NOTE: Michigan baseball plays their NCAA Tournament opener against Bradley starting RIGHT NOW. You can watch it on ESPN3.
Harbaugh is a draw, but recruits will need to see results. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]
As Michigan heads into a big visit weekend before what should be an eventful month of June, when the coaches make their satellite camp tour, it's a good time for a recruiting mailbag. No need for a preamble; let's get straight to the questions.
@AceAnbender What matters more for 2016 recruits - onsite visit or how the team looks on the field this fall? #MGoMailbag
— MysterA (@NateAdema) May 29, 2015
This will depend on the prospect to a certain extent. For recruits focused more on relationships with coaches, facilities, academic support, and the like, on-campus visits should be the primary way Michigan pushes for a commitment. For recruits intent on competing for conference and national titles, Michigan is going to have to show some progress this season before they haul in guys hell-bent on collecting rings.
That's oversimplifying matters, of course; recruits rarely commit to a school without a great on-campus visit experience, and winning is going to help no matter what. After the way last year's recruiting deteriorated along with the team's performance, however, it's safe to say on-field results will be more important this year for recruiting than a normal year. (Whatever that is.) Jim Harbaugh's reputation may precede him, but the program has been down for long enough that a lot of top prospects—especially from outside the region—are going to want to see the Wolverines take a step forward before making a four- or five-year commitment.
[Hit THE JUMP for a comparison of Harbaugh's offer approach to Hoke's, the position group in need of a solid '16 haul, and a guess or two at M's next commitment.]
What is your view of the Harbaugh's approach to offers vs hoke's approach? Harbaugh has sent out a ton more offers, more nationally, and has made some of them the non-commitable type. Hoke sent out fewer and was much more regional.
Thanks,
Jason
As with many of the things Harbaugh has done with recruiting since he took over, I think this is a much-needed adaptation to the current way top programs recruit, especially with high level prospects. Landing the best of the best usually requires getting in early, and as we've seen, that can mean extending an offer as early as a recruit's freshman year or even 8th grade; "offers" at that point are more a means of expressing serious interest than anything else anyway. They're relatively low risk—if a prospect falls down M's board for one reason or another, there's plenty of time to back off—and the potential reward is quite high.
The focus on more out-of-region recruits is a little more high-risk; it's just hard to consistently pull in recruits from California and Texas. Logistical issues can impede a recruitment even if a prospect has legitimate interest; if a recruit can't or won't pay his way for an unofficial visit prior to his senior season, it's hard to make up ground on schools within driving distance, especially with recruits committing earlier and earlier these days.
Harbaugh's found a great workaround with the satellite camp tour, and the staff has also turned their focus more towards Midwest recruits after their initial flurry of offers to top national prospects. Striking a balance will be important, but I think Harbaugh's strategy will pay off, and will do so even more down the road as he reestablishes old recruiting connections and forges new ones.
As for committable/non-committable offers, Steve Lorenz posted a great rundown of Michigan's general strategy last week ($):
One thing we're already aware of: Michigan is putting out some offers that are not immediately committable. Most schools are straight-forward about these types of offers, and you can add the Wolverines to that list. The players that get these offers are aware of what the staff's motives are behind them. Despite the high amount of offers, a lot less of these offers are "non-committable" than you would probably think.
Why is that? One reason Michigan has cast out a wide net in the 2016 is because this staff is more than comfortable with their ability to develop players. There are always going to be top targets on every coaching staff's board, but the "take" net is wider because Harbaugh and company believe in their ability to turn relatively under-recruited players into contributors at the college level.
By my understanding, non-committable offers tend to be of the "we're very interested, but we're waiting on a prospect or two higher on the board" variety, and so long as the coaches are up front with explaining that—and I've seen nothing to the contrary—then there's no problem here.
Michigan seems to be in on all sorts of big names but if they were to really hit a home run on one particular group in this cycle what would be the ideal one? Essentially would an all-star haul at OL, DL or LB be the most important for 2016 and the program as it stands right now? Seems like any of the three are within the realm of possibility with the names they’re in on.
With Michigan set to lose all three of their starting linebackers—Bolden, Morgan, and Ross—after this season to graduation, landing a solid haul at that position group would be huge. The transfer of Michael Ferns leaves M a little light on bodies at linebacker for 2017.
The good news is linebacker could very well end up as the strongest group in this recruiting class. Michigan already has Dele' Harding and David Reese in the fold; while Reese could end up at fullback, he'll get a chance to stick as an inside linebacker. The Wolverines are among the favorites for several excellent prospects, including Jonathan Jones, Caleb Kelly, Camilo Eifler, Dontavious Jackson, Devin Bush Jr., and Xavier Kelly. Jones looks like a very good bet to end up in the class sooner or later, and if Michigan can add even one or two of the other players on that list, they'll have done quite well for themselves.
@AceAnbender simple one for ya, whos our next commit? #MGoMailbag
— Andrew Wink (@andrewwink) May 29, 2015
As I said in yesterday's recruiting roundup, we're not quite on commit watch for anybody*, but a couple guys on this weekend's visitor list are distinct possibilities. If Michigan offers four-star IN all-purpose back Chris Evans, which seems likely given the visit, there's a good chance he accepts it, and that could happen quickly. Three-star Paramus Catholic WR Donald Stewart will also be in Ann Arbor this weekend, and while he's not expected to commit while on campus, it's hard to rule it out when he's got Michigan atop his list before ever seeing the school.
*Yes, I'll acknowledge the word of a silent commit coming from Sam Webb on The Victors Board. Webb mentioned that this prospect is keeping word quiet for now because he doesn't want a public announcement to affect his upcoming visits, so it's unclear how imminently a commitment would happen, and since the prospect is checking out other schools there's always the chance this falls through.