The game heading into UNLV/UCLA last Saturday ran long, so I was greeted to this when the broadcast began:
Note that (1) this is the second time that's happened in two weeks, (2) UCLA has already scored, and (3) UNLV started the game with the ball.
UCLA won 37-3, outgained UNLV 526-237, and it easily could've been worse. UNLV starting quarterback Blake Decker went down untouched on the last play of the first quarter and his availability for the Michigan game is very much in doubt; even if he plays, he'll most likely be limited. When Decker is out of the lineup UNLV is essentially last year's Indiana offense with Alexander Diamont and without Tevin Coleman. Chris Wormley is drooling right now and he doesn't even know why.
Personnel. Seth's diagram [click to embiggen]:
Wormley's got his star now and the heights/weights are fixed from last week.
Spread, Pro-Style, or Hybrid? Spread-to-run. UNLV stayed run-heavy even as they fell behind big, though part of that is because their backup quarterback is almost literally incapable of completing downfield passes.
Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? Mostly MANBALL. Even when running read options UNLV often pulled linemen. Their best runs mostly went inside.
Hurry it up or grind it out? Pretty leisurely pace. They don't look capable of tempo-ing anyone, especially with their backup.
[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown.]
Quarterback Dilithium Level (Scale: 1 [Navarre] to 10 [Denard]): If Decker is able to go, he looked like he had Connor Cook level mobility—as in just enough to be viable and nothing more—before he went down with a muscle pull near his hip. I doubt he'll be running much even if he's in the game.
The starter on this week's depth chart, Kurt Palandach, was utilized as a change-of-pace running quarterback in both their first game and an early drive against UCLA before Decker got hurt. He didn't seem much more mobile than Decker, getting one 16-yard gain on a QB draw on third-and-forever and otherwise getting very little. He also fumbled twice, including this beauty:
On the other—which occurred on the very next drive—he flat-out dropped the ball on the ground after pulling on a read option, but managed to recover it himself.
Dangerman: Wideout Devonte Boyd had a great freshman year and is easily the biggest threat on UNLV; their best chance to put up points is for him to beat somebody deep or get a ball where he's got plenty of space to run after the catch. UNLV got him free early by giving him a running start on a wheel route:
Decker made a great throw there. When he left, so did Boyd's chance at any sort of production. Palandech targeted him a few times but couldn't find the mark. UNLV mostly abandoned any attempts at throwing downfield after Decker went out.
Zook Factor: UNLV coach Tony Sanchez is in his first year as this level after previously coaching Las Vegas Bishop Gorman, which is a very good high school program but also still a high school program. His worst in-game call came when he decided to fake a field goal on 4th-and-six from the UCLA 18-yard line when Decker was still healthy. Let's see how that went:
Not great, Bob. How about when they tried a transcontinental?
Woof.
HenneChart: Decker didn't have enough throws to do a full chart. Of the plays shown (as in not from the first drive) he had a DO, a CA, a BR, and a BA. While he looked decent in limited time in this game, he had a rough year in 2014, completing 58% of his passes for 7.2 YPA with 15 TDs and 18 INTs.
His presence would still be a massive upgrade over putting Palandach out there. Palandach's stat line from this game: 4/15, 4 yards, 1 INT. That is not a misprint. I continued charting his throws well after I stopped charting anything else to see if he'd finished with a Downfield Success Rate of zero. That didn't quite happen, but the Hennechart is still the worst I've ever seen:
| Opponent | DO | CA | MA | IN | BR | TA | BA | PR | SCR | DSR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | -- | 3 (1) | 1 | 6xx | 5x | -- | -- | 2 | -- | 15% |
I kinda felt bad charting it; I also felt I was generous with at least one of the CAs. Meanwhile, here's the BRX, in which the 'X' stands for ARE YOU KIDDING ME:
Yes, he threw that ball underhand, and this is what he was looking at:
Most of the INs, meanwhile, were Palandech chucking slants well behind receivers. He'll be the guy if Decker can't go because UNLV lacks another option—Sanchez has said he doesn't want to pull the redshirt off his only other available QB—and if he's the guy Michigan should be on shutout watch.
OVERVIEW
UNLV stayed almost exclusively in the gun; two of those snaps in Ace came in the shadow of their own goal line:
| Formations | Run | Pass | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gun | 23 | 10 | 4 |
| I-Form | -- | -- | -- |
| Ace | 4 | -- | -- |
| Heavy | -- | -- | -- |
As noted, they're quite run-heavy:
| Down | Run | Pass | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 12 | 3 | 2 |
| 2nd | 11 | 3 | 1 |
| 3rd | 4 | 5 | 1 |
I'm going to keep this short: UNLV is bad. The problems go well beyond the horrible quarterback play from their backup, too.
It starts on the offensive line, which is very undersized, especially at the two tackle spots. UCLA didn't need to bring any extra rushers to get pressure on the passer or shut down the run. While UNLV had some minor success getting push on interior runs, they didn't break anything big until well after UCLA had put away the starters. In the run game, they focused on controlling the line and left the running backs to their own devices on the second level; they didn't make anything happen on the second level. I have no other opinions on the running backs based on this game.
In pass protection, they were shaky, picking up a few blatant holds when guys blew by them. True freshman Alex Neale got extensive time at left guard in this one and it didn't go well at all; on one sequence he got hit with an obvious hold when he lost his man and then gave up a sack on the next play. The rest of the line wasn't much better; the right tackle looked especially vulnerable in pass protection.
UNLV tried a lot of read option stuff that mostly went nowhere; the blocking wasn't great and Palandach had some poor reads. As this was the basis for their offense, things didn't go well.
The passing game was very limited with Palandach in there; UNLV is clearly aware of his limitations. I'm surprised they didn't try to get him some easier throws, though—they only threw one screen with him. Boyd looked dangerous when he ran routes and he did by far the best job of making life easier on his quarterback. The rest of the group had a couple opportunities to haul in tough but feasible catches and couldn't do it.
Michigan can safely focus their attention on Boyd and let the rest of the UNLV offense try to move the ball, especially if Decker is limited or out entirely. Maybe their special teams will help make up for a massive talent gap?
Or not. This should get ugly.