Upon Further Review 2015: Defense vs Utah

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FORMATION NOTES: Michigan spent the entire game in nickel save for scattered snaps in a dime package with three safeties (Hill, Thomas, Wilson) on it. Their first drive they came out in an odd front featuring the buck as a standup end:

Either they weren't happy with the play there or it was just a stunt, because after the first drive Michigan spent most of the rest of the day with an even four-man front:

On occasion they'd do this or something similar with a standup end; this pinched formation saw a hard line slant that got Wormley through for one of his impressive penetration plays:

And that was about it. Michigan spent the entire game with one very deep safety—generally 15 or more yards off the LOS; sometimes they'd offer a two high look but they always came down with one or the other presnap.

PERSONNEL NOTES: Line was mostly Henry/Glasgow/Wormley/Ojemudia. Matt Godin got the most time of any backup, spotting both Wormley and Henry frequently and pretty effectively. Charlton played a reasonable number of snaps behind Henry as well. Maurice Hurst was mostly a passing down sub for Glasgow; he did get a few standard down snaps. RJS saw a little bit of time.

At linebacker it was mostly Morgan and Bolden. Gedeon got a drive; Ross got a couple. Secondary was Lewis/Peppers/Wilson/Hill 100% of the time and a mix of Stribling and Clark at the last spot. Thomas got some snaps in the dime package.

[After THE JUMP: battling a very spread out spread]

I mean okay I guess?

Yeah, I'm generally enthused but this might be a crappy offense they opposed. That Utah they got as much as they did without bothering to use their outside receivers is a little frustrating. Michigan decided they were going to keep one deep safety the whole day; that guy was basically irrelevant.

Utah's yards came mostly on spread frippery that Al Borges thinks is bullshit: QB runs and screens and a few plays off those screens and throws to guys in the flat on which one error is enough to rip off a chunk. Occasionally they did; mostly they didn't. Utah had:

• 3 three and outs
• 2 four and outs
• two moderate length FG drives
• two long TD drives
• a longish attempt at a two minute drill that ended in a Hail Mary

If Utah's about the same team they were last year, when they acquired 5.4 YPA and finished 85th in that category that's just decent—Utah had 4.8 YPA in this game. With seven returning starters including a senior QB the Utes should be better. If they keep trying to play without outside WRs it'll be rough for them.

I mean, I felt that Michigan's DL flat out won their battles. Pass rush was barely relevant because Utah all but refused to look farther than 15 yards downfield; if they had Wilson was going to get knocked out of this game. Meanwhile Booker almost never found a significant hole. That's encouraging against a team that was a pounding ground force by the end of last year.

Many of Utah's yards were on brain farts typical of a first game, especially a first game under a new coach in a new system. Iron those out and we're talking.

But information on that corner battle is not forthcoming.

I have no idea about the second corner spot. Stribling was bad on two early screens but figured it out on the third one, and that was just about the end of his involvement in the game. Clark didn't chart, or even come close to doing so. I think they split time about down the middle but honestly I forgot to check.

Even Hill, who spent large chunks of the game as a third linebacker, didn't register many plays on which his D was tested. He was able to tackle a circle route for six yards on third and seven. He biffed on the long zone read keeper that came back. That's about it.

On the other hand, Jourdan Lewis was targeted three times. One he nearly intercepted…

…and another was that ridiculous catch out of bounds at the end of the second half. He spent virtually the entire game nose to nose with his dude. You are now watching the throne.

There are a couple of big holes in the

HIGHLY ORGANIZED AND EFFICIENT CHART

chart that isn't yet that but maybe someday.

Before I put the chart here, let me say that I'm uncomfortable with the way it worked out because there are a couple of big-ass holes surrounded by guys I graded well. I went back and re-checked those two big holes, though, and I can't see any way to move negatives away. So:

So… yeah. This is much more extreme than it usually is. You'll have some guys up, some guys down, some guys hovering around replacement level. I found that most everyone played well except Ojemudia and Bolden, who I graded out as terrible and not too good, respectively. So let's address those.

I thought Ojemudia was supposed to be the boring reliable one, Mr. Smart Pants.

Ojemudia set out to completely invalidate my take on him from the season preview. When Ace and I did the podcast he mentioned something about Ojemudia making a great play on the fumble that I just kind of talked past because I had no idea what he was talking about, but sure enough:

I don't always credit forced fumbles since some of them are random; that one was +2. He also read and blew up a screen like he knew the playcall.

Other stuff was not so good, and there was a lot of it. As a linebacker, Ojemudia makes a good defensive end.

That was reminiscent of Craig Roh miscast in space during Rodriguez's defensive nadir. (Or every damn USMNT lineup since the World Cup. D-mid Alejandro Bedoya. GTFO.)

Even as a DE Ojemudia was suspect. He gave up the corner on a third and one that could have been stuffed; when given a free run on third and ten he overran Wilson on a QB draw. That gave Utah's very good kicker a shot at a 48 yard field goal Michigan was fortunate he missed. He didn't make a pitch decision tough for the QB, and normally Ojemudia is very good at splitting the two guys trying to option him when he is left unblocked. He missed a few other tackles besides and Michigan's pressure came from the DTs and blitzes mostly.

I do not think this is or will be a typical performance from him. I do expect to see a lot of Lawrence Marshall on Saturday.

What is your thing with Bolden?

He is very up and down. When he's on his horse he can go get it. This is an excellent blitz, one on which he recognizes that the WR motion means he can time the snap precisely:

When Peppers flushed Wilson on one of his blitzes, Bolden was fighting a TE block for a bit until that guy released; Bolden's upfield surge was reminiscent of Jake Ryan, and he forced an incompletion. If he's in Spring Game mode he looks awesome.

But there were a lot of plays in this game I could only interpret as Bolden screwing up. The Wilson touchdown was the most blatant:

Michigan picks off the pulling guard on that play and still has nobody for Wilson because Bolden chases a guy that 1) RJS is running right at, 2) will not get the ball because of that, and 3) also has Hill tracking him in man to man coverage. That should have been a TFL. Instead, six points. (Morgan was not present either but he was less at fault because he's not the playside guy, he was sent on a blitz, and he's trying to scrape to the correct hole when he trips on someone. He got a minus, FWIW, just not two.)

Bolden also whiffed a tackle in space on the opening drive. That was against Wilson, not Booker, and didn't even slow Wilson. On the option he assumed Morgan was not going to turn it back and took an angle that looked like he was pursuing to the sideline; when Morgan did his job his tackle attempt was at an awkward angle and easily spun through. This is a big gain on Utah's last real drive because he runs to one side of a block:

There was other stuff in there as well. Booker got a nice run when Michigan blitzed Gedeon and slanted their line; Bolden did not fill to the backside. That's something I expect from a rookie, not a senior.

Bolden got replaced by Ross late for a little bit, but Bolden was right back in there for the final drive, as you can see in the clip above. I understand that since most of this staff has only been around since January and Bolden was great in spring; here too I expect to see some serious rotation. But I've expected that for years now and no dice.

What is with Henry at end?

Henry at strongside end is a giant middle finger to tight ends. Whenever one tried to block him in this game he was driven yards in the backfield. Henry's pretty good at chucking tackles out of the way, too:

That playcall caught a zone stretch—a constraint for Utah—that could have been very bad if Henry doesn't just toss the tackle out of the way.

But really, it's about removing options. Teams that try to single up Henry with a TE, any TE, are going to lose. That allows Michigan to play a bunch of games with the line. He didn't get much pass rush in this game; we'll see if that's a weakness going forward. I think he'll be okay. Not great. Okay.

And the rest of the line was all good? Does that even happen?

I thought everyone who played the three out-and-out line spots was a positive, including the backups. Wormley had a couple of spectacular plays set up by line slants in the first half. This was the most impressive:

Otherwise he was capable of standing up blocks except one time when he got tempoed and got too high. I still wonder if he'll get blown up by extended doubles from mean pro-style teams. This was a good start on the rest of the world.

Glasgow looked like himself with one major difference: he was much more effective as a rusher in this game than he was all of last year. Scheme had something to do with that a year ago: with Clark blasting his way into the backfield on the regular I think the hope was they could leave a nose tackle at the LOS to sniff out screens and clean up when the QB broke the pocket. This year it's all hands on deck.

Hurst and Godin weren't bad, either. Hurst did this, for one:

On the inverted veer touchdown he also got quick penetration sufficient to pick off a pulling guard. Unfortunately that didn't matter, but that's a plus whenever you get that two for one. He has a very quick get off and will be hard to handle as he develops. I didn't really have a clip for Godin but I thought he picked up where he left off last year as an effective slasher who is very good at using stunts to get to the QB.

Charlton didn't get a ton of time but was able to flash a Clark-like spin move on what would have been a sack if Morgan didn't get out of a passing lane:

If he can do that on passing downs that stretch from SDE to DT looks like it has six quality players even without Mone. Let us pause from throwing darts to say thanks for that, Brady Hoke.

Peppers is terrible! Peppers is great!

Peppers looked like a promising freshman. You of course know about the circle route, and probably remember Peppers getting beat by another crafty route Utah's slot put on him. There was also an instance where he played man while the rest of the D was in zone that gave up an easy first down*. His coverage looked rough.

On the other hand:

Three times in this game Peppers destroyed plays that attacked the wide open spaces he is set to patrol. If Michigan can rely on that, those passes across the middle that open up because of bubble fakes get removed along with the screens; it's kind of a big deal to be able to do that. 

Peppers was also sent on a bunch of blitzes. Michigan's only sack featured one; Peppers pulled out a Brandon Harrison on another. Gotta downshift when you get close.

Peppers played safety in high school had a LB as his CB coach last year, and got hurt. He should start smoothing out the coverage issues as we go along here. This is why I gave him a 4 in the preview; everyone got mad at me about it but even Charles Woodson didn't leap from Bo's head fully formed with an axe in his hand.

*[ASIDE: There was grumbling earlier this week about Michigan's "unathletic" linebackers getting exploited by Utah, particularly Booker, on the edges. I didn't see any of that. I saw stuff like the Peppers play above where linebackers end up chasing someone else's mistake, a couple of instances where M did not react to motion and put themselves behind the eight ball before the snap, and occasional loss of leverage by guys like Stribling. The most edgetastic play Utah ran was a speed option that was an easy pitch decision, and Morgan turned that upfield halfway between the numbers and the hash.

Linebacker is 90% deciding when and where to run and 10% the speed at which you do so.]

I kind of feel… okay… about Michigan's ability to cope with the spread aspects of a very spread to spread and spread offense. Am I having a stroke?

We could both be having strokes.

I NEVER THOUGHT OF THAT

But probably not. I thought Michigan coped pretty well with the various wrinkles Utah threw at them.

Twice Utah got chunk plays over the middle thanks to their screen stuff. On the first Michigan got tempoed, with Morgan yelling at Bolden to cross the formation; the ensuing play looked bad for him but it was a actually a corner blitz with man behind it, so when he jets for the flat that's him covering the back, not biting on a screen he shouldn't. The other one was in fact bad for Morgan, as he does bite on the screen action hard to open up a big gain:

They were killed dead by this arc block variation of the zone read once…

…got lucky when it was called back for a hold on a WR.

Then they adjusted to both these things well. The arc zone read got nerfed with scrape exchanges and Peppers. The thing where Utah kept bringing a WR into the backfield saw Michigan adjust after the first time where they did not. Errors were largely localizable to players instead of a holistic inability to deal with the spread.

Heroes?

All six guys who are pure DL were assets, with Wormley and Glasgow a nose ahead of the pack. Lewis was an eraser. Peppers was on the whole an exciting asset.

Maybe not so heroic?

Ojemudia had a lot of struggles when not forcing a fumble. Bolden did not look like spring Bolden. Stribling had a couple of biffs on the first drive.

What does it mean for Oregon State and the future?

This DL is legit. Tough game against a very good rush offense and they shut it off save for some linebacker errors and a tough day from Ojemudia. The two deep on the interior is 100 dot emoji.

Expect more rotation at WDE. I don't think Marshall was held out for performance reasons; once he's back he will play. Ojemudia will improve. He's not a linebacker in any way, though.

Lewis is lockdown. He's a killer.

Nobody knows about corner #2. Ask again later.

Peppers is highly enticing but needs to develop as a tight coverage guy. Woodson wasn't built in a day.

It's still a 4-3 except it's all nickel. Michigan was about 80% even fronts. They were 100% nickel against a spread. They are a one-high defense that mostly uses man but also runs a significant amount of three deep; early yet but I think I saw some pattern matching on a couple plays. They'll use a dime package with three safeties on passing downs.

I don't know what they'll do about Bolden, but early returns on maybe-this-year-it-will-translate-to-the-field are poor. If they are in a nickel it seems nuts to leave Ross on the bench for 90% of a game, but at no point has playing time seemed under threat for Bolden. I'm not saying that'll change, but I'm not saying it won't, either. If I was Harbaugh I'd be rotating both Ross and Gedeon in at both spots in an effort to find your best combination.