Roster Set, Let's Talk Minutes: Nominal Frontcourt

Previously: nominal backcourt

"Power" Forward

[Eric Upchurch]

Starter: Zak Irvin (Jr.)
Backups: Kam Chatman (So.), DJ Wilson (Fr.*), Moritz Wagner (Fr.)

On a roster that is suddenly brimming with depth this is the spot at which minutes are tightest. The competition here is not really between Irvin and the guys listed as backups—Irvin's playing 30+ minutes guaranteed—but between Kam Chatman, DJ Wilson, Moritz Wagner, and the two guys we covered as "small" forwards. There's about 50 minutes to divide up between the five players.

This preview projects that the bulk of those minutes go to Aubrey Dawkins and Duncan Robinson. Chatman shot 36/26 last year, Wilson is coming off a redshirt after looking pretty bad in 26 minutes before his injury, and Wagner is physically reminiscent of a freshman Caris LeVert. Dawkins was already a pretty good Big Ten player last year and is likely to improve; Robinson is shooting is shooting is shooting on a John Beilein team. They're getting minutes. These guys will get the squeeze.

It is reasonable to expect that one of the three candidates here steps forwards to become a quality bench player. Who that will be is anyone's guess. Chatman settled down late in the year, using his handle and passing ability to create some baskets. The coaches have been talking up Wilson's "productive" redshirt year… and I've also heard that he stepped it up in a big way after Wagner came in on an official visit and took it to him.

A redshirt for someone seems like a good idea. That would probably be Wagner… if he's not clearly better. Which is a possibility. I just don't know, man.

What I do know: Zak Irvin's going to be on the court a lot. Last year we asked him to become a "threes AND" guy. Progress in that department was dubious at best until a late surge forced upon him by the injury issues. Alex covered his remarkable uptick in things other than shots:

Even on the post-apocalypse roster it took several games for Irvin to grok the fact that he had to be Nik Stauskas now. When he did grasp it, he turned in the finest stretch of his Michigan career by some distance. It felt like he had grasped not only his role but how to create shots in the Beilein offense. While his role should be less prominent on next year's roster if only because he's no longer Dion Harris, the efficiency of possessions he uses promises to shoot up.

Irvin will be a big deal for other things, as well. He's going to be drawing guys Caleb Swanigan at (apparently) Purdue. Nigel Hayes at Wisconsin. And so forth and so on. Michigan has never been particularly good defensively at the 4 because of the guys they run out there at the spot; Irvin seems better able to hack it than just about anyone Beilein has had at Michigan. Glenn Robinson was pretty good as a sophomore. Other than that…? If Irvin can rebound at the clip he did late in the year and prove something other than weak spot on D, Michigan will benefit greatly.

Minute projection: Irvin 30, Miscellaneous 10.

[After the JUMP: Doyle, rebounding philosophies, and so forth.]

Center

AAHHHHH I WILL SWEAT ON YOU [Bryan Fuller]

Starter: Ricky Doyle (So.)
Backups: Mark Donnal (So.*), DJ Wilson (Fr.*)

When Ricky Doyle committed to Michigan, he was expecting to redshirt. When Doyle watched Michigan play Kentucky in the elite eight as a high school senior, he was expecting to redshirt. By the time he arrived in Ann Arbor he was the starter by default after Horford's transfer and the NCAA's trolling of Mitch McGary.

All things considered, he did pretty well with the accelerated timeline. Against Syracuse Doyle spurred the first thousand of a million different internet dudes exclaiming "Doyle Rules." I had no idea what you were talking, about, internet, until I Googled it ten seconds ago. I am very disappoint, internet. I suppose some of you were ten when any given Adam Sandler movie came out. You are grudgingly excused. Anyone approximately my age has some explaining to do.

Anyway, against Syracuse Doyle burst onto the scene with a series of late buckets and critical offensive rebounds. That game is his season in 24 minutes: efficient, slightly low-usage shooting, a lot of offensive rebounds (5!), not many defensive rebounds (1). That pattern continued for the bulk of the year. He shot a Morgan-esque 61% from the floor, had an excellent OREB rate (10.4%), and sucked in DREBs like Nnanna Egwu. This is to say "did not suck in DREBs at all."

Some of this was gameplan. Michigan bigs spent the year boxing out to the exclusion of all else, including grabbing the ball. That was what paved the way for things like "six-foot-nothing point guard cracks the Kenpom DREB leaderboard." Meanwhile Michigan's overall DREB rate was almost identical to last year's. They did drop from 7th to 13th in the league, but a lot of that was due to the injuries. Spike, MAAR, and Dawkins, the main playing-time beneficiaries, were all major downgrades on Walton, LeVert, and Chatman.

I'd be really interested to know if there was much difference in team rebounding between Doyle and Bielfeldt. Bielfeldt's individual numbers were way better than Doyle, but when he got big minutes things didn't go well on the boards:

• MSU: 33 minutes, 37% opponent OREB rate
• Iowa: 20 minutes, 43% OREB
• Illinois: 29 minutes, 32% OREB
• also Illinois: 31 minutes, 34% OREB
• Wisconsin: 21 minutes, 44% OREB

Michigan also got blown out in that department when Bielfeldt didn't play much, but it didn't seem like he was much of a solution despite his gaudy tempo-free stats.

This rather long aside is an attempt to explain that I didn't feel like Doyle's unimpressive DREB numbers had much impact on Michigan's ability to win games. (I've been skeptical about individual rebounding stats meaning much ever since I looked at the Pistons in the immediate aftermath of Ben Wallace's departure and their rebounding stats didn't change at all.) It's a common assertion in the basketball stats community that defensive rebounding is a team activity while offensive rebounding is an individual skill.

If that's true, then Doyle's promising start on OREBs is more important than the meh DREBs. And the rest of his stats are similarly enticing. Amongst players with qualifying minutes he led the team in ORTG thanks to that shooting percentage and an absolutely-terrific-for-a-post 12.0 TO rate. He drew a ton of fouls for a Beilein player, and committed them at a reasonable-for-a-post 4.0 per 40. The context there helps, as well: Michigan had fewer free pick-and-roll dunks than they had at any time in the last few years; Doyle got some of that offense by posting up gentlemen. He had the occasional take that cocked eyebrows across Michigan's fanbase: remember that time he clubberated Frank Kaminsky?

Doyle does have to get much better with his hands. Too many balls doinked off them this year, contributing to that DREB rate and limiting his usage somewhat. When that happens to bigs it's often the case that their hands are not quite as oversized as the rest of their body and there's not much you can do about it. I'm not sure if that's what's going on with Doyle or not, but I have the feeling that'll be a long-term frustration.

Despite that I'm extremely high on him as the starting center. His minutes last year were limited thanks to endurance. He was injured in preseason and then came down with a strange long-lasting bug midseason; half the time he came out it seemed clear that he was just exhausted. Some better luck and a summer at Camp Sanderson should repair that problem; reasonable advancements in all the departments freshman bigs usually struggle in should mean Michigan has a find in Doyle.

A lot rests on that since Mark Donnal was clearly overwhelmed a year ago. Donnal was a massive liability on defense, committer of 6.4(!) fouls per 40 and target of all teams when he entered the game. A little bit of outside shooting could not make up for that.

There are things that seem like they can get fixed and things that do not seem like they can get fixed, and Donnal's issues shaded towards the latter. Outside of five stars, freshman bigs are like freshman offensive linemen—almost always terrible—but Donnal had the benefit of a redshirt year to attempt to mitigate some of his issues and didn't come out of it able to check many folks. Despite the fact Doyle and Donnal are listed at the same height and just five pounds different on the roster, Donnal looks and feels small compared to his compatriot. That probably won't change either.

Donnal can hypothetically pull opposing centers to the perimeter. He shot 37% from three last year—the problem is he averaged well under one attempt per game. His best path to a significant role is to get a lot better on D and to make the pick and pop game a major factor. I think he's been passed for good.

Michigan has repeatedly mentioned that they don't see DJ Wilson as a center, long-term. Short-term, they appear to be dealing with the fact that they might be playing a stick insect at the five when the situation dictates it. (That situation: foul trouble.) Wilson does have one major asset as a post: his pogo stick legs and long arms give him a shot-altering potential that nobody else on the roster has. Bacari Alexander referenced Evan Smotrycz as a comparison for Wilson's role this year, and that's on point: he's a four. You'll see him at center a bit because your third center plays no matter who you are.

Minute projection: Doyle 25, Donnal 10, Wilson 5.