2015 Big Ten QB Notes

[Ed-S: Bumped from diaries]

Who needs a football fix? Every year I like to size up the relevant QB competition to Michigan in an effort to convince myself that we’ll go undefeated. Please see the following links for the ghosts of seasons past as well as an overview of the general thought processes behind these projections (2010, 2013, 2014). I was unable to post diaries for 2011 and 2012. This exercise is pretty hit and miss but its fun so let’s get to it.

I don’t actually expect anyone to click through to all those links so here’s a summary of the foundational ideas I’ve developed over the years:

1. As far as I’m concerned, the feel good year end rating for a QB is about 140. It’s a tough standard but that’s what the subjective good looks like. Great starts setting in above 145.

2. I treat player skill as a ratcheting riding-a-bike type thing. You don’t just forget what you once “knew” When performance recedes, its because of other factors outside of skill. Therefore, performance must be parsed in order to not over assign skill to a given performance.

3. I strive for an accuracy of +/- 4 points in passer rating. I.e. 131 vs. 135 and 135 vs. 139 are acceptable but 131 vs. 139 is a miss. Below 130 is bad and if I put you in that category and you score at or below 130, I claim a hit.

4. Barring injury, if I pick the wrong starter the a priori assessment carries over to the replacement. More on this later.

5. I use Bill Connolly's RB Rating system to guide my commentary regarding specific players. I had developed a version but, the data streams I needed dried up and his method accounts for most of the factors I did so its good enough for me.

[Hit the Jump for a post-mortem of 2014 QBs] 

2014 Post Mortem

The following table summarizes my comments from last season’s attempt at perfection.

So, 7 – 8 – 1 doesn’t blow my socks off but, bear in mind that I have two opportunities to  be wrong (guy over-- or underperforms my expectation) whereas I only have 1 chance to be right (+/- 4 points of my prediction). In 2013 I was able to hit 10 out of 12 through the strike zone so this is a let down of sorts. But, whatever, predicticating is hard.

I’m taking a pass on Hackenberg because of the depth and injury issues PSU faced last year. My thesis on him identified all of the legit factors against a good performance out of him last year but somehow I thought it’d be a good idea to ignore all of them.  As for the misses, here’s my best at reconciling the gaps. The main rationalizations are Defiance of Gravity (Barrett, Cook), Injury (Brown), WTF (Stanzi, Gardner, Stave, Siemian, Hendrix).

The fact that so many experienced QBs pooped the bed is a severe indictment on the state of coaching in the B1G in my view.

Devin Gardner, man. Dude gave everything there is to give. Two head coaches, 3 offensive coordinators / schemes, 2 position changes, 3 jerseys one of which might as well have been a crown of thorns, an OL that gave up 63 (!!!) sacks in 2013 and 2014, what else is there? Last year sucked on many fronts but seeing Devin go out like that was ba-rutal to watch. I really do believe se could have been awesome almost anywhere else in the country. Seeing him get shit on by so many pisses me off but it is what it is. Devin joins Brandon Graham in MCalibur’s Courage Hall of Fame. Whatever, on to the next one.

The 2015 B1G Noobs

Michigan’s 2015 OOC Opponents

Austin Appleby,Purdue

	2014 Rating: 123.8	CMP%	YPA	TD%	INT%
	Expected Values	0.529	5.768	0.034	0.039
	Actual Values	0.515	5.327	0.037	0.040
	Single Factor Rating	104.3	93.0	109.8	105.4
	Appling unseated Etling but he was a first year starter and the support around him was bad, same as it was for Etling. That pretty much sums up last year's performance. This year the O-line and Receiving corps return virtually intact which helps tremendously. Purdue will need to find a RB but I think Appling will improve significantly over last year. Projection: 130

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota

	2014 Rating: 123.8	CMP%	YPA	TD%	INT%
	Expected Values	0.575	6.895	0.052	0.030
	Actual Values	0.515	7.586	0.046	0.034
	Single Factor Rating	98.0	137.2	122.2	118.9
	Not surprising for a first year starter, particularly a dual threat guy. Accuracy needs to come way up or Kill needs to get him some of those "oh, wide open" type of throws RichRod generated for Denard. The OL returns a  lot of experience but new skill position threats need to be identified. I don't see Mitch breaking through to the upper 130's this year. Projection: 130

C.J. Beathard, Iowa

	2014 Rating: 129	CMP%	YPA	TD%	INT%
	Expected Values	0.587	7.160	0.056	0.028
	Actual Values	0.565	7.011	0.054	0.022
	Single Factor Rating	119.9	126.0	132.5	170.9
	Displaced Ruddock who I consider solid. Showed good decision making (low INT rate) but accuracy needs to improve. The OL needs to fill two holes but the 3 return 69 starts. Skill position players weren't very frightening last season.  An good schedule should help Beathard put up decent numbers. Projection: 135

Tommy Armstrong Jr., Nebraska

	2014 Rating: 133	CMP%	YPA	TD%	INT%
	Expected Values	0.596	7.364	0.059	0.027
	Actual Values	0.533	7.812	0.064	0.035
	Single Factor Rating	106.0	141.7	144.6	116.8
	Improved decision making (INT rate) significantly but accuracy (completion pct.) is lagging significantly. Still has a ways to go on decision making. Massive losses around him with Abdullah on top of that list. The OL needs to replace 3 starters and the Husker's top receiver last year is gone. There's a regime change too which will probably ask Armstrong to be more of a passer. Tough to see Tommy doing much with all that but his running ability should help him avoid INTs, unless he's coached otherwise. Projection: 130-135

Nate Sudfeld, Indiana

	2014 Rating: 126.6	CMP%	YPA	TD%	INT%
	Expected Values	0.582	7.038	0.054	0.029
	Actual Values	0.605	6.892	0.036	0.018
	Single Factor Rating	137.1	123.7	108.7	190.7
	Nate injured his shoulder last year and the Hoosiers needed to replace some good WRs in Hughes and Latimer from 2013. This year, the OL is very experience but they lose Tevin Coleman which is kind of a big deal. On top of that the WR corps is gutted. Still, Kevin Wilson's offense can put up numbers and without Coleman as a crutch, the schemes might be more pass oriented. Schedule looks favorable. Taking a wide range here. Projection 135-140

Jake Rudock, Michigan

Wes Lunt, Illinois

	2014 Rating: 141.6	CMP%	YPA	TD%	INT%
	Expected Values	0.616	7.803	0.066	0.023
	Actual Values	0.635	7.315	0.058	0.012
	Single Factor Rating	150.2	131.9	137.3	219.6
	The CMP% and INT% are great the other two factors are heavily influenced by the support around the QB. Josh Ferguson looks like a good compliment out of the backfield and the WR returns intact. The OL needs to fill some holes and improve upon their performance from last year. The schedule is fairly easy so Wes should be able to do some damage. Projection: 140

Joel Stave, Wisconsin

	2014 Rating: 113.2	CMP%	YPA	TD%	INT%
	Expected Values	0.551	6.355	0.043	0.034
	Actual Values	0.534	6.553	0.044	0.049
	Single Factor Rating	106.3	117.0	118.7	89.0
	Feels like I'm falling into a trap again here but I don't understand how/why Stave's numbers fell off a cliff last year. Maybe he lost his mojo and started pressing to hard when Tanner McEvoy won the job from him. Not sure but I cant think of anything else. Wisconsin loses an awesome RB and needs to fill some holes on the OL bit like, that's what they've been doing for 15 years so, like, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, homie. BQG West schedule should prove to be quite favorable. They have a new coach but Chryst is as Wisconsin as it gets. The drop off and regime change give me pause but I'm going to go ahead and just push play. Projection: 135 - 140

Connor Cook, Michigan State

	2014 Rating: 149.4	CMP%	YPA	TD%	INT%
	Expected Values	0.634	8.201	0.072	0.020
	Actual Values	0.581	8.805	0.066	0.022
	Single Factor Rating	126.7	161.1	147.2	170.0
	Connor is conundrum to me. His greatest asset is avoiding mistakes as evidenced by the ridiculously low INT rate two years running but his completion percentage is lagging big time. I've chalked this dichotomy up to good decision making (i.e. throw the ball away or tuck and run rather than force it into a tight spot) but its hard to say. The YPA and TD rate indicate that he does a good job getting the balls to his play makers (read: Lippett) and they take care of the rest. That's the QBs job, and that's what Cook does.  The low completion percentage bothers me though. It makes me wonder what guys like Nate Sudfeld, Wes Lunt, or even Jake F. Rudock would look like if they were in the pocket for MSU. It doesn't matter, it's Cook's gig and he's doing a great job. This year MSU's OL should be  better than it was last year but they need to find a replacement for Langford and Hill at RB. It seemed like they had a good one in Delton Williams (who might be better than both Hill and Langford) but he was busted/suspended for brandishing a gun in public. He's since been reinstated so I bet he's the guy who gets the lion's share of the carries this season -- Bill Connolly's metrics are a fan, heads up. At WR MSU needs to find a replacement Mumphrey and cope with the loss of Lippett. I think they can do that between the likes of Kings, Burbridge, Arnett, and Kilgore. That said,  I suspect Connor will have to do more on his own particularly early in the season. Projection: 140

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State

	2014 Rating: 109.4	CMP%	YPA	TD%	INT%
	Expected Values	0.542	6.161	0.040	0.036
	Actual Values	0.558	6.151	0.025	0.031
	Single Factor Rating	116.7	109.1	94.3	124.4
	Hack's 2014 campaign was a nightmare. The team had to transition into a new coaching regime and the learning curve that comes with it. On top of that he lost a great receiver in Alan Robinson and had *no* support around him. No OL, no RB, no WRs. Nothing. Then people started getting hurt and the scholarship reductions PSU was dealing with really had their impact then. He was sacked 44 times which is more that Gardner got hit in 2013. Those hits have an affect; one which I don't think Gardner ever recovered from. I expect significant mean reversion here because he's is just too good and this year he has everyone around him coming back--for better or for worse. I'm doubling down on Hack; I think he's the best pocket passer in the conference. Someone please figure out a way to break that Rilo Kiley file... Projection: 140

JT Barrett, Ohio State

	2014 Rating: 169.8	CMP%	YPA	TD%	INT%
	Expected Values	0.681	9.241	0.089	0.012
	Actual Values	0.646	9.025	0.108	0.032
	Single Factor Rating	155.2	165.4	202.1	122.7
	For me, JT Barrett should be the guy for the Buckeyes this year. Obviously Cardale did aiight (/s) but Barrett had better accuracy over more attempts and is a better runner. Barrett did well last year and still has room for improvement. The INT rate is still pretty high but it was at a reasonable level for a first year QB. Based on my previous work, I estimate that a properly executed and coordinated spread-and-shred can enhance a  QB's passer rating by 15-20 points; that's what it was worth to Denard's numbers.Take it away and Barrett’s still a kick ass QB. Whatever though guys, it'll never work in the B1G. With all the talent OSU has coming back from last year's team and with Braxton Miller being on the field as an additional weapon to Zeke Elliot, whichever candidate wins the starting gig under center is in the Heisman conversation. He'll have to outperform some of his teammates in order to win it though. Hurray. Projection: 150