Barron – MGoBlog
Previously: Zak Irvin, Aubrey Dawkins, Spike Albrecht, Ricky Doyle, Mark Donnal, and Max Bielfeldt
If nothing else, Kam Chatman’s freshman season reinforced how impressive Glenn Robinson’s career was at Michigan. Chatman, like Robinson, was a highly-touted prospect who was expected to step in and play 30 minutes a night right away; unlike Glenn, Kam struggled mightily and never adjusted to the college game well enough to merit a spot in the rotation. While classmates saw increased minutes after Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton were injured, Kam slowly disappeared, unable to morph Beilein’s malleable “power forward” spot enough to fit his skills.
It was easy to buy in before the season – Chatman and a new big man (Donnal or Doyle) were expected to hold down the front-court, but Doyle, who was far less highly-recruited, outperformed Chatman easily. Beilein’s offensive system is mythologized and Chatman’s struggles can be explained away, but many other Beilein products have excelled at a young age and the four can be simplified to fit Michigan’s needs.
As a lefty at his size, Chatman is a natural fit for the the four – he operates from the right side of the floor (instead of moving left-to-right as a three like Manny Harris or a young Nik Stauskas, for example) and can theoretically cover all variations of the power forward: a swingman, a traditional post,or a designated space-and-shoot big. Michigan’s power forward position has looked different with different players: GRIII was essentially an outlet to finish around the rim, spacing the floor credibly enough to give Burke, Stauskas, and LeVert enough room to operate; Zack Novak was a fellow left-handed player who was basically a guard masquerading as a forward on defense. Unfortunately, Chatman never found a niche or a role, relegating him to the bench.
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It’s pretty much impossible to ignore some glaring weaknesses that Chatman has as a freshman. Here are a few representative statistics:
- He shot 36% from two (87 attempts), 26% from three (38), and 68% (28) from the free throw line. That’s 0.74 points per shot attempt (0.80 points per shot equivalent).
- Chatman’s season-long eFG% was 36.8, putting him among current and former B1G players like Jeremy Hollowell, Idong Ibok, Alvin Ellis, and Alex Legion.
- In games against Kenpom Top 100 opponents (adjusted for game site), he had an offensive rating of just 68.5. Over the entire season, only six rotational B1G players posted worse efficiency numbers in the last eight years.
- His assist rate was 10.4, not bad for a power forward, but any positive there was negated by his turnover rate of 19.2.
- After the new year, Chatman played less than ten minutes in more than half of Michigan’s games.
- He scored in double digits thrice in 32 games – two of those came against teams outside the Kenpom Top 200.
To be fair, Chatman was just 18 years old for all of last season, frequently playing against guys three or four years older than him and almost never playing against guys younger than him. Of the top 15 four stars in Chatman’s recruiting cycle, Kam was the youngest by at least five months; of those players, Melo Trimble was clearly the best – outside of him, there were few notable contributors and even fewer starters on good teams. And it should be noticed that Kam’s struggles came in the context of how stagnant the offense looked last year – it’s not his fault that the fives were poor screeners in the pick-and-roll game, for example.
Still, this baptism by fire was largely a failure. Chatman never seemed to adjust to the speed of the college game – whether he was physically or mentally overwhelmed (or both) isn’t clear, but it was woefully apparent that he was not a viable solution in Glenn Robinson’s absence. Fortunately the emergence of Aubrey Dawkins (who’s almost a full year older than Chatman) mitigated that, but Michigan would benefit immensely if Kam performed to the level that his pedigree as a prospect suggests.
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There’s not a lot of optimism here. As per Chatman’s profile – decent rebounder, awful efficiency, a nominal stretch big – there are some names that are to be expected: Smotrycz is familiar, Jordan Sibert eventually transferred to Dayton and starred there, and Jeff Brooks, the only guy to show up twice in Kam’s top ten, was a pretty good sidekick when Talor Battle was at Penn State. In fact, if you’re looking to cherry-pick a name to project substantial improvement for Chatman, Brooks is the best choice:
Even though Brooks drastically increased his minutes over the course of his career, he was able to improve across the board – his offensive rating leapt from 89.9 to 117.4 in two years after an increase in usage also. Like Chatman, his TO rate was much higher than his assist rate, but they evened out by the time he was a senior. Brooks’s shooting line (44/25/36) was almost completely different (59/40/74) after his eligibility expired. Like Chatman, Brooks was especially young for his class – and he was actually a Top 100 recruit, despite going to Penn State.
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From Chatman’s perspective, there’s plenty of time to develop – he was never going to be a one-and-done type, so a disappointing freshman season doesn’t hurt his potential much, if at all. The problem is that there are a handful of viable options at the four outside of Chatman – Moritz Wagner is a complete wild card, but he will primarily be a four; Zak Irvin is capable of playing there in a pinch, though I suspect that the coaches don’t prefer that; DJ Wilson – who I think is a five – could feasibly be a four as well. For a position that was assumed to be Chatman’s to lose last year, there’s a lot of options there now and Kam could very well get lost in the shuffle. I suspect that he’ll play plenty during the non-conference portion of the schedule as Beilein figures out his rotation – after that, it’s anyone’s guess.