Draftageddon 2015: The Braxton Conundrum

The first rule of Draftageddon is "you must complain about Draftageddon." The second is "the four people drafting assemble teams of Big Ten players in an effort to seem the best at drafting."

THAT WHICH HAS COME BEFORE

Previously on Draftageddon:

• Adam takes a guy with a ~33% chance to start first overall! Joey Bosa lasts until pick 3! Seth is generally sensible! For him that counts as Heiko-ing, I think!
• Brian takes back to back QBs! Several additional Ohio State players go off the board! 24-12!

THAT WHICH IS THE CURRENT SITUATION

ACE: Round 8, Pick 2: Braxton Miller, QB/?, Ohio State

OFFENSE: QB Braxton Miller (OSU), WR Michael Thomas (OSU), WR DaeSean Hamilton (PSU), OT Jack Conklin (MSU)

DEFENSE: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), NT Austin Johnson (PSU), OLB Darron Lee (OSU)
The rules dictate I take a quarterback here, and I'll abide by those rules. For the most part.

Braxton Miller isn't the favorite to win the job at Ohio State. He's coming off a lost season after his surgically repaired throwing shoulder fell apart in fall camp. JT Barrett stepped in and nearly won the Heisman; Cardale Jones relieved Barrett and won the national title. Miller may have the least amount of pro potential of the three, at least at quarterback.

Health permitting, however, Miller may be the best college quarterback. It's not a stretch to say he's already a legendary Big Ten QB. He's one of four players in the history of the conference to win two Big Ten MVP awards. In his most recent season, he passed for 2094 yards on 8.2 YPA and rushed for 1068 on 6.2 YPC; he accounted for 36 touchdowns and threw only seven interceptions. The list of national, Big Ten, and school records he owns or has in his sights is too long to list here. He may not be the most polished passer, but he is a breathtaking runner:

While Miller's injury is a downside the other two Buckeye QBs don't have, his running ability provides an upside his competition lacks. If Miller doesn't win the job, it's in everyone's best interest for him to play running back or H-back (Meyer's Percy Harvin position). He probably wouldn't start with Ezekiel Elliott and Jalin Marshall, respectively, holding those two spots, but it'd be hard to keep him off the field as long as he stays healthy.

If I'm lucky, I just snagged a #1-pick value in the eighth round. If I'm not, I still think Miller will contribute in some form, and I can grab one of the middle-tier quarterbacks later as insurance.

[EDITOR'S NOTE: Soon after Ace made this pick it was announced that Miller would be playing H-back/Harvin guy. The commissioner decided that Ace had to take an actual QB with his next pick, which is in the next post, and had the option of keeping Miller or throwing him back in the pool and taking a supplemental pick immediately. Ace chose to keep Miller, because duh.]

SETH: Round 8, Pick 3:  Michael Caputo, strong safety, Wisconsin

OFFENSE: QB Connor Cook (MSU), RB Corey Clement (WIS), WR Leonte Carroo (Rut), OC Jack Allen (MSU), OG Pat Elflein (OSU)
DEFENSE: HSP Jabrill Peppers (Mich), DB Jordan Lucas (PSU), S Michael Caputo (Wis)

After 30 picks you don't expect to find a second-team All-American still on the board, especially not when he's a linebacker-sized ballhawk who led Wisconsin in tackles last year as a safety, and outshone Chris Borland in 2013 from F linebacker (hybrid space player).

As you might have guessed, I'm picking for either a 3-3-5 or a 4-2-5 defense with hybrids to either side. Since the conference's elite pass rushers went off the board quickly, my strategy for kicking ass will have to include a lot of blitzing, which means having the dudes who can do that or cover a lot of ground behind it. Basically it's the anti-spread modern version of the 46 defense. And it just so happens the reincarnation of #46 (Doug Plank) himself plays in the Big Ten.

If we're assigning roles between this trio, Caputo is the two-parts-linebacker/meat-raw safety who takes the side of the tight end. From Madison.com:

Michael Caputo was 2 years old when he hopped on his toy articulated vehicle, a load of dirt in the back, and pedaled down the 125-foot long driveway at the family’s home near Pittsburgh. The boy picked up speed along the way crashing into a concrete wall.

He thought it was so much fun that he did it over and over.

Go ahead and save that for the next time someone asks you to describe Wisconsin in so many words. After cement walls, Caputo finds Big Ten tight ends remarkably pliable, if less fun. Popping bubble screens is just easy. Last year when I stole him in round 21 I quoted DC Dave Arranda on how his then-sophomore was the only guy who could make the schematic adjustments that made Wisconsin's run defense work. Here's safeties coach Bill Busch one year later:

“He’s the true captain of the ship back there with all the adjustments that he makes,” Busch said of Caputo, who plays alongside true freshman Lubern Figaro. “A lot of times we put him in the position that requires the most thinking.”

The Kovacs is strong in this one. If Kovacs was the size of a linebacker, hit like a truck, and fell one spot shy of a Bednarik semifinalist last year.

ADAM: Round 8, Pick 4: Eric Murray, CB, Minnesota 
Round 9, Pick 1: Raekwon McMillan, LB, Ohio State

OFFENSE: QB J.T. Barrett (OSU), WR Jordan Westerkamp (Neb), OT Jason Spriggs, (IU), TE Jake Butt (UM)

DEFENSE: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), DT Adolphus Washington (OSU), S Vonn Bell (OSU), CB Eric Murray (Minn), LB Raekwon McMillan (OSU)

The Big Ten may have an abundance of talent at corner this fall, but I couldn't let Murray sit on the board any longer. He has a two-year track record as one of the best cover corners in college football, lining up so close he can tell you what the opposing receiver had for their pregame meal while possessing the rare ability to jam and turn and run and actually stay with guys for more than 10 yards.

He's not going to post eye-popping interception totals (he has one career pick, and that came last season against San Jose State), but his 17 PBUs and 75% of tackles being of the solo variety over the past two years show what he can do in coverage and in run support. Defensive backs coach Jay Sawvel agrees:

"He's a good tackler, he's a great blitzer, he's a tremendous special-teams player, he's very, very good in press coverage to the point where a lot of times a play will just break down."

The conference has Michael Thomas, Leonte Carroo, and Dudes Who Sometimes Catch Things. I think Murray will be just fine.

Sticking with defense, I've decided to start building my linebacking corps in the middle, which is probably the conference's weakest spot. You can't say I didn't try to make this draft entertaining.

McMillan takes over for the departed (and oft-criticized) Curtis Grant, whose playing time McMillan already started leeching last fall. McMillan finished the season with 54 total tackles, 6.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 interception, and 1 PBU, playing in every game except the season opener against Navy and the Sugar Bowl against Alabama.

He's not the fastest, but he has good size (6-2, 240) and the kind of instincts that are so often discussed they fill many pages when you Google him. He's also adapted nicely to calling the defense. Per DC Luke Fickell:

"That's the thing that you saw early on. There's some guys who have intelligence and some that aren't football smart, then some who are and don't really work at it. He's got an incredible combination of all of it."

McMillan will benefit from playing next to WLB/Heart and Soul Guy/Gritty Gritster Josh Perry and SLB/hybrid space destroyer/stat sheet filler Darron Lee, but the former top-50 recruit should be able to hold his own against the Big Ten's terrifying stable of offensive weapons.

[After THE JUMP: WE ARE CERTAINLY OUT OF BUCKEYES THIS TIME]

SETH - Round 9, Pick 2:  William Likely, cornerback, Maryland

OFFENSE: QB Connor Cook (MSU), RB Corey Clement (WIS), WR Leonte Carroo (Rut), OC Jack Allen (MSU), OG Pat Elflein (OSU)
DEFENSE: HSP Jabrill Peppers (Mich), DB Jordan Lucas (PSU), S Michael Caputo (Wis), CB Will Likely (Md)
By the Maryland game last year all of our attentions had wandered to the future. The Brandon axe had fallen; the Hoke one was inevitable. Our photographers' disinterested lenses understandably drifted away from our subject matter whenever a rabbit went by:

There's 10 more where those came from, becaue Likely was all over the place, turning Michigan's already maddening passing game into a twitching pile of sadness, and burrowing into every place we didn't want him on special teams. Apparently he does this to everybody else:

Where did they find this guy? Belle Glade, Florida, i.e. ten miles south of the muck.

The two-year starter is generously listed at 5'7, but every inch of that is packed with maximum nuisance. He led all cornerbacks in tackles (83), led the conference in interceptions (six, returning two for touchdowns), and tied with Kurtis Drummond (hi, BiSD!) for second in PBUs (nine), but only because picking it off doesn't count as such. That was his sophomore effort.

Opponents kept trying to go over his head and kept finding the cornerback version of Jeremy Gallon. So no, I'm not concerned about that size, especially since after Carroo and Thomas every receiver in this conference is either an underwhelming African refugee or under 5'11. Likely's also a good returner, averaging 11 yards per punt return and leading the conference in KR average (31.0). I was dang proud of myself last year for yanking Murray in a late round, but there's no need to go fishing for value when a star is still on the board.

ACE: Round 9, Pick 3: Eli Apple, CB, Ohio State

OFFENSE: QB Braxton Miller (OSU), WR Michael Thomas (OSU), WR DaeSean Hamilton (PSU), OT Jack Conklin (MSU)

DEFENSE: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), NT Austin Johnson (PSU), OLB Darron Lee (OSU), CB Eli Apple (OSU)

Look, I didn't plan on this. In an ideal world, my team is chock full of justifiably selected Wolverines. Ohio State just won a national championship, however, so this is not an ideal world.

In this world, Eli Apple played a significant role in OSU's remarkable pass defense turnaround from 2013 (61st in pass S&P+) to 2014 (7th, best in B1G). He did so as a redshirt freshman who first had to beat out a large group of touted young defensive backs (Gareon Conley, Armani Reeves, Damon Webb, Cam Burrows, and Marshon Lattimore) to earn his starting spot. Opponents who tried to pick on the young corner found the pickings slim; Apple added three interceptions to a team-high ten pass breakups. By midseason, his presence in the lineup was essential to OSU's success:

Apple had been nursing a hamstring injury and was held out of practice all week prior to the game against the Spartans. Even up until opening kickoff, it was still a question mark if he'd be able to play.

He didn't start the game — Gareon Conley did in his place. But after Michigan State had some success early on going right at Conley, Apple was called upon to gut it out. He delivered.

"He did not practice at all last week — did not take one rep at practice," Ohio State co-defensive coordinator Chris Ash said following the win over the Spartans. "And leading up to the game, even on Saturday morning, we weren't sure if Eli was going to be able to play or not. So, we made the decision to start Gareon Conley, went through the first couple of drives there and it got to a point, we said Eli, 'You've got to go,' and Eli said, 'I'm ready.'"

After that rocky first quarter with Conley on the field, during which OSU fell behind 14-7, the Buckeyes would allow just one more defensive touchdown until they took a 42-28 lead in the fourth and MSU went into desperation mode.

At 6'1", 200 pounds, Apple also provides a physical edge. His 5.5 TFLs were the most of any defensive back in Big Ten play; yes, one more than even Michael Caputo, who had the benefit of playing a lot of his snaps in the box. While he mostly played field corner across from Doran Grant last year, Apple can handle the boundary. If Conley or whoever wins the open starting job struggles a bit, opponents may not even bother throwing Apple's way. So, yeah, I took another Buckeye, but it's hard to pass up the top corner with burgeoning NFL potential on what should be a very good pass defense.

BRIAN: Round 9, Pick 4: Nyeem Wartman-White, LB, PSU
Round 10, Pick 1:Amara Darboh, WR, M

OFFENSE: QB Christian Hackenberg(PSU), QB Cardale Jones(OSU), RB Ezekiel Elliot (OSU), WR Amara Darboh (M), OL Taylor Decker (OSU), OL Taylor Marz (WI).

DEFENSE: DT Anthony Zettel (PSU), DT Maliek Collins (Neb), LB Nyeem Wartman-White(PSU), CB Jourdan Lewis (M).

Wartman-White used to be just "Wartman" until he decided to add his mom's name in there this offseason, so you know he's got the sentimental romantic comedy vote. My mom, and your mom, think this is the best pick of the draft.

He is also the Mike Hull heir apparent. Every year Penn State puts a middle linebacker out there and funnels the world to him; Wartman is that guy this year. Hull had 140 tackles a year ago to Wartman's 75; you can expect that to invert and then some since Wartman, a hyped recruit, brings way more sideline-to-sideline ability than the middlingly athletic Hull. "Penn State middle linebacker" is never a bad call; in Wartman's case he brings even more upside than the usual remorseless tackling machine.

Meanwhile, I will start my WR corps with a gentleman who is also poised to break out. Amara Darboh had about 500 yards last year as as sophomore in Brady Hoke's implosion of an offense. He displayed excellent hands, and he can definitely high-point a ball, Junior-Hemingway-style. I'm betting that a quarterback short on PTSD and long on accuracy plus the Hoke-to-Harbaugh upgrade gets Darboh close to 1,000 yards on the season.

Darboh isn't a burner and isn't going to separate a la Mario Manningham, but against zones and in one on one situations where his strength and size are an asset he can and probably will be very effective. I'm not sure he's a great fit with Jake Rudock, who is loathe to hang a ball up so his guy can go get it, but maybe that's a coaching thing. Either way he is the clear #1 WR on a team operating with the #3 passer efficiency QB from last year's Big Ten.

Finally, I'd like to take the opportunity to shout out Mike Dudek, WR, Illinois. I first noticed him in an Illinois-Iowa game when he was the counterpoint to Kevonte Martin-Manley's general not-good-ness, and then I looked at his bonkers stats as a random freshman--he's good. An upcoming post will directly compare the two in Dudek's favor.

He also tore his ACL in spring practice, thus making him toxic. Otherwise someone would be getting smart right about now and grabbing him. Next year, though...

ACE: Round 10, Pick 2: Tyvis Powell, S, Ohio State

OFFENSE: QB Braxton Miller (OSU), WR Michael Thomas (OSU), WR DaeSean Hamilton (PSU), OT Jack Conklin (MSU)

DEFENSE: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), NT Austin Johnson (PSU), OLB Darron Lee (OSU), CB Eli Apple (OSU), S Tyvis Powell (OSU)

Is this some sort of conspiracy to make me the most hated MGoBlogger? I've already mentioned that OSU's pass defense got really good last year; a great deal of that improvement came from replacing geometrically challenged safeties with up-and-comers Vonn Bell and Tyvis Powell. When Bill Connelly previewed this upcoming Buckeye squad, he got straight to the point:

Safeties Vonn Bell and Tyvis Powell are big, scary, and awesome. I should expand on this, but I don't know what else to say. Powell's very good, and Bell's fantastic.

There's a dearth of big, scary, and awesome safeties left on the board. Powell had 60 tackles, 2 TFLs, 4 INTs, 4 PBUs, and a forced fumble in his sophomore season. He should only be better this year. I know this is a Michigan blog and the conference is thin at receiver this year but I'm pleasantly surprised and a little confused that Darboh got selected before Powell. Proven playmakers at safety on great defenses don't exactly grow on trees.

SETH - Round 10, Pick 3:  Steve Longa, linebacker, Rutgers

OFFENSE: QB Connor Cook (MSU), RB Corey Clement (WIS), WR Leonte Carroo (Rut), OC Jack Allen (MSU), OG Pat Elflein (OSU)
DEFENSE: Steve Longa (WLB), HSP Jabrill Peppers (Mich), DB Jordan Lucas (PSU), S Michael Caputo (Wis), CB Will Likely (Md)

Playing linebacker is hard; Longa's thing is he makes it look easy. The native of Cameroon had never seen a football until half-way through high school, yet burst onto the scene with 123 tackles from MLB as a (RS) freshman all-American in 2013, with 7.5 for loss, 3 sacks and 4 PBUs. Last year he moved to weakside to paper over the coverage shortcomings of Kevin Snyder. After a few games of getting used to it, coaches and media were again making favorable comparisons to Longa's predecessor, 2013 Bears 4th rounder Khaseem Greene. In both years Longa had 30 more tackles than the next guy on his team. And we haven't even seen him as an upperclassman yet.

Like classmate James Ross, Longa's game is his intuitiveness, and using that to choose and shoot gaps hard (Rutgers's defense is undersized across the board so this is strategic). Despite being smallish (6'1/225 last year), Longa is surprisingly strong; this offseason he set a school record 605-lbs squat, and we saw this with an impressive arm-only rope-down of De'Veon Smith. But 225 is 225; both of Khalid Hill's highlight blocks were at Longa's expense.

So: fine, he's not Carl Diggs. The tradeoff not Carl Diggs is excellent range and athleticism. Lead blocks from 255 pound dudes aren't as much of a thing at WLB, where hopefully for the first time in his football career Longa will get to play the same position two years in a row. Either way, another All-B1G year is the floor.

ADAM: Round 10, Pick 4: Drew Ott, DE, Iowa 
Round 11, Pick 1: Austin Blythe, C/LG/RG, Iowa

OFFENSE: QB J.T. Barrett (OSU), WR Jordan Westerkamp (Neb), OT Jason Spriggs, (IU), TE Jake Butt (UM), C Austin Blythe (Iowa)

DEFENSE: DE Shilique Calhoun (MSU), DT Adolphus Washington (OSU), S Vonn Bell (OSU), CB Eric Murray (Minn), LB Raekwon McMillan (OSU), DE Drew Ott (Iowa)

I'm aware that taking anyone from Iowa's offense opens the door to possible snark, but I'll happily deal with that to take a guy who was second-team All-Big Ten and has the versatility to play anywhere on the interior line.

Blythe started all 13 games at center in 2013, but he was shuffled around in 2014 to meet Iowa's needs. He started six games at center, one at right guard, and six at left guard; in terms of versatility, he's Iowa's version of Graham Glasgow. This is very much I need since I'm currently fielding a one-man offensive line.

Iowa's line stats weren't very impressive in 2014 despite having a first and fourth-round draft pick at tackle. Bill Connelly assuaged any fear I had in his discussion of Iowa's poor adjusted line yards:

Rarely will you see something that incongruous. This tells you quite a bit about the quality of the running backs -- in terms of unadjusted stats, Iowa was top-50 in stuff rate (avoiding run stops behind the line) and power success rate but was just 87th in opportunity rate (carries of at least five yards), and if you wanted to pin the line's failings on the backs, that's a good place to start.

On defense I was looking for a strongside DE with pass-rush ability, and I think I've found him in Ott. The measureables are there;  6-4, 272 and a 2014 stat line of 7.5 sacks, 12 TFL, and 41.5 tackles. There's been a fair amount of discussion regarding his ability to maintain that level of production without Carl Davis and Louis Trinca-Pasat. I can understand, but with Adolphus Washington and Shilique Calhoun sharing the d-line I think Ott will fare just fine.

Like Blythe, Ott also brings versatility. He can't shift into the middle of the line, but Ott can hold the edge, rush the passer, and drop into coverage; he had 2 PBUs and an interception in 2014. NFL mocks raved about his coverage skills when evaluating his 2014 film while also noting his effectiveness at creating pressure despite not having high-end speed. (Here is the Maryland game they reference.)

Also: he eats raw eggsand the egg shell. The shell! I didn't even know you could do that! That is exactly what I want from a SDE in the Big Ten- a big ol' egg-shell eatin' fella.

BRIAN: In re Blythe:

SETH - Round 14, Pick 2:  Alex Lewis, left tackle, Nebraska

OFFENSE: QB Connor Cook (MSU), RB Corey Clement (WIS), WR Leonte Carroo (Rut), OC Jack Allen (MSU), OG Pat Elflein (OSU), OT Alex Lewis (Neb)

DEFENSE: Steve Longa (WLB), HSP Jabrill Peppers (Mich), DB Jordan Lucas (PSU), S Michael Caputo (Wis), CB Will Likely (Md)

I may as well stop neglecting the blindside. I don't think any of the Big Ten's LTs this year measure up to the top-of-the-first-round maulers that Lewans or Scherff were, but neither do the remaining options measure up to Conklin and Decker (who still takes a lot of bad angles, Brian; Ace got the better IMO). CBS's draft report calls Lewis (and not Marz) not far from the three elites in overall effectiveness. It also said he transferred from Colorado after serving time for a third degree assault charge. So he's mean.

And he's a lot like Spriggs i.e., long, athletic, and not strong. Lewis was a tight end his first year at Colorado, then a guard, logging his last 13 of 28 starts at left tackle for the Abdullah offense; with Cotton at LG that offense tipped profoundly to the left last year.

I found an "every snap" draft evaluation film for USC DE Leonard Williams (went 6th overall) that serves if you just watch the opposite side from the square:

The LEFT tackle, not the Alex Mitchell clone getting constantly run by on the right.

Yes that did not go well for the Williams v NotCotton&Lewis side. But you see what Lewis is: ++++footwork, and a long-armed, 6'6 frame that could house an NFL body one day, currently too small to pack a punch. Occasionally he spins a linebacker to open up a huge outside lane, or gets a fat guy touchdown (1:25 in the video above) that the mean old refs take away. Tommy Armstrong begged defenses to sack him with his runaround antics but Lewis allowed only two. And given he took a year off football in 2013 there's bigger upside here than a typical 5th year. Keywords are "as effective."

Round 14, Pick 3: Dan Voltz, center, Wisconsin

OFFENSE: QB Braxton Miller (OSU), WR Michael Thomas (OSU), WR DaeSean Hamilton (PSU), OT Jack Conklin (MSU), OC Dan Voltz (UW)

DEFENSE: DE Joey Bosa (OSU), DT Darius Hamilton (RU), NT Austin Johnson (PSU), OLB Darron Lee (OSU), CB Eli Apple (OSU), S Tyvis Powell (OSU)

Dan Voltz plays center for Wisconsin. He has 20 starts heading into his redshirt junior season. Scoutslikehim. I see no further need for explanation.

BRIAN: Round 14, Pick 4: Vince Biegel, LB, Wisconsin
Round 15, Pick 1: Briean Boddy-Calhoun, CB, Minnesota

OFFENSE: QB Christian Hackenberg(PSU), QB Cardale Jones(OSU), RB Ezekiel Elliot (OSU), WR Amara Darboh (M), OL Taylor Decker (OSU), OL Taylor Marz (WI).

DEFENSE: DT Anthony Zettel (PSU), DT Maliek Collins (Neb), LB Nyeem Wartman-White(PSU), LB Vince Biegel (WI), CB Jourdan Lewis (M), CB Briean Boddy-Calhoun (MN).

Thank you very much for your commentary on Taylor Decker's "angles," Seth. I could go with a consensus amongst NFL draft analysts that Decker is at the very top of prospects for next year's draft, or I could go with the guy who tried to recreate Indiana in last year's draftageddon. I'm going to put a hold on the everything so I can ponder which way I'll go.

...

Anyway. Vince Biegel has a mullet. It has the Wisconsin W carved into the side of it. This would be enough to pick him and move on confidently, a la Ace's most recent.

But wait, there's more: Biegel is the closest thing to Jake Ryan the 2015 Big Ten has on offer. Biegel racked up 16.5(!) TFLs as a redshirt sophomore, 7.5 of those sacks. Also he is a nutter:

"I don't know how I want to celebrate with you when you make a good play because I don't know if you're going to head butt me or jump on me," Wisconsin safety Michael Caputo said. "I keep my distance from him when he makes a good play."

At a strapping 6'4", 241 he's a perfect option at SAM, which will allow me to deploy Zettel at SDE and mitigate the fact that I don't have a Bosa. And he's got the salt to line up at DE against mean-ass spread offenses, SB Nation's Ian Boyd covered the Badgers' weird 2-4-5 defense in a Football Study Hall post, and struck on Biegel as key to its effectiveness against Auburn (they got shredded by OSU and made a change for the bowl). In that D he is basically playing a 3-4 end.

I will add another member of the secondary with Minnesota corner Briean Boddy-Calhoun. While I'm loathe to grab either 1) a Minnesota DB (the second of the draft, in fact) or 2) a guy who spells his name like that, BBC has the chops to overcome issues. Also I hope he screams "THIS IS BBC NEWS [EXPLETIVES]" whenever he does something good on the field.

Last year was the first he was actually available after tearing his ACL as a JUCO transfer, and he responded with 5 INTs, a first-team All Big Ten nod from the media and second team from the coaches, and Minnesota's DB of the year award... ahead of Eric Murray.

CBS has him the best-ranked Big Ten corner for the upcoming draft.

THAT WHICH HAS NOW OCCURRED

THAT WHICH WILL OCCUR IN THE NEAR FUTURE

Ace finishes drafting his All Bucks Go Bucks team.