For the first time in years Sparty's walking into this season without a single elite guy in their secondary, but Cook + that OL should more than compensate [Eric Upchurch]
For those just joining us, this feature is the MGoBlog weekly roundtable. This week's question:
Who is Michigan's most underrated opponent? Who is the most overrated?
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The responses:
David:
Underrated: Penn State. I guess this counts? Penn State might be all-over-the-place rated. But for the purposes of this content, Penn State might be the team that I am most worried about after the two rivals. We've previewed and speculated at length about their defense, which was fantastic last year. And they have possibly one of the most intriguing defensive players in the league in Anthony Zettel...who's obviously from the heart of Michigan (argh!). The question mark in Happy Valley is on the opposite side of the ball. Their offense has been 'Michigan minus one year' for the past couple of seasons, so we could be in line for a Michigan 2014 offense...oh. However, IF their O-line progresses and Hackenberg is more ceiling than floor, they have a couple of skill dudes who could make that team rather formidable. Speaking of NOT formidable, glance at their schedule. Arguably, the toughest non-conference game will be playing at Temple. There is a definite argument that they COULD anter the game against Michigan at 9-1. Maybe.
Overrated: Maryland. I've seen multiple outlets predicting this game as a Maryland lean with a 50/50 at best for Michigan. I just don't buy it (Yes, Colin...'buy' not 'bye'). Maryland lost their starting QB who was their top rusher AND passer, 4 WRs -including their top 2-, 60% of their OL which wasn't that great to begin with, and six of their starting front seven. So, if Will Likely can clone himself (and enlarge those clones) and the nation's best kicker can...yeah, I don't even know. I don't think their defense will be very good. Or their offense. I think Maryland could very easily have a rough year. If Michigan can't play well in that game, that will be troublesome.
Ok, that's it! I'm off to Utah!! HARBAUGHHHHHHHHHH!!!
[After the jump: We're bullish on States and things from Utah, bearish on Gophers and stuff]
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Ace:
Underrated: I agree on Penn State. Draftageddon—yes, it's useful—helped us realize they have a lot of intriguing pieces if they can just figure out the O-line. That's a huge 'if', of course, but they at least bring back a lot of guys from that group. If the offense can even creep towards mediocre, their defense will carry them to a good number of wins. The combination of Anthony Zettel and Austin Johnson up front is frightening. Keep Hackenberg upright enough to start looking like the top NFL pick he's supposed to be and this team could make some noise.
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| PSU's defense returned a LOT, but really it comes down to whether or not it's still open season on Hack. [Upchurch] |
Overrated: I want to say Michigan State, but their offense—especially their O-line—is reaching the level where it mitigates a lot of the questions they have on defense, especially in the secondary. Instead I'll go with Minnesota, who's only expected to compete in the Big Ten West because the Big Ten West is really, really bad. The Gophers lost almost the entirety of their pass offense in TE Maxx Williams, their workhorse running back in David Cobb, and the heart of their front seven in MIKE David Wilson. Other than perhaps at running back, they don't have replacements who can step in and replicate their production, and that bodes especially unwell for the offense, which threatens to be even more one-dimensional than it was last year.
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Adam:
Underrated: Michigan's fanbase is probably the least likely in the country to overlook a home non-conference game after the last seven years, yet I feel I'm more terrified than most of BYU. After a year cut short by injury, Taysom Hill returns to wreak havoc; he alone creates the run/pass conflicts that keep defensive coordinators up at night. Before his 2014 season was cut short by a knee injury, Hill was completing 66.7% of his passes, throwing for 7.4 YPA, and rushing for 5.38 YPC. With that kind of versatility it comes as no surprise that Hill committed to Stanford in 2009 before going on a mission trip and decomitting after Jim Harbaugh left. When Harbaugh's doing the blank-look shark stare thing he isn't processing what the person in front of him is asking, but rather trying to figure out how to make his QB more like Hill. In fact, Hill texted Harbaugh to tell him how excited he was to play against him at Michigan Stadium. Harbaugh's response? "I'm not looking forward to playing you, my friend."
Overrated: I'm going to echo Ace and say Minnesota. As he mentioned, Draftageddon is a useful tool for figuring out team's strengths and weaknesses, and Minnesota got weaker in so many areas between 2014 and 2015. Minnesota spent the spring experimenting with a no-huddle offense, but they've since scrapped it; with it went my concern over matching up with their offense. Their secondary does feature two quality players in Eric Murray and Briean Boddy-Calhoun, but I don't think they'll be enough to counter losing the two cogs that kept Minnesota's offense moving in 2014.
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Seth:
Underrated: You guys have already beaten the PSU thing to death and Adam took BYU. I'm also worried about Utah. They're a tough team to pin down because last year they played in a super tough division (Colorado was the only unranked Pac12 South team) plus Oregon and Stanford, yet went 9-4. Their defense got manhandled by the uber spreads. On the other hand they lost at home to WSU. Travis Wilson has an annoying habit of being very good early in the season, then dramatically losing efficiency as the hits pile up. You want to face him the last game of the season, not the first.
Overrated: Minnesota is a middling team in a bad division, but Kill's program is back to that Glen Mason point where he's able to find new 2-stars to play like 3's and 3-stars who can scrape into the lower NFL draft rounds. A fully armed and operational Harbaugh machine should have no trouble snatching one of a Mason/Kill regime's four or five annual losses, but 2015 Michigan is certainly still vulnerable. Is it 50/50? No, but neither am I comfortable giving Michigan more than a 2-in-3 shot.
I'm with David that Maryland is not the 50/50 game it's made out to be. None of their quarterback options are good, their receivers were ravaged, and they are not good at blocking. I think they'll be easier to run on this year, and they have the kind of offense Michigan's defense was born to eat up. Defensively they are bendy until a safety does something stupid, the perfect kind of defense for Harbaugh's mind games to eviscerate. Ngakoue and Likely are problems; teams that go in hoping to test Likely's size end up throwing away drives until they learn their lesson, and Michigan was certainly guilty of that last year. This is a game where the coaching upgrade will make a huge difference. Even on the road, this Michigan matches up very well against them.