Draftageddon 2015: Sprinkle Some Rudock On It

The first rule of Draftageddon is "you must complain about Draftageddon." The second is "the four people drafting assemble teams of Big Ten players in an effort to seem the best at drafting."

THAT WHICH HAS COME BEFORE

Previously on Draftageddon:

• Adam takes a guy with a ~33% chance to start first overall! Joey Bosa lasts until pick 3! Seth is generally sensible! For him that counts as Heiko-ing, I think!
• Brian takes back to back QBs! Several additional Ohio State players go off the board! 24-12!
• Ace takes Braxton Miller as a QB and then shrugs expansively when he ends up a terrifying H-back!

THAT WHICH IS THE CURRENT SITUATION

THAT WHICH IS HAPPENING CURRENTLY

ACE: Round 12, Pick 2: Jake Rudock, actual quarterback, Michigan

[Patrick Barron]

OFFENSE: QB Jake Rudock (U-M), OW Braxton Miller (OSU), WR Michael Thomas (OSU), WR DaeSean Hamilton (PSU), OT Jack Conklin (MSU), OC Dan Voltz (UW)

DEFENSE: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), NT Austin Johnson (PSU), OLB Darron Lee (OSU), CB Eli Apple (OSU), S Tyvis Powell (OSU)

[ED: Since everyone else has QBs, Ace has to take one.]

Just after I submitted my last pick, SI's Pete Thamel broke the news: I have successfully gamed the system.

“For the most part, it’s going to be H-Back and punt return,” Miller said in a phone interview on Thursday night. “It’s a long process to get back totally to throwing and throwing every day. This is the smarter thing for right now, God blessed me with a lot of talent and different opportunities. I’m going to have fun with that and still score a lot of touchdowns and help the team out and be dominant at that.”

A reminder: H-back, in Urban Meyer's system, is the Percy Harvin position. Miller is as close to a Harvin-level athlete as Meyer has had since Harvin himself. While I'm forced to take a quarterback again here, the magnanimous Commissioner Brian offered the opportunity to release Miller back into the pool and take an additional compensatory selection; I will not be doing that, even with Jalin Marshall still on the board. Miller's potential in that role is too great for me to pass up on; it was one of the main reasons I drafted him in the first place.

So, anyway, an actual quarterback. Many would expect Indiana's Nate Sudfeld to go here, but I'm not convinced he can replicate his 2013 success. Sudfeld benefitted from both Kevin Wilson's wide open, lightning fast system and a great group of receivers (2014 2nd-rounder Cody Latimer, Kofi Hughes, Shane Wynn, Ted Bolser) that season. With Latimer, Hughes, and Bolser gone last year, Sudfeld had rough games against the two remotely viable defenses he faced—32/70, 378 yards (5.4 YPA), 1 TD, 1 INT combined vs. Mizzou and Maryland—before injuring his shoulder early on against Iowa. He had Tevin Coleman there to take a great deal of attention off of him and still didn't look all-conference caliber.

Jake Rudock, meanwhile, played for a program that considered Mark Weisman an acceptable three-year starter at running back. Brian's done the research legwork here. Rudock generally looked verygood when afforded time and a reasonable gameplan despite working with a substandard group of receivers. He looked less good when victimized by a combination of coaching malpractice and a leaky offensive line. At the very least, Rudock should be efficient; even in a year when he eventually got benched, he posted the third-best passer efficiency in the Big Ten. If a lot of his perceived issues—namely, a propensity for checking down too often—were the product of his GERG-ian environment, he'll thrive under Jim Harbaugh. My guess is Rudock will serve as yet another reminder to Iowa fans that their coaching situation, um, sucks.

SETH: Round 12, Pick 3: Mason Cole, OL, Michigan

[Bryan Fuller]

OFFENSE: QB Connor Cook (MSU), RB Corey Clement (WIS), WR Leonte Carroo (Rut), OC Jack Allen (MSU), OG Pat Elflein (OSU), OT Alex Lewis (Neb)
DEFENSE: Steve Longa (WLB), HSP Jabrill Peppers (Mich), DB Jordan Lucas (PSU), S Michael Caputo (Wis), CB Will Likely (Md)

Last year's offensive line preview gave Michigan a "1 of 5" for tackle, because in the history of true freshman tackles, the absolute ceiling is for some future superstar to be just okay. Brian even ran down the history of teams forced to put the blindside in the hands of an 18-year-old and found those who got to okay had a five-star recruit on the level of Peppers.

Mason Cole was okay.

Since competent true freshman LTs are so rare we're literally stuck with Laremy Tunsil as the only comparison, here is a list of Michigan redshirt freshman offensive lineman since the mid-'90s who were not obvious liabilities: Jansen, Hutchinson, Backus, Long, Molk, Lewan.

Cole's best years are still in the future, but I'll take last year plus the standard freshman-to-sophomore bump on my line any day.

ADAM: Round 12, Pick 4: Ed Davis, OLB, Michigan State
Round 13, Pick 1: Justin Jackson, RB, Northwestern

OFFENSE: QB J.T. Barrett (OSU), WR Jordan Westerkamp (Neb), OT Jason Spriggs, (IU), TE Jake Butt (UM), C Austin Blythe (Iowa), RB Justin Jackson (NW)

DEFENSE: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), DT Adolphus Washington (OSU), S Vonn Bell (OSU), CB Eric Murray (Minn), LB Raekwon McMillan (OSU), DE Drew Ott (Iowa), OLB Ed Davis (MSU)

My linebackers may not win the hearts of the Michigan faithful, but I couldn't pass up an opportunity to add a SAM with pass-rush ability. Davis had 58 tackles, 12.0 TFL, and 7.0 sacks in his first season as a starter; you may remember him from his 6 tackle, 2 TFL performance against Michigan.

In his Hail to the Victors preview, Seth described Davis as "...an attack piece who will rack up a lot of sacks and otherwise match up against tight ends he's more athletic than." If that's what my twelfth round pick can do then that's fine by me. What's most noticeable on film is his lateral quickness, which allows him to easily cover the flat or crash inside to stop the run. He's also fast enough to line up wide and make tackles look absolutely ridiculous. 

His skill set lends itself to being a SAM in a 4-3 under, which was what I was looking for. In McMillan I have a player who was certainly productive as a true freshman but whom I drafted in part because of his potential (i.e. recruiting profile); in Davis I have a two-year starter and fifth-year senior who's a more known commodity.

My next pick played in the M00N game- on offense, no less. And I made this pick voluntarily! Easily snarkable, and yet a likely record for longest it's taken for a Northwestern player to go off the board. Jackson's not a big back (5'11", 195) but he's quick and his vision is excellent. He's also a reliable receiver, catching 78.6% of passes when he was targeted and averaging 7.2 yards per target. 

In 2014 Jackson rushed for 1,187 yards on 4.8 yards per carry despite playing behind a line that ranked 83rd in adjusted line yards and 117th (!) in opportunity rate. He's also the second-leading returning rusher in the Big Ten, behind only Ezekiel Elliott (who understandably went 11 rounds earlier). He put up 162 rushing yards on 33 carries and 106 on 22 (plus 4 catches for 50 receiving yards) against Wisconsin and Minnesota, ranked 29th and 36th in Rushing S&P+, respectively. Those two games were part of his end of season tear, in which he rushed for 100+ yards in six of the season's last eight games. 

I can't recreate OSU's offense, but if Barrett's going to be effective he needs a run threat to keep defenses honest. I'm happy to have this one in what looks like an otherwise arid wasteland of Big Ten backs.

[After THE JUMP: CERTAINLY WE ARE OUT OF OSU PLAYERS AT THIS JUNCTURE]

SETH: Round 13, Pick 2: Jalin Marshall, wide receiver, Ohio State

OFFENSE: QB Connor Cook (MSU), RB Corey Clement (WIS), WR Leonte Carroo (Rut), WR Jalin Marshall (OSU), OC Jack Allen (MSU), OG Pat Elflein (OSU), OT Alex Lewis (Neb), OT Mason Cole (Mich)
DEFENSE: Steve Longa (WLB), HSP Jabrill Peppers (Mich), DB Jordan Lucas (PSU), S Michael Caputo (Wis), CB Will Likely (Md)

As a RS freshman Jalin Marshall led a deep pack for the H-back "Percy" position. Then he injured his knee mid-spring, giving way to the as-electrifying Dontre Wilson. When Wilson went down, Marshall starred in the all-everything slotback role for the last six games.

Projecting those six (Minn, Ind, Mich, Wis, Bama, Oregon) over a 13-game season you get 52 catches for 741 yards and 9 touchdowns, with a hair over 10 yards per target. That's just as a receiver. He added 5.8 YPC on the ground and a PR touchdown.
I've watched the highlight reel and it's impressive. He outruns man coverage by the best man corner in the conference, then runs by everybody, and scores. He catches a one-handed fade, and scores. He stutters past two gunners, and scores. He spins out of an "I'm gonna kill you" tackle attempt, and scores. He lines up at Wildcat, outflanks everybody, and scores. He lines up wide, and leaps 10 feet up on the sideline to snag a 25-yard pass over perfect coverage on 3rd down. He can throw a pass too.

Caveat: Marshall fumbled twice and dropped a punt return against Minnesota. In the aftermath, Internet Buckeye fans called him trash, garbage, idiot, and point-shaver, and told him to kill himself for costing the Buckeyes a "playoof" spot.

With Michael Thomas out with a groin injury, Wilson lined up outside all spring. Since this is 2015 OSU we're talking about, that of course went swimmingly. At the end of spring his receivers coach said Jalin's still the best H they've got, but left the wide idea open. Even before Miller's move, Eleven Warriors thought Michael Thomas would take Devin Smith's "go deep" role, with Marshall taking over Thomas's X spot. I pinged Nick Jervey, formerly of 11W, and he agreed this is OSU's #2 guy. Whether Marshall plays slot, outside, or RB, we are all idiots to have let him slip this far.

ACE: Round 13, Pick 3: Joshua Perry, OLB, OSU

OFFENSE: QB Jake Rudock (U-M), OW Braxton Miller (OSU), WR Michael Thomas (OSU), WR DaeSean Hamilton (PSU), OT Jack Conklin (MSU), OC Dan Voltz (UW)

DEFENSE: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), NT Austin Johnson (PSU), OLB Darron Lee (OSU), OLB Joshua Perry (OSU), CB Eli Apple (OSU), S Tyvis Powell (OSU)

This pick is largely about fit. Perry complements Lee quite well, acting as the tackle-accruing cleanup crew (team-high 73 solo, 124 total tackles) while Lee serves as the passing down playmaker. While he doesn't accrue a ton of sacks (three last year), he makes plays behind the line against the run (5.5 TFLs vs. run), and the Buckeyes are comfortable lining him up in a number of different spots—he'll serve as a rush end, line up in a stack, or shade over the slot if necessary. Like the Buckeyes do in real life, my team would lift the nose tackle in nickel situations and run a 3-3-5.

I'm bummed I barely missed my chance to handcuff Miller with Marshall, who I'm very surprised fell this far, but I'm pretty darn comfortable piecing together the OSU defense around a couple stellar non-Buckeye defensive tackles.

BRIAN: Round 13, Pick 4: Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Maryland
Round 14, Pick 1: Dan Feeney, OG, Indiana

OFFENSE: QB Christian Hackenberg(PSU), QB Cardale Jones(OSU), RB Ezekiel Elliot (OSU), WR Amara Darboh (M), OL Taylor Decker (OSU), OL Taylor Marz (WI).

DEFENSE: DT Anthony Zettel (PSU), DT Maliek Collins (Neb), DE Yannick Ngakoue (MD), LB Nyeem Wartman-White(PSU), LB Vince Biegel (WI), CB Jourdan Lewis (M), CB Briean Boddy-Calhoun (MN).

Nobody took Perry despite his high placement on NFL draft boards because we all saw him bad against Michigan. Draft Breakdown has a video of this performance, which is so very meh. Probably a justifiable pick at this point but I'm guessing our collective opinion on Perry is that he's a passenger on the OSU defense. 

Anyway: I'm grabbing yet another OLB/DE type, as the league is rotten with them this year. I left Biegel on the board a couple rounds longer than I thought he'd last because of this surfeit and now I'll take a gentleman who could be on his level. Ngakoue is another guy I picked out as he annihilated the Iowa offensive line, except in this case the guy Ngakoue was beating up on was none other than then-future first round pick Brandon Scherff. 

Also. 

I called Ngakoue "random DL" when I UFRed Maryland-Iowa; Ngakoue proved to be considerably more than that. I ended up clipping a half-dozen plays from that game alone on which Nagkoue zoomed by Scherff or one of Iowa's guards. He produced statistically, as well, with 13.5 TFLs and 6 sacks as a true sophomore. 

Maryland was nominally a 3-4 team a year ago; this year they are moving to a 4-3 with Ngakoue as their star weakside end. A dollar says that ends up being a very good move.

And for the second straight set of picks I'll get a guy who is the second player taken at his position from a school that is not exactly known for putting position X into the NFL. That would be because Dan Feeney is pretty damn good, one of the guys who helped pave the way for Tevin Coleman and a future pro according to just about anyone you ask. 

Feeney started the moment he stepped on Indiana's campus, lost his entire sophomore year to a foot injury, came back strong in 2014, and enters 2015 a redshirt junior ready to go from promising to very, very good. I know we kind of roll our eyes at Steele sometimes, but he does have Feeney a first team All Big Ten guard.

I know you're crushed at this pick, Seth. Don't even fake it. 

SETH: It's just good to know someone besides me cares about Indiana OL. The only things over 6 feet the Indiana bloggers want to talk about are the basketball players. One day long after Kevin Wilson is fired from Indiana for Indiana being Indiana, I will find him sitting at a bar in some hotel near some division ii recruit, and we will share a sad scotch over Feeney's amazing feet.

BRIAN: Hey, man, don't forget about Punt John Punt.

[ED: Whoops! This pick was omitted from the post by accident.]

ACE: Round 14, Pick 2: Darius Hillary, CB, Wisconsin

OFFENSE: QB Jake Rudock (U-M), OW Braxton Miller (OSU), WR Michael Thomas (OSU), WR DaeSean Hamilton (PSU), OT Jack Conklin (MSU), OC Dan Voltz (UW)

DEFENSE: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), NT Austin Johnson (PSU), OLB Darron Lee (OSU), OLB Joshua Perry (OSU), CB Eli Apple (OSU), CB Darius Hillary (UW), S Tyvis Powell (OSU)

BryMac defended my last pick for me in our group chat:

​

Those are Wisconsin's game-by-game yards per carry averages last year beginning at the start of Big Ten play. Yes, that 1.92 came against the team you think it did. Perry isn't a star and he didn't look great against Michigan, but he plays with a relentless motor (it's hard to record 124 tackles in any other fashion), takes good angles to the football, and finishes plays when he arrives. I'm fine with the value I got there.

Speaking of Wisconsin, most expected Sojourn Shelton to be their best corner in 2014 after a strong true freshman campaign in 2013. The Badgers certainly fared well in pass defense, finishing 29th in pass S&P+ and 7th on passing downs. While a great pass rush helped mask some coverage issues, those issues often came from a surprising source: Shelton. Wisconsin blog Bucky's Fifth Quarter pointed out that opponents were able to take advantage of Shelton's diminutive 5'9 frame much more often in 2014, and when they get to their outlook of this year's secondary, there's another cornerback at the top of the heap:

Shelton should have a bounce back season and probably be close to his freshman year production of four interceptions. Hillary has been the ideal Wisconsin defensive back, improving his game every year and ready to star in his senior season. While Shelton should be better than he was last year, Hillary will be the cornerback that Big Ten quarterbacks avoid in 2015.

Hillary did well enough last year to get a very positive mention in one of NFL.com's anonymous scout roundups:

The scoop:"Quietly, he's had an excellent year. He bears watching." -- NFL scout on Wisconsin CB Darius Hillary

The skinny: Sojourn Shelton entered the season as the Badgers' top returning corner, but it has been Hillary who has been the most consistent and dependable in 2014. Hillary has had some hiccups along the way, but everyone that plays corner does. He understands his role well and accepts challenges. He also relishes the opportunity to defend the No. 1 wide receiver on the other team. His play in 2014 earned him a second-team all-Big Ten selection by the coaches. He's a redshirt junior who would benefit from another season at Wisconsin.

Hillary really did relish taking on opposing #1 receivers. Wisconsin faces seven of the top 11 yardage-producing wideouts in the Big Ten last year. This is how they did:

​The only wideout to have even a decent game was Devin Smith, who caught all three of his touchdowns against non-Hillary DBs, including one on Shelton. Diggs' touchdown occurred in the final minute of a 52-7 Badger victory; he was matched up on backup CB Devin Gaulden. Bell's came when he beat Michael Caputo to the corner of the end zone. Nobody else did a dang thing.

Hillary may not pile up huge numbers (5 PBUs, 3 TFLs, no picks in 2014), but it's clear we're underrating him.

SETH - Round 14, Pick 3: Desmond Morgan, linebacker, Michigan

[Eric Upchurch]

OFFENSE: QB Connor Cook (MSU), RB Corey Clement (WIS), WR Leonte Carroo (Rut), WR Jalin Marshall (OSU), OC Jack Allen (MSU), OG Pat Elflein (OSU), OT Alex Lewis (Neb), OT Mason Cole (Mich)
DEFENSE: MLB Desmond Morgan (Mich), WLB Steve Longa (RU), HSP Jabrill Peppers (Mich), DB Jordan Lucas (PSU), S Michael Caputo (WI), CB Will Likely (MD)

Brian wrote four solid paragraphs plus a chart when he selected Morgan in this same round last year. One extremely convenient hand injury, and one fewer Jake Ryans to compete with later, I submit Morgan is the same four-year starter we liked way more than Curtis Grant then, and should now.

ADAM: Round 14, Pick 4: Brian Allen, OG, Michigan State
Round 15, Pick 1: De'Mornay Pierson-El, WR, Nebraska

OFFENSE: QB J.T. Barrett (OSU), WR Jordan Westerkamp (Neb), OT Jason Spriggs, (IU), TE Jake Butt (UM), C Austin Blythe (Iowa), RB Justin Jackson (NW), OG Brian Allen (MSU), WR De'Mornay Pierson-El (Neb)

DEFENSE: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), DT Adolphus Washington (OSU), S Vonn Bell (OSU), CB Eric Murray (Minn), LB Raekwon McMillan (OSU), DE Drew Ott (Iowa), OLB Ed Davis (MSU)

Allen, whose brother Jack was selected earlier, worked his way into 12 games at left guard, right guard, and center. That a true freshman was able to do so for a team that ranked 15th in Rushing S&P+ bodes well for 2015- that he was named a first-team Freshman All-American even more so.

Potentially biased sources say that he had 24.5 knockdowns while allowing a half a sack in 277 snaps. A disclaimer about spring drafts goes here, but Allen was the first overall selection in Michigan State's Green-White draft- ahead of Connor Cook, Jack Conklin, and his brother. His versatility likely had a lot to do with where he was taken in the draft; this fall he's slated to be the starting left guard.

I also just like him. This spring he talked about how he slowed as the year wore on not because of the rigors of a Big Ten season, but because of the fine cuisine at North Case Hall's cafeteria. His solution? Jump rope. He already had a reputation as a good run blocker, but I'm all for a jump rope regimen that might increase his quickness and make him a marginally better pass protector. 

Next, I'm taking a 5'9", 175-pound receiver who had a really good bowl game and a few nice catches that were concentrated toward the end of the Big Ten season. At least his big game, in which he caught 8 passes for 102 yards, came against USC- their defense ranked 33rd in Passing S&P+. Pierson-El caught 23 passes for 321 yards and four touchdowns, but those numbers belie his talent. His 63.9% catch rate and 8.9 yards per target are fine numbers for a player who had low usage (he was targeted on 10.6% of passes) in his true freshman season. 

Pierson-El is primarily known for being a sublime punt returner, as he averaged a ludicrous 17.53 yards per return on 34 returns while taking three back for touchdowns. His highlight film is naturally return heavy, but it shows something else: a small receiver with rocket boots who can snag a ball in traffic and line up inside or out. Though it isn't on film, he appears to be a natural fit as a screen merchant of death; my offense badly needs this. Here's hoping his next 12 games are a lot like his last four.

SETH - Round 15, Pick 2: Kemoko Turay, DE/OLB, Rutgers

the thing Turay is best at

OFFENSE: QB Connor Cook (MSU), RB Corey Clement (WIS), WR Leonte Carroo (Rut), WR Jalin Marshall (OSU), OC Jack Allen (MSU), OG Pat Elflein (OSU), OT Alex Lewis (Neb), OT Mason Cole (Mich)
DEFENSE: DE/OLB Kemoko Turay (RU), MLB Desmond Morgan (Mich), WLB Steve Longa (RU), HSP Jabrill Peppers (Mich), DB Jordan Lucas (PSU), S Michael Caputo (WI), CB Will Likely (MD)

There are quite a few edge specialists in the conference, but I don't think any of them has the upside of this:

Poke a teammate or a coach or an NFL evaluator last year and "freakish" is the first thing they'd use to describe the then-6'6"/235 redshirt freshman. That NFL link is a list of freakiest freak NFL prospects, wherein Turay was ranked seventh, two better than Joey Bosa.

Born in Ghana, Turay played his first full season of football since his senior year in high school (he played some freshman ball but his parents pulled him), so last year he was still raw raw raw. Rotating in mostly for passing downs, he still wracked up 7.5 sacks, plus three blocked field goals (you remember the one), earning honorable mention all-conference in that Big Ten. He thinks he should have had more like 20:

Watching film from last season, Turay estimated that he missed 11 sacks. Now that he has a better understanding of the defense, Turay's has high expectations for an encore to his breakout season.

This spring Turay was up to 240, and had to sit out on third downs so Rutgers could practice something other than "Turay Smash!"

Out of other options, Rutgers coach Kyle Flood finally yanked Kemoko Turay from the lineup and kept his burgeoning star on the bench during passing situations for the rest of the day.

The problem? Turay, who had a team-high 7.5 sacks and was named a Freshman All-American playing as a specialist last season, was just wrecking the flow of the offense during the second spring scrimmage.

"We just couldn't block him today," Flood said. "Kemoko had three sacks and we took him out of the third-down situations just because we couldn't get a play off with him out there."

"Is still learning to control his quarterback blood rage" doesn't sound like he's quite up to Gregory/Bosa/Calhoun territory as a run defender, but the learning curve should still be gigantic. He looks like an NFL first rounder in three years; in three months, at worst this guy's a one-man 3rd down wrecking crew. And since my "wild card" is going to be on the field every play, I can afford that.

ACE: Round 15, Pick 3: Josh Ferguson, running back, Illinois

OFFENSE: QB Jake Rudock (U-M), RB Josh Ferguson (IL), OW Braxton Miller (OSU), WR Michael Thomas (OSU), WR DaeSean Hamilton (PSU), OT Jack Conklin (MSU), OC Dan Voltz (UW)

DEFENSE: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), NT Austin Johnson (PSU), OLB Darron Lee (OSU), OLB Joshua Perry (OSU), CB Eli Apple (OSU), CB Darius Hillary (UW), S Tyvis Powell (OSU)

Before I get to my pick, here are a few things said about Kemoko Turay this offseason:

He can jump over buildings, says teammate Darius Hamilton. He can seek out a pocket quarterback like a programmed robot, the stats show.
But can he play defensive end on first and second downs?

While speed is the key to Turay's ability, he is trying to build his strength so that he can better hold his own against hefty Big Ten offensive lineman. He wants to weigh 245 pounds by the season-opener, though his self-described "fast metabolism" has caused him to lose four pounds since right before spring camp.

Rutgers had a terrible run defense and still couldn't justify getting Turay on the field for anything other than obvious passing downs. He's struggling to maintain a weight that would still have him in the "considerably undersized" category. I'll be intrigued to see who Seth selects as his first- and second-down WDE. I like this pick next year, after we've seen if Turay can be even passable against the run; this year it's a huge, huge risk.

Anyway, Josh Ferguson. While there's a significant dropoff from the top two backs in the conference, I thought Ferguson is easily the third-best. My justification requires a quick stat lesson. Highlight yards are the running back statistical complement to adjusted line yards. To measure highlight yards, running backs get half credit for "second-level yards" (5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage) and full credit for any yards beyond that, so a 50-yard run would earn 43 highlight yards. To turn this into a handy rate stat, Football Study Hall created highlight yards per opportunity, which divides a runner's highlight yards by his number of carries covering 5+ yards (opportunities). Here's a chart of every Big Ten runner (plus Indiana transfer Jordan Howard) who had at least 100 carries last year:

This stat passes the eye test; the best open-field runners are at the top and opportunity rate helps contextualize the environment they ran in (just look at the poor damn Penn State backs). Ferguson, running behind Illinois' line, was comparable—in fact, better—than the top two RBs selected in this draft once he hit five yards downfield; he just didn't get the chances one gets when Ohio State's or Wisconsin's hogmollies pave the way. Watch his highlights and you see a patient, shifty, explosive runner who's also a great receiver out of the backfield:

"YOU SCARED OF LOSING? WE DONE THAT" –Illinois football player

Especially considering the talent surrounding him, Ferguson's numbers have been impressive, too. He has 50 receptions in each of the last two seasons covering a total of 962 yards—he does much more than just catch screens and even splits out wide on occasion. He rushed for 5.0 YPC in 2014 when teammate Donovonn Young, who had 94 carries, managed just 4.0 behind the same line. He didn't get to pad his stats in garbage time; Illinois literally had no games in which they were winning by enough to have what Football Study Hall considers garbage time rushing attempts.

Ferguson has one glaring weakness: he had seven fumbles, losing four, on 195 touches last season. Mike Hart he is not. Put him behind even a half-decent line, though, and he'll make a lot of good things happen.

BRIAN: Round 15, Pick 4: Brad Craddock, K, Maryland
Round 16, Pick 1: Tevaun Smith, WR, Iowa

OFFENSE: QB Christian Hackenberg(PSU), QB Cardale Jones(OSU), RB Ezekiel Elliot (OSU), WR Amara Darboh (M), WR Tevaun Smith (IA), OL Taylor Decker (OSU), OL Taylor Marz (WI), OL Dan Feeney (IU).

DEFENSE: DT Anthony Zettel (PSU), DT Maliek Collins (Neb), DE Yannick Ngakoue (MD), LB Nyeem Wartman-White(PSU), LB Vince Biegel (WI), CB Jourdan Lewis (M), CB Briean Boddy-Calhoun (MN).

SPECIAL TEAMS: K Brad Craddock (MD).

Brad Craddock is the best kicker in the country. He was last year's Lou Groza winner after hitting 18 of 19 field goals, including a 57-yarder and a 43-yarder into the Penn State student section to beat the Nittany Lions. In 2014 he was 21 for 25. Here is a list of the things he won last year.

• 2014 Lou Groza Award Winner
• 2014 Big Ten Bakken-Andersen Kicker of the Year Recipient
• 2014 FWAA First Team All-American
• 2014 Associated Press Second Team All-American
• 2014 Sporting News Second Team All-American
• 2014 USA Today Second Team All-American
• 2014 Walter Camp Second Team All-American
• 2014 All-Big Ten First Team Selection

He is also Australian, and the best kicker in the country.

I am far less certain about how the next pick will work out but it's time to take another swing at the grim set of wide receivers in the league: yes, Tevaun Smith. The only non-radioactively-bad Iowa receiver last year, Smith was badly underutilized by the Hawkeyes. BHGP:

Flash forward to now and the frustration is with the inconsistent playcalling that doesn't get Smith involved in the offense more, not Smith himself.  Smith had four catches in five of Iowa's last seven games and racked up 69 or more yards in four of those games, to go along with two touchdowns.  Smith was even a positive factor when he didn't catch the ball -- he was able to successfully draw pass interference penalties on more than a few occasions when Iowa targeted him deep.  Smith may not be elite at any one thing -- speed, catching ability, route running -- but he's become very good at a lot of them and he needs to be one of the focal points of the Iowa offense in 2015. 

He seems like a total-ish package: a 6'2" guy with reasonable deep speed who can go stab for stab with Odell Beckham in both stunt and game situations:

So of course Iowa still threw to Kevonte Martin-Manley more than him. KMM (52 catches) is gone along with Damond Powell (19) and Damon Bullock (a depressing 32), so Smith and TE Jake Duzey figure to get the vast bulk of the targets this year. I like Smith to make more of his opportunities than he or his compatriots did last year. I've spotted a couple of Manningham-esque slow-and-extend plays from him on deep balls, and he shows excellent body control on downfield catch attempts. That should push his numbers up from the 43 catches for 596 yards of a year ago into All Big Ten-ish territory, and possibly into the draft.

This (probably) concludes the list of guys I will draft because of things I saw in the Rudock UFR series.

THAT WHICH HAS NOW OCCURRED

THAT WHICH WILL OCCUR IN THE FUTURE

Ace drafts OSU's backup punter.