run right by him to the end zone. He's made those kind of mental errors all season.
Unless Connor Cook vastly outplays Jake Rudock, which isn't outside the realm of possibility, it's hard to see MSU scoring enough on Michigan's defense to offset the seemingly inevitable breakdowns that'll occur when their defense is on the field. Jim Harbaugh has made a very nice living screwing with opposing safeties until they bust plays; this looks like an ideal matchup for that. Add in the possibility that Smith gets multiple opportunities to rampage through the secondary and it's hard not to like Michigan's chances.