Passing UFR: Rudock vs Nebraska

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THING THINGS: Hoo boy, this thing was full of Michigan loss déjà vu. Iowa leapt out to a 17 point lead without doing much of anything on offense. Nebraska came back without doing much of anything on offense, with the capper an 80-yard punt return against Iowa's dinosaur punt formation—one that followed a 43-yarder earlier in the game.

Iowa's tailbacks averaged exactly 3.4 yards a carry each with a long of 15 yards; Rudock completed half his passes for a bleah 6.1 YPA.

CHRONOLOGY THINGS: This was the week after Wisconsin.

[After the JUMP: duuuuude wat]

This didn't go as well as the other games.

Nooooope. It contains the play that I'm sure most Iowa fans remember as their Rudock epitaph:

The Kinnick crowd reacted to that approximately as well as Michigan Stadium did when Shane Morris got left in the Minnesota game… and it's hard to argue. I mean, good gravy. That is a read that should be blazingly obvious presnap, what with the safety seven yards off the LOS. Post-snap it gets even more obvious, as that safety wanders around the LOS for three steps before his ohshiiiii kicks in.

His interception was also bad. He does not see a safety in a robber position and thunks it into his chest after staring his TE down:

That is clearly not a mistake he makes often, at least.

The other one… woof. And unfortunately for Iowa fans last year and Michigan fans this year, it was not an isolated incident. Here's a

probably less rapturous CHART

chart:

Jake Rudock

That isn't the worst we've seen in this column by a long shot; it is a large step down from the other three games he's featured in around here, especially when you consider the DO/CA distribution in the Northwestern game.

Rudock had three starred throws in this game: the interception, the WTF missed read that led the column, and a similar misread on the play before the Tevaun Smith touchdown. He also had way more inaccurate throws in this game that we've become accustomed to.

I would like some caveats to make me feel better.

Rudock is working in a tough environment. Tevaun Smith helped him out by turning a quick hitch for a first down into a touchdown; nobody else who gets targeted is a plus player. Only Smith gets open consistently. Other receivers often give Rudock windows like this:

Which is to say "no windows." That's the right read, as Nebraska vacates the center of the field. Martin-Manley's route does nothing to shake the DB and the DB wins a one-on-one battle.

As a result, the moments when his guys do get open shock and amaze. This 25-yard corner route from Martin-Manley turns the DB around and grabs yards of space:

That happens all the time in college… just not in Iowa games. You know how NFL scouts complain that because of these newfangled college offenses they have no idea whether quarterbacks can hit tight windows anymore? They do not say that about Iowa QBs.

I mean, this is depressing: Rudock knows the drag is no good and pumps on it, then throws it anyway because nothing else is any good either.

Meanwhile Iowa's interior OL again got obliterated by the opposition—he was plowed in the face just as he threw a bomb to Powell that was a yard or two off—and he's working with playcalling like "that just worked so let's run the exact same thing again." There's no question Iowa fans will be watching Rudock with keen interest this fall to see whether their problems were localized or systemic.

You seem to be having some issues assigning credit and blame here.

I am. The second play I just linked there is one on which Rudock ends up throwing behind his tight end. The tight end can only reach out one hand and bat at the ball. But I thought that was not on Rudock because the play before we'd literally seen the same route. The first one sees the linebacker turn for the seam and Duzey turn around without interference:

The second sees the linebacker get a jam just as Duzey goes into his break; Duzey stumbles forward; the pass appears to be where Duzey would have been if he had not suffered the linebacker's hands on him.

That throw is probably behind him in any case but the stumble takes it from catchable to not. I think I'm a lot more aware of this because I'm just trying to evaluate one guy, which means that these have probably been kinder to the QB and harsher on the WRs than the average UFR.

On the other hand…

(Iowa's receivers are still bad.)

What did this game change about your Rudock opinion?

He is not quite the unstoppable throw god he appeared to be in the other three games. (Yes, even Maryland, where so much of the offensive sputter was not on his shoulders.) This game had some weird periods. There was one in which Rudock was throwing it deep on routes that were bad ideas…

…when he had open short stuff to move the ball some. Bookending that period were two WTF decisions. The first was play action on which Rudock had all day and Tevaun Smith broke open for a big gain. Rudock didn't see it (on a two man route!) and ran around for a yard. The second was the WTF missed touchdown that led the column.

In past games Rudock's excessive conservatism seemed either fictional or a result of environmental factors. In this one he alternated boggling decisions to not throw deep with boggling decisions to do so.

Positive: Rudock also showed a couple of improv flips when he got chased on waggles.

What's basically the same?

Rudock's at his best throwing timing routes for YAC.

He is still very accurate when afforded an opportunity to set his feet, step into a throw, and hit a receiver over the middle.

But remember what I said in the last one about Rudock being loathe to adjust his throws to coverage? I think that's a real issue.

He'll find guys in situations where they are nominally covered but the defender is in a disadvantageous position. His natural inclination is to try to make a perfect throw in the small window provided. He hits these throws frequently, but at times you want him to just punt up a jump ball. This throw in the overtime period is an excellent example:

That is a desperate linebacker who is not likely to execute perfect shoryuken technique. If you focus less on making the best throw and instead try to put it in a place where your tight end definitely has an opportunity, you are more likely to keeck touchdown.

The throw is fine as far as it goes—I marked it catchable—and you want that tight end to help a brother out, sure. As an isolated play it's fine. Since it is part of a pattern in which Rudock does not react to post-snap coverage with his throws (throwing a back-shoulder fade on those wheel routes his WRs get dominated on, etc.), it's a weakness.

This third and ten on which Iowa's running four verts is another example:

A crappy throw is a better throw than an almost perfect one on that play. You've got a DB with his back to the play and no help for him. Martin-Manley's not exactly Braylon but you've got a better shot at a completion (or a flag) if you let your guy go make a play by leaving it short. Instead Rudock goes for the whiz bang Peyton Manning pass and misses.

I mean, yes, you'd like it if any receiver could get even one step on a DB on this play. There's an adjustment there that's not being made.

Have an example of Rudock's running ability?

Sure. Here you go.

He's okay. Definitely a guy you could run a few times on a zone read and be pleased with the results.

(By the way, this is another problem with the Iowa offense: that is their run game from the shotgun. Period. I think I've seen maybe two runs that were not QB draws when Iowa was in the gun, and this is a third of their season now. I wonder if Kirk Ferentz watches spread 'n' shred teams and just sighs expansively.)

What does it mean for 2015?

Well, we knew that Rudock had some stinkers in here and this was one of them. It was a bad game that looks like one of Michigan's better performances from last year, though, so he's got that going for him.