Upon Further Review 2015: Defense vs Northwestern

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New logo. That's very exciting. Got a house on it and maybe some larger buildings behind it, may be on the periphery of a nice town like Ann Arbor where you can buy ramen at 11 PM if that becomes necessary, albeit while wearing pants. You could live in one of those if you had a mortgage.

Wait a second… I have an idea. You could get one. From Matt. He's got a ticket offer going for a Michigan football or basketball game. If you're buying a home or refinancing, he's the right guy to call.

FORMATION NOTES: This is Joe Bolden as the deepest guy and dropping 15-20 yards back before the snap.

"5-0 nickel LB-S"

M ran this a half-dozen times, usually against empty formations. The presumed goal was to get a DB in man coverage instead of a LB. Northwestern could not depend on enough time in the pocket to test Joe Bolden or Ben Gedeon as centerfielders.

Early Michigan ran fronts that were essentially regular even nickel fronts that had the buck off the line in a two point stance:

"Nickel even off"

That adds more flexibility in coverage, I guess? M shelved it after the first couple drives.

And they often showed a front with five guys on the line:

5-1 nickel

Most of the time this featured the two guys on the end stunting inside the guys further inside.

PERSONNEL NOTES: Standard rotations at DL. I thought I saw a bit less Godin this week but they have six guys, all of whom play a lot. IIRC, Jenkins-Stone got every snap at buck until the last two drives when Michigan mixed in guys like Watson and Pallante. Lawrence Marshall got in then.

Ben Gedeon got a meaningful drive in the first half. Not sure if that's just trying to work him in or actual Bolden displeasure. Morgan did not come off the field. Ross got maybe a dozen snaps before his ejection; Allen Gant replaced him for a snap or two after.

Secondary lacked Stribling and was the usual Clark/Peppers/Lewis/Hill/Wilson combo, adding Thomas in dime packages.

[After THE JUMP: Durkin donut #3]

D-picture of fence!

D-picture of fence!

D-picture of fence!

Indeed. Stop me if this sounds familiar: Michigan obliterated the opposing offensive line, causing the quarterback to go full 2013 Devin Gardner even when he had a half second to throw. By the end of the game it was clear the QB just wanted the ball out of his hand. The interception dominated talk about this play, but just look at the poor freaking QB as he releases this ball:

Three different guys are about to sack him.

Also

Also

That last one is less a pocket than a straightjacket.

Michigan isn't getting one guy through. They're getting two and three and four guys through, sometimes via stunt, sometimes straight-up. If they add a blitzer it's one guy and then one guy dropping off to spy on screens or scrambles. The sacks don't quite line up with the reality, and that is that Michigan has one of the most dominant pass rushes in the country.

Oh, and the opposition running game was lucky to get back to the line of scrimmage.

This is going to be pretty much the same as the other UFRs, isn't it?

It was almost the exact same result. The main difference was

the insertion of RJS instead of Ojemudia and now you're going to show me a CHART

Too fast. I feel like Clayton Thorson up in here.

All those numbers remain insane. Michigan is turning everyone they face into the shell-shocked version of Devin Gardner from the 2013 Michigan State game. Every QB, every game. If they can pull that off against Connor Cook it's time to start talking playoff talk seriously.

So, RJS.

Jenkins-Stone did pretty well for himself. I am a little less high on him than PFF was, but there wasn't much, if any, dropoff from Ojemudia. This in particular was a really nice play to string out one of the man pin and pull zones that Northwestern ran:

That's a lot of drive for a DE/LB. Other times he was tested on the edge he was largely superfluous, but he got a little motion, got control of the OL, and flowed to the sideline. He held up well against tight ends and even occasional doubles.

When rushing the passer he filled the same role as Ojemudia and was about as effective. He drove the stunt that got Henry one of his sacks:

He did not have the same organic pass rush ability that Ojemudia had showed over the last seven or eight games, but that's more of a bonus given what the line is doing.

Any other developments that might be relevant moving forward?

Taco Charlton has been the clear #6 guy amongst true DL this year, still making plays but at a lower frequency than the other guys. That changed a little in this game.  Remember how I said that four DL had cracked double digits in UFR and that I expected Henry to be the fifth after Saturday? I was right that someone would, but it was in fact Charlton.

Now, a healthy chunk of that production came very late. But Charlton consistently delivered offensive tackles into the lap of the quarterback, and on a few plays he ripped inside for profit:

He picked up a sack towards the end of the game when he thoroughly overpowered the RT.

I do wonder if they'll start giving him some more time by inserting him at buck. If, say, Rashan Gary (HYPOTHETICALLY) comes in next year he'll probably be playing the Henry or Wormley spot, and with RJS and Ojemudia out the door they'll need some competition at buck.

Also in physical marvels who should have redshirted but might be coming on, Dymonte Thomas had a couple of nice plays late. He had a PBU on a ball that was slightly behind the wide receiver, and then another on one slightly too far up the field:

I'll take that from him. If he can be in the right place on tunnel screens and make throws reasonably difficult he'll be important next year when Michigan needs to replace Wilson.

Let us revisit your silly Glasgow-Mike Martin comparison.

I feel ever more confident in that comparison, thank you. I mean, look at this:

That is a tackle on an outside run. Last NT I saw do anything like that was Martin forcing a pitch on a speed option play. Before that 404 file not found.

Meanwhile Glasgow's added some pass rush to his arsenal this year; a trickle became a stream and in this game a firehose. Glasgow's developed a rip move where he locks onto the opposing center and yanks him down. This wrecked Northwestern's center:

That was the main thing holding him back from being the Full Martin. Martin was a terrific pass rusher from the drop; Glasgow has now rounded into form, even when he's not getting helped out by stunts.

Glasgow was also un-moveable in the run game. Even when he wasn't able to throw the center into a heap of sadness he just ground through him to the POA anyway:

Dude is elite. I would have liked to see him go up against a healthy Jack Allen this year just to see how much that matchup would have changed. Doubt that happens given the nasty Rutgers injury.

Where did Wormley go?

As the grade shows, nowhere really. He and Henry are both making plenty of plays and are rarely handled adequately. It's been difficult for opponents to add guys to their run game in the hopes it might actually work because those guys are not OL and when you line up anyone under about 290 over Wormley he just shoves them backwards.

He'll do that with 300 pound guys, too. He consistently puts himself on the right side of the line of scrimmage, and that is half the battle right there. Henry does the same thing.

The cost for running out big guys like Michigan has all over the front is generally in pass rush, but with every guy contributing and the stunts getting home DJ Durkin has constructed a defense that has the best of both worlds.

Meanwhile Godin is probably the least powerful of any of the DL save maybe Charlton (and that is a maybe—this game featured a lot of rushes on which Charlton blew his man into the QB), but he is still capable of lining up a nose tackle on third and short and getting the job done:

Again: I have never seen a DL this deep and good.

They converted a couple of third and fifteens and that felt maybe like an Achilles heel?

This is an excellent analogy because Achilles was totally invincible except for that heel, and, yeah, if anyone before Ohio State is going to do anything on offense it's going to come on the slants and crossing routes and drags that have been open enough the last few weeks. Since the opening drive of the Oregon State game Michigan is literally undefeated when opponents try to test their man press coverage deep, but when Michigan safeties (including Peppers) get singled up in man coverage against slot types, they can be exposed.

Both of the long third down conversions were Northwestern hitting Y cross routes against man coverage. On the one above Hill lines up with inside leverage and still loses the matchup to the point where he can't tackle.

Getting Stribling back will mitigate these issues, as that will take Hill or Wilson out of the man coverage equation on the interior. Jourdan Lewis will step in there. No offense to either safety but that's a big upgrade.

Lewis did get beat on a circle route in this game but the mere fact that I decided to clip it is evidence enough of that. If this was 1942 I might have printed a newspaper with CORNER BEATEN FOR NINE YARDS ONCE in WAR-sized caps.

Lewis won't fix all the issues. For one, a crossing route like that is plain difficult for man coverage. On the one Peppers gave up you can see just before the two guys go off screen that Peppers has reasonable position; WR starts going vertically for a couple steps and then goes back to the cross. He knows he's doing that; DB does not, and you get separation.

Peppers did get a PBU in man coverage on a slant early.

His coverage remains one of the things opponents have most frequently tested successfully this year. While he is improving, that is likely to continue.

How do they mitigate these kinds of things? They can mix it up with some zones, maybe, but they way they are playing these downs they are declaring man coverage pretty emphatically. They can back off a bit—the Peppers Y-cross sees five guys in an all out rush with RJS dropping off into a short zone—and give their secondary a guy in a "robber" zone. That could be the best route, as Michigan gets so much pressure that they can probably afford it.

Or they can just let it ride, relying on their pass rush to prevent routes like this from developing consistently enough to move opponents down the field except erratically.

Deep balls seem all but impossible to hit what with guys playing trail position down the sideline spectacularly and Michigan playing a super deep safety who doesn't bother checking run. We haven't seen these safeties tested all year. Thorson gave us a slight window into what downfield throws look like on a speed option play action, though:

Check Peppers getting over the top of that from his starting position. Even when they don't have a deep safety they can get one after the snap. Combine that with the shots we saw against BYU where Michigan had two guys in deep halves with man under them and you'd better execute a 15 play drive if you want to score.

If he's not so hot in coverage than why is Peppers on the fringe of PFF's top ten players in the country?

I think you already know this.

I do but I want the clip.

Fair enough. Northwestern, what are you thinking?

Jabrill Peppers is too explosive to block in space, period, and when he arrives he brings a load. Just after Ross got ejected he drew an OHHHH from the crowd by leveling a receiver. He is going to cause some fumbles this year. In addition to the bits where he blows a guy up, he is athletic and strong enough to tackle guys while getting a rip at the ball in.

Peppers had another speed option destruction; on this one he popped outside the blocker too fast to be contained:

Thorson's not helping NW at all here but that's doomed no matter what. Running edge stuff to the field—the very core of the "horizontal stretch" stuff many spread offenses are based around—is asking for TFLs with Peppers on the field.

Speaking of PFF, who is the lone guy who gets a bunch of snaps who isn't way positive they mentioned in their article on Michigan's terrifying D?

I mean, you know this too.

I DO

Bolded alter-ego, sometimes I just…

I take after Harbaugh.

Indeed. I mean, you don't have to be a genius to figure it out just based on substitution patterns: Bolden is just okay. PFF and I (probably) both have him slightly negative overall, but because of the way UFR grading works linebacker is a hard gig. If you're near zero you're fine. He is near zero, and he is fine.

But as we go over The Five Plays That Were Reasonable Gains of the week, he does pop up a lot. One of the 15-yard gashes was a tough fill, but I thought he made it tougher by lining up wrong, and then when the items hit the fan he runs upfield of a block:

Glasgow got sealed for a second there but then he did his rip/argh/destroy thing and got on his horse; this could be five or so yards if Bolden mitigates the damage by taking a more conservative angle.

Bolden also got shook a couple times by Justin Jackson. On one Michigan cleaned up behind him; on the other Jackson lost his balance and fell. That latter was just before halftime and could have spurred a two-minute drill from the Wildcats if not for the fall:

So that's the bad, but Bolden did a number of good things as well. Here he undercuts a mesh route that comes to him and then contains Thorson when he perceives the route is no longer his:

He had a couple of good scrape-to-hole-hit-outside-shoulder-now-someone-else-tackles plays as well. He hit an OL on a blitz, moved him, and got off for a TFL. Sometimes he loses the plot and tries to do everything himself; sometimes he plays within his responsibilities. That's not changing. It is what it is.

I'm sorry if this is getting repetitive but, I mean… the games are repetitive. (And awesome.)

We did see Gedeon get a drive in the second quarter in place of Bolden. That didn't last; Gedeon didn't do anything that I thought was worth charting.

What even happened on the interception?

Inside Michigan Football had the correct angle, and Ace gif'd it:

Mystery solved. What a ridiculous interception. pic.twitter.com/M8eoAmrwDe

— Ace Anbender (@AceAnbender) October 13, 2015

Note that Lewis has his hand inside the receivers arms before the ball gets stuck between them—despite this being a very good back shoulder attempt there is approximately 0% chance of a completion. Lewis would reprise that technique later on a another pretty well-thrown back shoulder attempt:

You can't play that better. Michigan has still only given up one play of more than 20 yards, that against Delano Hill late in the UNLV game.

Heroes?

Again everybody but above the teeming masses stand Glasgow, Charlton, Lewis, and Peppers.

Maybe not so heroic?

Nobody.

What does it mean for Michigan State and beyond?

If Michigan State puts out hobbled versions of their OL they are going to die. Jack Allen on one leg is going to die. Jack Conklin on one leg is going to die. Kody Kieler… you get the idea. If MSU wants to play these guys they'd better be near 100%.

Ryan Glasgow is one game away from establishing himself as nationally elite. If they get a reasonably healthy version of Jack Allen that matchup is not going to go anything like the way it did last year. I guarantee it. He is playing out of his damn mind. Last year he'd flash talent and battle most of the time; this year he is violently discarding anyone put in front of him.

RJS is a fine replacement for Ojemudia. He's a half step behind, probably. Michigan didn't experience a dropoff to him.

Underneath coverage remains the weak spot of the D. Peppers can be had; the safeties can be had. Not all the time and you'd better pray if you want those Y cross routes to work before the pocket implodes, but you can move the ball a bit by dinking and dunking.

If you're going to hit a big play against this D it is going to be a spectacular contested catch. M is playing a deep safety with zero run responsibility, sometimes two, and their corners have been playing fades and fly routes perfectly all year.

The linebackers… eh. They're okay. I like Morgan. This is the millionth time you've heard that.

Bring it on.