Softball Big Ten Review and Regional Preview

[Ed-S: written at our request.]

Big Ten Champions

THE ESSENTIALS

THE SCHEDULE

The NCAA regional is a double-elimination tournament, so the only team Michigan is guaranteed to play is Oakland; if all goes chalk, Michigan would play Cal in Game 3 and go from there.

Big Ten Review

For the first time since 2005, Michigan softball swept the Big Ten championships, taking home the regular season crown after a tightly contested race with Minnesota and the tournament crown after downing PSU, Northwestern, and Nebraska in dominant fashion.

The Wolverines came into Big Ten play slightly chastened by a home loss to Kent State and their brilliant pitcher, but nevertheless riding a brilliant non-conference performance.  MGoSoftball has already ably reviewed that portion of the season (http://mgoblog.com/diaries/softball-mid-season-report).

After exacting revenge against KSU and pounding Bowling Green, the Wolverines charged into Big Ten play with a three game set at Ohio State, racking up double-digit wins in all three games.  Two games into the Iowa series, things were looking on track for continued success.  Halfway through the final game of the series, though, the Wolverines defense collapsed, blowing a 4-run lead and handing the lowly Hawkeyes an unlikely upset at Alumni Field.  There wasn't much time to recover, either, as Michigan had to travel up to Minneosta for a 3-game set against the nationally-ranked Golden Gophers, headlined by star pitcher Sara Groenewegen.  After a 9-1 run rule drubbing and a blown 3-run lead early in the second game, it looked like Michigan's magical season was unravelling all too quickly.

Fortunately, something clicked in those Maize & Blue minds after that bad 2nd inning in Minnesota, and the Wolverines bounced back.  They tied the game in the 3rd, and went on to win 9-4, following up that performance with an Easter Sunday run-rule blowout, returning the 9-1 favor that Minnesota had handed out that Friday.

From that point on, Michigan has not looked back.  Since the loss to Minnesota, Michigan has won 20 straight games, including 13 via the run-rule and 2 no-hitters from sophomore stand-out Megan Betsa.

The end of the Big Ten season found the Wolverines in possession of an array of awards, headlined by Megan Betsa as the conference pitcher of the year and Carol Hutchins as the coach of the year.  Multiple Wolverines found their way onto the 1st, 2nd, and defensive teams.  Sierra Romero won the tournament MVP award and also the inaugural ESPNW national player of the year award as well (she is a finalist for the more prestigious player of the year award, which will be announced later).  The brilliance of the team's performance earned Michigan the #3 overall seed in the NCAA tournament and the right to host a regional and, if they win through, a super-regional as well.

Regional Opponents

Three teams will be coming to Ann Arbor this weekend with their eyes on a trip to the super-regionals.  We'll look at Oakland, the #4 seed in the region, first, since they're our Friday opponent, then at #2 seed California and #3 seed Pittsburgh after that.

[After the jump.]

Oakland

Oakland comes into the regional on the strength of an auto-bid out of the Horizon League, where they defeated Wright State to win the championship.  Oakland also won the regular season crown in the Horizon, going 14-6 in conference, 27-22 overall.  Their record is rather lackluster, full of dubious losses (Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, Bethune-Cookman, etc.) and no real impressive wins.

They do have a few young ladies who can put the ball in play, with 4 of their regular players hitting over .360 for the season.  The biggest offensive threats come from Sara Cupp, who has 9 long balls and an on-base of .500 and Sarah Hartley, who has 11 homers on the season.  In the circle, expect to see Erin Kownacki, who has pitched about half of the Golden Grizzlies innings on the year and leads the team with a respectable 2.43 ERA.  Her numbers don't dazzle, but they are better than a number of Big Ten pitchers Michigan has faced this year, and so Michigan can't expect to take the day off.  That said, Oakland's numbers are heavily propped up by a very weak schedule, and anything other than a 2-and-done regional will probably be considered a success for them.  If Michigan does not dispose of this team with relative ease, that will raise some questions.

California

The Golden Bears of California come out of the perennially brutal Pac-12 conference somewhat the worse for wear.  A strong team with a winning tradition, 2015 has not been their best year, but they still pack sufficient punch to test Michigan and the other teams in the regional.  Cal finished 7th in the Pac-12, going only 10-14 in conference play after a scorching 28-2 non-conference performance.  While they didn't play the sort of non-conference gauntlet that Michigan faces every year, they took on some tough teams and acquired quality wins against the likes of Tennessee and Florida State.  A handful of good wins in the Pac-12 combined with the good non-conference record to put Cal well inside the tournament field, despite taking it on the chin from some of the heavy hitters out West.

On offense, it looks like Cal has a pretty clear division of labor, with Jazmyn Jackson and Britt Vonk both hitting well over .400, but with very low power numbers.  Danielle Henderson and Cheyenne Cordes, meanwhile, bring the punch in the Bears line up as the only major home-run threats on the team.  Henderson looks like the real star of the show, hitting in the high .300s and with an on-base well over .500 (she draws a great many walks).  If Michigan can limit Henderson's opportunities for multiple RBIs, this line-up can be contained.  If those top 4 hitters get going, though, Michigan will need to score a lot of runs.

On the other side of the ball, Sutherland-Finch and Trzcinski split the action, with Sutherland-Finch having a slight edge in innings pitched, while Trczinski's ERA is a notch higher.  Both are in the mid 3.00s in terms of ERA - not elite numbers, but understandable given the difficulty of Pac-12 play.  Sutherland-Finch is more of the strike-out artist, but is also a little more prone to giving up the long ball, giving Cal's coaches a real question regarding how to confront Michigan's offense.  Regardless of what they do, Michigan should have the advantage on both sides of the ball in this match-up so long as we execute.  Cal is a capable team, though, and if they take one from Michigan over the weekend, it will not be a shock.  If they take two, that would be a real disappointment.

Pittsburgh

The last opponent in the regional is the Pitt Panthers.  The Panthers are in the tournament for the first time in school history on an at-large bid after going 35-20 overall, but only 11-13 in the ACC (admittedly a better conference than I had realized).  They have a few bad losses on their record, including two to B10 bottom-dwellers Penn State, and not a lot of impressive Ws.  For the most part they beat the teams they should beat, and lost to the teams they should lose to - a solid recipe for receiving a middling tourney seed.

On offense, Pitt shares the wealth.  5 differeent hitters bat over .300, but none higher than .358 (their on-base numbers are also closely grouped, all right around .400).  The power comes from Taylor and to some extent Pickett and Modic - everyone else's power numbers are low.  Unlike Cal, this doesn't look like an offense where you have to dodge around a few big guns.  The problem instead is navigating a steady stream of solid players.  The name of the game will be scattering the hits, not letting Pitt string anything together.  If we stick to that plan, we should be able to keep them from plating too many runs.

In the circle, King is the ace of the staff, owning most of Pitt's innings on the year and a substantial lead in ERA.  She's not especially K-oriented, and gives up a few more walks than she'd like.  If we can get to her, there aren't many more options - Pitt will probably have to turn to to Harris, but her numbers do not inspire confidence against our line-up.

Outlook, and Michigan Players to Watch

In terms of the overall outlook Michigan comes in as the heavy favorite, and for good reason.  All the teams we face have significant weaknesses.  None can match our top-to-bottom power and none of the pitchers in the regional can match Wagner or Betsa's numbers.  I can see Cal stealing a game from us; I have a hard time seeing Oakland or Pitt doing so (although anything is possible, of course).  I would project this regional going according to chalk, with Pitt possibly taking one from Cal and Cal possibly taking one from us.  In the end, Michigan should win through, barring injury or fluke.

Finally, for the newcomers to the softball program, welcome!  A few Michigan players whose names you'll want to know:

For pitching, Megan Betsa will probably be the starter and major focus for the weekend.  As a sophomore she has taken over the ace role in the lineup, leading the team in ERA & innings-pitched.  She's a little more prone to giving up the HR than senior Haylie Wagner, but also is an absolute master of the strike-out, having delivered double-digit K games multiple times this season.  Wagner will likely appear as well, and she brings a good change of pace.  Look for her to induce a lot of ground-outs and pop-outs, with a smaller sprinkling of Ks.

On offense, the headliner is, of course, Sierra Romero.  She is in the nation's elite in many offensive categories, and is a one-of-a-kind blend of hitting for power and for average.  She is leading the team by wide margins in batting average (.469) and on-base (.624), and holds a narrow lead in HRs.  She holds multiple Michigan records and at least one NCAA record as well (career grand slams - 10).  It's hard to pick just one other player to focus on, but I have to mention Kelly Christner, this year's biggest break-out star.  She's also hitting well over .400, gets on base over half the time, and has 18 long balls.  The two of them provide a one-two punch, the likes of which few teams can match.

Hope you can make it down to Alumni Field for the game to cheer on the team!  Lots of great action lies ahead for this truly remarkable group of women.