Preview: UNLV 2015

Essentials

Overview

The Rebels, or at least UNLV beat writers, are entering this game with a modest goals:

Depth will be an issue all year and that makes getting out of this third game healthy arguably more important than the scoreboard. …

The good news is Decker’s injury isn’t as severe as expected. The better news will be if that’s still true Saturday afternoon.

All right then. Michigan's disappointed as huge favorites before, but UNLV enters this game battered and expecting little.

The recipe for a nerve-wracking game or colossal upset starts with a quarterback who can play out of his mind and a run defense that can prevent Michigan from rolling over them. UNLV's starting QB is questionable and their run defense is hilariously undersized. A Hoke rushing offense could probably barf this up; it would be a surprise if Harbaugh's could even in week three of his career as Michigan's head coach.

We're not saying "never"—this is a real preview following a real set of FFFF posts from Ace. But I mean, really really doubtful.

Run Offense vs UNLV

FAKA ME?! FAKAUHO!

UNLV has not had a promising start in this department. Northern Illinois rushed for 185 yards at 4.4 a pop; UCLA went for 273 at 5.8. It doesn't take much digging to figure out why this might not be going that well:

UNLV's defensive line features one returning starter, two 230 pound guys—one of whom plays a lot of DT(!) at 6'6"(!!)—and a dude whose last name sounds like Joe Pesci yelling at you. Only the latter has the requisite size (and RBF) for the major level of competition. Baldwin hops around a lot and they'll often show a 3-3-5 look, but that still leaves you with a 230 pound guy on a 3-man front. Ain't no way around it: they're tiny. They will spend the entire game trying to slant, stunt, and confuse their way into the backfield, because if Michigan latches on to them they're going for the proverbial "ride."

Meanwhile we have no idea who UNLV's third linebacker might be since they never left nickel against the Bruins, instead preferring 165-pound freshman Darius Mouton (who I don't think is related to Jonas, FWIW) even on short yardage.

This adds up to not very good. Ace:

So... this is basically Oregon State but even smaller and less talented. UCLA ran for 5.8 yards per carry on a bunch of stuff that looked like this:

The defensive line got no push, the linebackers were unathletic and often caught up in the wash, and the play usually got to the secondary before initial contact was made. UCLA was able to do this while spreading out UNLV; Michigan should have even more success loading up and going right at them—they don't look like they can hold up against a big, run-heavy team.

Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the run defense?

UNLV has responded to personnel deficiencies by dialing up a ton of blitzes. These leave their secondary somewhat exposed, but that would seem to be the recipe against Michigan as well. M has not displayed much deep ball ability yet, and for the Rebs it's get busy blitzin' or get busy dyin'.

Michigan's half of this is very promising for a certain level of competition. UNLV fits neatly in this box. UNLV may huddle in a corner of this box hoping nobody picks it out. Alas, poor UNLV: De'Veon Smith is coming for your life force.

Michigan will want to build on a mauling game against Oregon State by correctly identifying all the games UNLV wants to play and blasting them into the stratosphere. This won't be much of a physical test; it promises to be an interesting mental one.

KEY MATCHUP: The Front X versus Targeting Correctly. M did a great job in the last game. This one provides an opportunity to build.

[Hit THE JUMP for VARIOUS ADDITIONAL SMALL PERSONS, AT LEAST IN THE CONTEXT OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL.]

Pass Offense vs UNLV

Statistically, this makes zero sense. A week after getting bombed for 14(!) YPA by Northern Illinois, UNLV gave up 5.3 YPA to Josh Rosen. Ace pointed out a few instances in which Rosen missed opportunities over the top, but none of them were unbelievably open—all were throws with relatively narrow windows. On the other hand, NIU QB Drew Hare's line:

Dude's Hennechart was probably alllllll right after that one.

Despite that bombing, UNLV's corners are the strength of their defense. (I mean, I guess?) They coped admirably with UCLA's receivers on deep routes; they gave up a bunch of short stuff as UNLV tried to blitz without giving up immediate touchdowns. Both stand 6 feet tall and should be solid tests for a receiving corps that hasn't helped out Jake Rudock much so far this season.

The safeties are… maybe not so good. Ace went with one of them as UNLV's "dangerman" on defense largely because they were active and tacklin' in the run game but one does not get bombed back to the stone age by NIU without having some major issues in the middle of the field. Also:

I've nominally chosen strong safety Peni Vea, mostly because I felt obligated to choose somebody.

Neither has the pass rush gotten home much. UNLV has three sacks, one of them from a DL. Michigan's OL just pitched a perfect game in UFR protections (eight minuses were split evenly between "team"—ie the protection call the QB makes—and Ty Isaac) and shouldn't have troubles when they are correctly IDing the gentlemen to hit.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan quarterback Jake Rudock has been a bit off early in the season but rounded into a guy who can keep the offense moving by picking out the open guy underneath. Hopefully Michigan can add some of the 20-30 yard intermediate stuff that Rudock made hay with when he was at his best in Iowa City. This is going to be a game in which play action promises to be profitable. Hooking up with a couple of gentlemen for long balls will help morale.

Key matchup: Blitz Pickups versus UNLV's Many, Many Blitzes.

Run Defense vs UNLV

freshman left guard Alex Neale got significant time against UCLA

The health of UNLV's quarterback is in considerable doubt. While Blake Decker's hamstring is fine and the injury he sustained early in the Rebels' game against UCLA less severe than projected, it still sounds like he's doubtful for tomorrow:

It's probably a stretch to expect Decker back for Saturday’s trip to Michigan but on Tuesday he was back on the practice field and the plan is for him to travel and dress for the game.

“It might be a little much for him but we’ll find out and we’ll make a decision on game day,” Sanchez said.

If Decker doesn't play, Kurt Palandech will take his place. Palandech is more of a run option than Decker. He went for 31 yards on 8 carries against the Bruins. That is why this information is being relayed to you in a section about the UNLV ground game.

Either way it does not figure to do much. UNLV continues its high school theme with the size of their offensive tackles, who are listed at 270 and 260(!); no UNLV lineman cracks 300 pounds and most don't even get close. Ace watched these gentlemen meet a power five team, and it was not pretty:

It starts on the offensive line, which is very undersized, especially at the two tackle spots. UCLA didn't need to bring any extra rushers to get pressure on the passer or shut down the run. While UNLV had some minor success getting push on interior runs, they didn't break anything big until well after UCLA had put away the starters. In the run game, they focused on controlling the line and left the running backs to their own devices on the second level; they didn't make anything happen on the second level. I have no other opinions on the running backs based on this game.

Other than that, etc., etc. Wormley and Henry should crush the tackles against both run and pass; UNLV will move the ball a bit here and there when an assignment gets missed or Michigan gets bored, but this projects to be a crushing outing.

Key Matchup: Peppers versus Lots Of Attempts To Avoid The OL Matchup. This will be another situation where the opposing team tries the edge a lot. Should be fun.

Pass Defense vs UNLV

Boyd's going to have a frustrating year

If Decker doesn't play there won't be much of one. Palandech went 4 of 15 for 4 passing yards against UCLA. Despite the fact that WR Devonte Boyd is by far UNLV's most dangerous offensive player, after Palandech's entrance the team quickly abandoned thoughts of getting the ball downfield, and for good reason:

Hennechart is still the worst I've ever seen:

Opponent	DO	CA	MA	IN	BR	TA	BA	PR	SCR	DSR
UCLA	--	3 (1)	1	6xx	5x	--	--	2	--	15%

Yeah... that is not good. No batted balls, though, so that's good.

If Decker is available, things are considerably different. In their opener UNLV put up 30 against a Northern Illinois program that has established itself as the top MAC program over the past decade; Decker went for 8.2 YPA on 39 attempts in that game, including a 64-yard touchdown to Boyd. He could put stress on the Michigan secondary—if the UNLV OL can keep him clean.

The previous paragraph is likely to be moot. Given the nature of Decker's injury, UNLV's prospects for this game even if he plays, and his importance to UNLV's Mountain West season I would be shocked if Tony Sanchez risks him. Why expose a dinged up guy to Chris Wormley if you have a perfectly valid reason not to?

So: tackle on screens and the like.

Key Matchup: Chris Wormley versus Heightened Expectations. At this point Michigan fans kind of expect him to throw an UNLV offensive lineman into the quarterback. Could happen.

Special Teams

UNLV's have been totally unremarkable through two games. Their kicker, Nicolai Bornand, is 4/4 so far this year and was 6/7 last year after wresting the job away from an unreliable incumbent. Entertainingly, he was listed as a linebacker on last year's roster. They are very bad at returning punts.

For Michigan this is mostly about Kenny Allen continuing to look like a functional gentleman at kicker, and maybe Peppers doing something fun, and maybe Brian Cole pillaging a punt or two. UNLV looks susceptible:

Key Matchup: YOU PUT THE BALL THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

Intangibles

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

• Michigan does not issue the entire UNLV defense roller skates.
• Decker plays.
• Michigan is haunted by the ghosts of the recent past.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

• De'Veon Smith rips the beating heart out of a defender and eats it, absorbing his fallen enemy's abilities.
• UNLV passing downs happen.
• Special K is directed to play the Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline 5; –1 for Multiple 230 Pound DL, –1 for Probable Starting QB Threw For Four Yards, –1 for Previous Outing QB Line Of 21/26 For 360 Yards, –1 for HARBAUGH, –1 for Harbaugh Keeps Talking About Tony Sanchez Because That's The Best Thing UNLV Has Going, A Guy Who Was A High School Coach A Year Ago, +1 for Never Forget.)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for Let's Not Lose A Game With A Spread Basically On Par With The Horror, +1 for Let Us Not Crush The Fragile Butterfly Of Hope, +1 for I Would Like This Program To Not Have To Worry About Games Like This Anymore Wouldn't That Be Nice, +1 for Nice Feelings Are Good, +1 for Good Feelings Are Nice.)

Loss will cause me to... pine for the return of Brandon and Hoke.

Win will cause me to... 10-2, baby! We'll figure out the details later!

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict:

Michigan wins, by a lot.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

• Smith doesn't play much in the second half because he's the guy and they don't need him to grind up UNLV.
• If Decker can't play, UNLV gains fewer than 200 yards.
• Lawrence Marshall is spotted on the field.
• Michigan, 43-0