Preview 2015: Safety

Previously:Podcast 7.0. The Story. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End And Friends. Offensive Line. Defensive Tackle. Defensive End. Linebacker. Cornerback.

we have very reasonable expectations [Fuller]

So, JARROD WILSON…

Never be too proud to recycle a joke, I say. I know what you animals want. You want the man I've listed on half the depth charts in this preview, most of them at least semi-seriously. You want…

HYBRID SPACE PLAYER: NICKELBACK WITHOUT THE NICKELBACK CONNOTATIONS, YOU KNOW, THE BAND, BOY DOES THAT BAND SUCK THEY'RE JUST NOT GOOD AT MUSIC OR BEING ALIVE

RATING: 4

[Eric Upchurch]

Everyone all together now: the hybrid space player is a reaction to the spread offense. He must be a triple threat, capable of blitzing, playing the run, and covering. He is very very important. They made Charles Woodson into a hybrid space player right before he was the NFL's defensive MVP, because the NFL is basically a passing spread league:

NFL offenses are identifying the nickel corner as a key part of any defense. “This varies from defense to defense, but the amount of your sub package that you play nowadays — because we’re seeing more three wide receivers on the field — your inside player is going to play as many, if not more plays,” Capers says. “You could be in some form of your sub defense two-thirds [of the time].” The number Hayward throws out is 75 percent; Whitt says 80. No matter the math, the point is that the nickel cornerback is as much a “starter” as any other spot in the defensive backfield.

Michigan State's lack of appropriate HSPs last year led their defense to get torched by every decent spread they came across, because said spreads would put their #1 receiver in the slot and run 'em at MSU's inexperienced safeties, who were not cornerbacks. This has been your hybrid space player preview review.

So… JABRILL PEPPERS [recruiting profile]. This is a man that has been hyped to the moon. Tellingly, his coaches aren't trying to put the brakes on. They have in fact shoveled on a little more coal. Harbaugh in spring:

"He’s been A-plus, he really has, all spring. He was just out there taking reps. … A lot of times a guy’ll get in the front of a drill, which he would do, but he would go through the repetition of the drill and I’d see him back in the front again and then again. It’s like, ‘Hey, come on. Jabrill Peppers isn’t taking every rep in these drills.’ But that’s the kind of youngster he is."

Harbaugh again in this fall:

"He's been good, he's been all the things that have been advertised about him. He's a tremendous football player."

The spring game indicated that Michigan had in fact built its defense around him playing HSP/nickel/whatever:

Under Hoke it was difficult to tell who was the strong safety and who was the free safety. That will not be the case this year, as Jabrill Peppers was operating as a lightning fast outside linebacker for big chunks of the game. He tattooed running backs in the backfield more than once.

Peppers barely left that location. When Michigan went to a nickel package they did so by bringing in an extra safety and leaving Peppers over the slot, where he nearly caused an interception by breaking on a quick slant to Bo Dever.

That was the plan last year as well, but even before he got hurt Michigan was forced to adapt. Press coverage was a disaster in the Notre Dame game and Raymon Taylor was out, so Peppers was delployed as a boundary corner in the Miami (Not That Miami) game. (That's a spot he may resume if things don't go well with Stribling and Clark; he has been repping there a bit this fall.)

Miami did people wishing to have any useful scouting from Peppers's freshman year a favor by going at him over and over again on the usually-sound principle that freshmen seeing their first extended action should be slow-roasted until they can be pulled apart with forks. That didn't go the way the Redhawks thought it might.

They did get one completion on him, that a bullet skinny post against zone that Peppers still got a rake in on. His first extended playing time looked pretty damn exciting, and then his knee locked up and it was goodbye season. There are a ton of fascinating counterfactuals from the last year of Michigan football; "what if Jabrill Peppers is healthy?" is one of the best. Does he end up the starting running back halfway through the season? Does Michigan lose to Rutgers? (A: no.) Does Brady Hoke eke out his job at 7-5?

Anyway. That's in the past.

Also in the past is his high school scouting, but other than a bunch of talk and those clips above it's all we have to go on. Also it is fun to revisit, so let's revisit it.

"Peppers is a rare athlete with potential to be great at the next level. He is one of the most talented players I have ever seen at the high school level. At 6-foot-1, and 205-pounds, Peppers has college ready size to go with un-matched speed and explosiveness."

Also

USC coach: "Holy s---, that's him? I've only seen two players in high school with a body like that and both of them are named Peterson [Adrian and Patrick]."

And this player comparison is a damn good one.

"I think his impact on the game [would be maximized by] letting him roam around a little bit and freelance and let him play – an Eric Berry style of safety where they would walk him up. I mean, Eric Berry had 15 tackles for loss.  He is that kind of a player.  Eric Berry, I thought, was maybe the best player in college football a couple of years ago.”

That remains the mission. Be Eric Berry. Or Woodson. Judges will accept either.

I know it's a lot to heap on a dude who's barely seen the field but every indicator from the program is that this gentleman is the real deal both on and off the field. He will start living up to the hype this year.

[After THE JUMP: how many shoes are you wearing stop throwing them]

BACKUPS

Michigan doesn't have another Peppers in the wings. Obviously. Should he get knocked out again—please no—Michigan would likely reduce their nickel snaps and go with a corner-type dude on passing downs, whether that's JEREMY CLARK or WAYNE LYONS or whoever.

SAFETY

RATING: 3.

[Eric Upchurch]

Meanwhile in people you will forget about the instant after finishing this post, JARROD WILSON is a senior and three-year starter. You wouldn't know it because he is the dry white toast to Peppers's Flavortown USA, but Wilson is pretty good. Long plays last year were 1) quite infrequent (Michigan was 13th in 20+ and 7th in 30+ yard plays allowed) and 2) almost always not his deal.

We know this because lots of them were obvious; we asked after the ones that weren't and Greg Mattison respected the assembled media enough to tell us. So when Rutgers hits an 80 yard touchdown, this is what happened from the horse's mouth:

…we called a defense where a safety would be lower than usual to be able to help with the run and we didn’t get inside enough with another defensive back… The guy- we bit on it and they hit. And that’s what happened.

The worst thing I've got for him on a long play is a bad pursuit angle on a screen that went down the sideline. Compared to the decade pre-Kovacs that is unbelievable.

Wilson's worst outings at Michigan came when he got stuck in man coverage on Maxxxxx Williams and when Indiana tempoed the entire defense to death; one is not his specialty and the other is on Brady Hoke more than anyone. Michigan inexplicably pulled him for guys who played much, much worse than him shortly after the Indiana game in 2013, because it was panic time. I don't think that reflects on him.

Wilson is not the kind of guy who is going to be very comfortable rolling down into the box. That'll get him in man coverage, something he hasn't been great at:

In zone he rarely ends up circled on a replay, but PBUs like this are equally rare:

Wilson isn't the proverbial playmaker. Anonymous Big Ten opponent again:

"There's no one that really hits you like some teams so you knew you could get away with going over the middle or going up for a ball because you weren't going to take a lick. Some teams have these safeties that will just kill you, but Michigan wasn't one of them. They did have a guy [Jarrod Wilson] that was around the ball a lot but he wasn't a headhunter."

That's accurate. Wilson does not put the fear of God into guys coming across the middle. He neither MAKES PLAYS or MAKES PLAYS FOR THE OTHER TEAM.

Jarrod Wilson is This Is Fine if the building wasn't on fire.

This is fine.

Delano Hill has his Greg Oden face on [Eric Upchurch]

Peppers is nominally the other starting safety. He'll be in the box the whole time, though. When Michigan plays nickel, which will be a lot, DELANO HILL [recruiting profile] is set to get a bunch of snaps as a deep safety.

Hill was supposedly the leading candidate for the job next to Wilson last year until he broke his jaw just before the season. He missed the first couple games as a result and then bounced from the starting lineup to second string the rest of the season, switching with Jeremy Clark. (Part of the reason he got bounced around: a one game suspension for Maryland.)  In his time he acquired 20 tackles… and did almost nothing I noticed. I have one clip that even involves him, a deep sideline route he couldn't get over to in time:

Not ideal; sophomore safeties in their first playing time have done worse, especially since in a sane world he'd have been a redshirt freshman:

Freshman (2013)
• Earned first varsity letter
• Appeared in one game as a reserve linebacker
• Also contributed on special teams.

But that's none of my business.

Marcus Ray has been very high on Hill for a year now, pumping him up as Michigan's best safety period… including Peppers.

That said, according to former All-American Marcus Ray another defensive actually earned the distinction of the spring’s top performer.  Ray highlighted junior safety Delano Hill as the most consistent play-maker and on the back end and as a strong candidate for a move up the depth chart.

That is a bit hyperbolic, and we know from hyperbolic since we just talked about Peppers. Still, there was a consistent drumbeat of support last year and this fall Greg Jackson also made encouraging noises:

“He has got a bundle of talent,” Michigan defensive backs coach Greg Jackson said of Hill.  “He just needs to focus each and every day, take one play at a time, and practice as a hard as he can.  He can play so many different positions, which is a bonus for us.  When you have a safety that can play dime, nickel or safety it’s great.  You have two guys back there that can do all of those things.”

Moving Jeremy Clark, who started six games a year ago, to corner is another indicator of the faith Michigan is putting in Hill.

If he's mentally ready Hill provides an enticing physical package. He outran a lot of corners when he showed up at The Opening as a recruit and sounds a bit like Ray himself in scouting reports:

Hill is an aggressive run defender with good zone coverage skills; also displays the athletic skills needed to cover inside receivers.  … a tough customer who demonstrates open field tackling skills… His run support is outstanding; will come up and force off the edge while demonstrating quickness filling the ally; is a very aggressive downhill run defender with the ability to move through traffic; displays very good long pursuit ability.

If Ray sees himself in Delano Hill… that would be just fine with me.

Hill should acquire either most of the nickel snaps or most snaps, period, depending on whether Michigan can make the Clark/Stribling boundary corner setup work. He will probably be less reliable than Wilson due to inexperience, but maybe he will make up for it by being able to make plays—something Michigan safeties have not been known for since I've been paying attention.

BACKUPS

[Fuller]

DYMONTE THOMAS [recruiting profile] is another guy in the the Aargh Y U NO Redshirt club, one especially painful because he's a terrific athlete who hasn't yet found the consistency he needs to see the field.

He saw a reasonable amount of time last year, especially late. Like the rest of Michigan's safeties his season was defined by the things he didn't do well instead of the plays he made. In Thomas's case the errors were frequent enough to draw mention.

Here he threatens to turn a first down into a very big play by losing contain on a jet sweep:

That's basic, and he didn't even make it particularly difficult for the guywith the ball to read. He just set up inside.

This kind of errant run fill isn't something we've seen from Wilson or Hill. (Clark was guilty of a couple.)

For big portions of last year it looked like he didn't quite know what he was seeing. He'd run a zone, see nobody anywhere near him, and just kind of stand around instead of trying to adapt his coverage to the situation. On that jet sweep above he waits for the hit and gets sealed inside instead of doing something, anything. He's far behind the other guys when it comes to understanding what the defense is trying to accomplish.

None of that is too surprising since he was a high school running back and linebacker. There have been the occasional blips of encouragement for him. Sam Webb:

While some have labeled Thomas a disappointment so far in his career, I can confirm that the new staff really, really likes what he brings to the table. The issue for him has been the fact that he's been moved around so consistently and hasn't been focused or told to focus on only one position.

Aargh /throws dart at Hoke dartboard.

Thomas's physical skills are not in doubt. He is of course the gentleman who did this en route to blowing that redshirt:

That is a punt on which Thomas hit the ball—with his foot!—before the punter did. If we could just harness that energy into something approximating consistency… man.

Thomas will get rotation snaps at safety and hopefully prove more consistent. While he waits for a shot created by Wilson's departure, look for Jon Baxter to use Thomas as a block generator on special teams. He can obviously do it, and now Michigan cares to try to make plays here. But that's another post.

WAYNE LYONS [hello post] and TYREE KINNEL [recruiting profile] round out the depth chart. Lyons was supposed to be in a battle for the starting corner job with Blake Countess; Countess transferred and Lyons has been taking backup safety snaps. I don't know what that means for the team; it's not good for Lyons. Lyons had a rep as a guy who had great athleticism but tended to get beat deep. If the "beat deep" is taking precedence; time will be scarce for him.

True freshman Kinnel could play some this year without it being a total disaster, but hopefully there's no need and he gets a redshirt. Long term he could be a non-Superman version of Peppers: a hybrid space player.